America's Energy Future Technology and Transformation (2009) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
3 Key Results from Technology Assessments
3 Key Results from Technology Assessments
Pages 81-132
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From page 81... ...
Additional detailed supporting information can be found in Part 2 of this report and in the following National Academies reports derived from this America's Energy Future (AEF) Phase I study: • Real Prospects for Energy Efficiency in the United States (NAS NAE-NRC, 2009c; available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.
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From page 82... ...
Using discounted cash flow1 and accounting for the lifetimes of technolo gies and infrastructures involved, the reported efficiency investments in buildings generally pay for themselves in 2–3 years. For the industrial and transportation sectors, the AEF Committee relied on results from the report by the America's Energy Future Panel on Energy Efficiency Technologies (NAS-NAE-NRC, 2009c)
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From page 83... ...
show that a cumulative investment of $440 billion4 in existing technology between 2010 and 2030 could produce an annual savings of $170 billion in reduced energy costs. Advanced technologies just emerging or under development promise even greater gains in energy efficiency.
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From page 84... ...
greenhouse gas emissions6 arising from energy use. The sector is dominated by use of the nation's highways, for both freight and passengers.
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From page 85... ...
Improvements in battery and fuel-cell technologies are expected to pave the way for possible large-scale deployments of BEVs and HFCVs in the 2020–2035 period. Because BEVs and HFCVs could reduce and ultimately eliminate the need for petroleum in transportation, they could also reduce and possibly even eliminate LDV tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions.
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From page 86... ...
8Increases in passenger airliner efficiency will also benefit air freight transport. 9Further details on the potential improvements in these industries can be found in Chapter 4 in Part 2 of this report and in the report of the America's Energy Future Panel on Energy Ef ficiency Technologies (NAS-NAE-NRC, 2009c)
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From page 87... ...
Barriers to Deployment and Drivers of Efficiency Numerous barriers impede deployment of energy efficiency technologies in each of the sectors previously discussed. In the buildings sector, regulatory policies do not usually reward utility investments in energy efficiency; building owners in rental markets and builders are not responsible for paying energy costs and thus lack incentives to make investments that reduce energy use; information about
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From page 88... ...
In the transportation sector, barriers that limit energy efficiency include the lack of clear signals about future oil prices (expectations for future prices strongly affect technology and investment decisions) and the lack of sufficient production capability to manufacture energy-efficient vehicles across vehicle platforms.
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From page 89... ...
The nation could reduce its dependence on imported oil by producing alternative liquid transportation fuels from domestically available resources to replace gasoline and diesel, and thereby increase energy security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Two abundant domestic resources with such potential are biomass and coal.
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From page 90... ...
To ensure a sustain able biomass supply overall, a systematic assessment of the resource base -- which addresses environmental, public, and private concerns simultaneously -- is needed. Conversion Technologies Two conversion processes can be used to produce liquid fuels from biomass: bio chemical conversion and thermochemical conversion.
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From page 91... ...
By 2035, up to 1.7 million bbl/d of gasoline equivalent could be produced in this manner, resulting in about a 20 percent reduction in oil used for LDVs at current consumption levels. Thermochemical Conversion Without geologic CO2 storage, technologies for the indirect liquefaction of coal to transportation fuels could be commercially deployable today, but life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions would be more than twice the CO2 emissions of petroleumbased fuels.
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From page 92... ...
The committee estimates that at a 20 percent growth rate until 2035, 2.5 million barrels per day of gasoline equivalent could be produced in combined coal and biomass plants. This would consume about 270 million dry tonnes (300 million dry tons)
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From page 93... ...
As shown in Table 3.1, coal-to-liquid fuels with CCS can be produced at a cost of $70/bbl of gasoline equivalent and thus are competitive with $75/bbl gasoline. In contrast, the costs of fuels produced from biomass without geologic CO2 storage are $115/bbl of gasoline equivalent for cellulosic ethanol produced by biochemical conversion and $140/bbl for biomass-to-liquid fuels produced by thermochemical conversion.
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From page 94... ...
oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, but it will take several decades to realize these potential long-term benefits. RENEWABLE ENERGY The level of electricity generation from renewable resources has risen signifi cantly over the past 20 years.
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From page 95... ...
According to the EIA, conventional hydroelectric power is the largest source of renewable electricity in the United States, generating about 6 percent (almost 250,000 GWh out of a total 4 million GWh) of electricity produced by the electric power sector in 2007.10 The largest growth rates in renewable resources for electricity generation are currently in wind power and solar power.
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From page 96... ...
Moreover, the resource bases for wind and solar energy are not evenly distributed, spatially as well as temporally, and they are more dif fuse compared to fossil and nuclear energy sources. Finally, though the size of the resource base is impressive, there are many technological, economic, and deploy ment-related constraints on using sources of renewable energy on a large scale.
