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Executive Summary
Pages 1-10

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From page 1...
... The National Research Council was asked by the U.S. Air Force to review relevant IOS modeling research programs in the various research communities, evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the programs and their methodologies, determine which have the greatest potential for military use, and provide guidance for the design of a research program to effectively foster the development of IOS models useful to the military.
From page 2...
... and iden tify strengths and shortcomings in each. • Identify how gaps in societal behavioral modeling applications s ­ erving DoD and related agencies might be filled by conceptual models in the social sciences; computational modeling approaches now under way in the social science community; and closer l ­inkages between the cognitive science community, the network/­ organizational model­ing community, and the multiresolution model­ing and simulation community.
From page 3...
... Its advancement requires that researchers maintain awareness of each other's work and build on each other's results, yet the multidisciplinary nature of IOS modeling has created a fragmented field. For the field to advance, researchers need better frameworks and forums in which to compare, discuss, and evaluate their results.
From page 4...
... Triangulation methods that combine expert judgment, qualitative results and theoretical work, and quantitative results should be further refined and more widely used. Common challenge problems and datasets are needed to facilitate docking of models for comparative purposes.
From page 5...
... These users will be ultimate judges of whether model results are useful and will provide advice on how the results can best be presented. The use of a common challenge problem and a common testbed will facilitate docking of the different models for purposes of comparison.
From page 6...
... Basic research is needed for theory development, especially for the lowlevel social behaviors that are the building blocks for larger scale social behavioral patterns. This theory development work must involve multiple disciplines and perspectives with periodic workshops to exchange results.
From page 7...
... For field data collection, it is necessary to bring modelers and data collectors together to develop data ontologies, joint specifications, and data collection methodologies and tools that