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From page 97... ...
The use of biomass for biopower competes with its use for alternative liquid fuels. Deployment Potential Between now and 2020, there are no technological constraints to accelerated deployment of the major renewable resources with existing technologies.
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From page 98... ...
Obtaining 20 percent of electricity generation solely from wind power would be a challenge because the 20 percent refers to an annual average, whereas wind power is inter mittent. Balancing wind with multiple renewable resources -- including solar, which does not normally peak when wind does, and baseload power from geothermal and biomass -- could mitigate the temporal variability in generation.
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From page 99... ...
Greatly expanding electricity generation from renewable sources will require changes in the present electric system because of the intermittency, spatial distribution, and scalability of renewable resources. Integrating an additional 20 percent of renewable electricity, whether it comes from wind, solar, or some combination of renewable sources, requires expansion of the transmission system (to enable the power to reach demand centers and regional electricity markets)
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From page 100... ...
Many residential and commercial systems are unlikely to have high capacity factors, given that such systems would be installed on roofs that are not currently designed to maximize sun exposure. Additionally, the full electricity distribution system and centralized power sources are still required for periods when electricity generation from distributed sources is not available.
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From page 101... ...
Moreover, the variability of renewable energy makes integration into the electric power system more difficult as deployment grows. Integrating renewables at levels approaching 20 percent of all electricity generation requires not only greater transmission capacity but also the increased installation of fast-responding generation to provide electricity when renewables are not available.
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From page 102... ...
demand. Natural gas is the cleanest of the fossil fuels and has the lowest greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy (emitting about half of the CO2 of coal when burned for electricity generation)
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. The contribution to gas production from these areas could be about 1.5 trillion cubic feet per year in the 2020–2030 period, compared to current domestic production of 19.3 trillion cubic feet per year.
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From page 104... ...
, even if policies were put in place to constrain greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, if practical CCS technologies fail to materialize, coal use would be severely curtailed in a carbon constrained world.
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From page 105... ...
natural gas prices have risen above $13/million Btu and fallen to below $4/million Btu.) Future rules governing greenhouse gas emissions and the pace at which CCS technologies can be commercialized will also affect the coal-gas competition.
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From page 106... ...
These cost estimates, and similar estimates for the capture of CO2 from natural gas plants and low-rank coal plants, have significant uncertainties particularly in fuel costs, capital costs for first-of-a-kind plants, and the costs of CO2 capture and storage technologies. Based on historical experience, and assuming that all goes well in the devel opment and operation of CCS demonstrations from pilot plants to commercial scale, 10 GW of demonstration fossil-fuel CCS plants could be operating by 2020 with a strong policy driver (e.g., a CO2 emissions price of about $100 per tonne or comparably strong regulation)
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From page 107... ...
Carbon Capture and Storage CCS technologies have been demonstrated at commercial scale, but no large power plant today captures and stores its CO2. The few large storage projects now under way are all coupled to CO2 capture at nonpower facilities; for example, in one offshore operation in Norway, 50 million standard cubic feet per day of CO2 (1 million tonnes per year)
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From page 108... ...
Coal-to-liquid and natural-gas-to-liquid technologies with CCS can produce liquid transportation fuels with no more greenhouse gas emissions than those of crude oil. Other technologies to replace petroleum in the transportation sector are described in the "Energy Efficiency" and "Alternative Transportation Fuels" sections of this chapter.
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From page 109... ...
NUCLEAR ENERGY Energy companies in the United States are expressing increased interest in con structing new nuclear power plants. Reasons cited include the need for additional baseload generating capacity; growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel plants; volatility in natural gas prices; and favorable experi ence with existing nuclear plants, including ongoing improvements in reliability and safety.14 No major R&D is needed for an expansion of U.S.
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From page 110... ...
Average plant capacity factors have grown from 66 percent in 1990 to 91.8 percent in 2007, primarily through shortened refuel ing outages and improved maintenance, thereby greatly improving the plants' economic performance. Evolutionary nuclear plants.
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From page 111... ...
These plants could reduce the volume of and the heat emitted by long lived nuclear waste that must go to a repository for disposal.15 Much R&D will be needed before any of these alternative reactor types can be expected to make significant contributions to the U.S. energy supply.
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From page 112... ...
DOE is authorized to provide $18.5 billion in loan guarantees for nuclear power facilities, but it is not yet clear whether this allocation will be sufficient for the four to five plants the committee judges will be needed to demonstrate whether new nuclear plants can be built on schedule and on budget. DOE has found it difficult to implement the program, in part because of the challenge associated with estimating the appropriate fee.
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From page 113... ...
Nuclear power plants have low operating costs per unit of electricity generation, but they incur high capital costs that present a financing challenge for gen erating companies, particularly given the long lead times for construc tion and the possibility of expensive delays. Regulatory processes.
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From page 114... ...
Environmental quality. A major factor in favor of expanding nuclear power is the potential for reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
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Measures have been taken in recent years to reduce the likelihood and consequences of such events for existing plants, and evolutionary and advanced designs have features that further enhance safety and security. Adequacy of resources.
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From page 116... ...
Cost-effective electric storage would be valuable in smoothing power disruptions, preventing cascading blackouts, and accommodating intermittent renewable-energy sources. Some storage technologies (e.g., compressed air energy storage and per haps advanced batteries)
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From page 117... ...
Nevertheless, full deployment of modern T&D systems could be achieved by 2030. Improved decision support tools.
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From page 118... ...
Modern T&D systems will be less vulnerable to potential disruptions because of their greater controllability and higher penetration of distributed generation, but the overlay of computer-driven communications and control will make cybersecurity an integral part of modern ization. Environmental benefits from modern T&D systems will result from the greater penetration of large-scale intermittent renewable sources and of distributed and self-generation sources; better accommodation of demand-response technolo gies and electric vehicles; and improved efficiency.
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From page 119... ...
Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. EIA (Energy Information Administration)
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From page 120... ...
Source of cost estimates and models used to obtain estimates describe the methodologies that were used by the AEF Committee to estimate energy supply costs -- either the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE; see Box 2.3) or the costs of liquid fuels.
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From page 121... ...
The committee presents first plant cost estimates for immature technologies, Nth plant costs for mature technologies (e.g., pulverized coal plants) , and intermediate plant costs for technologies that are still maturing (e.g., IGCC, liquid fuels production)
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From page 122... ...
Financing period is the length of time that capital borrowed for con structing the energy supply plant would be financed. The financing periods used in this report reflect current industry practices, which vary across technology classes.
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From page 123... ...
The build times used in this report reflect current industry practices, which vary across technology classes. Capacity factor is the ratio (expressed as a percent)
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From page 124... ...
EIA (2009) COST ESTIMATES: SOURCES AND KEY ASSUMPTIONS Source of cost estimates Committee-derived Committee-derived Critical assessment of the literaturea model estimates model estimates Models used to obtain NETL (2007)
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From page 125... ...
, Princeton Environmental Instituteb Appendix I Cellulosic technologies are not Geologic storage of CO2 has Geologic storage of CO2 has not been yet mature and have not been not been demonstrated on a demonstrated on a commercial scale deployed commercial scale Intermediate plant Intermediate plant Intermediate plant No capital cost contingency No capital cost No capital cost contingency included included in estimate for contingency included in in estimate for CCS CCS estimate for CCS 4,000 bbl/d 50,000 bbl/d 10,000 bbl/d continued
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From page 126... ...
IGCC: 1865 CSP: 2860–4130 IGCC+CCS: 2466 PV: 2547–5185 NGCC: 572 Onshore wind: 916–1896 NGCC+CCS: 1209 Offshore wind: –20%/+30% uncertainty 2232–3552 ELECTRICITY OR LIQUID FUELS SUPPLY ESTIMATES: SOURCES AND KEY ASSUMPTIONS Committee-generated, Source of supply estimates Committee-generated, Committee-generated, based on an examination of based on historical based on historical build rates of plants in build rates of plants in natural resource base and other factorsd the United States the United States
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From page 127... ...
(0.134/bbl per day) Committee-generated, based Committee-generated, based Committee-generated, based partly on partly on corn-ethanol plant on historical build rates of corn-ethanol plant build rates in the United Statesf build rates in the United plants in the United States Statese continued
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From page 128... ...
aThe following studies were used to "bookend" the renewable energy cost estimates: ASES (2007)
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From page 129... ...
The committee also considered current growth rates of renewables technologies and historical build rates of other types of plants. eThe committee assumed twice the capacity achieved for corn grain ethanol.
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From page 130... ...
Source of cost estimates describes the methodologies that were used to estimate energy savings costs. As shown in the table, these estimates were derived from critical assessments of the literature.
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From page 131... ...
, committee conservation supply crosscutting technologies derived illustrative curve analysis scenario analysis of overall savings in fuel consumption Energy savings provide Key cost-effectiveness Levelized cost of energy Recovery of discounted an internal rate of return criteria savings is less than costs of energy savings the average national over the life of the on investment of at least electricity and natural vehicle 10 percent or exceed the company's cost of capital gas prices by a risk premium Technology lifetimes Technology specific Average vehicle lifetime Technology specific Before-tax discount rate 7 7 15 (percent/yr) Assessment of savings in Other considerations Assessment accounts For LDVs, assessment specific industries used for stock turnover in considers how the to confirm industry-wide buildings and equipment distribution of specific estimates vehicle types in the new vehicle fleet affects the on-the-road fleet aManufacturing only.
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From page 132... ...
2007. Tracking Climate Change in the U.S.: Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030.
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Key Terms
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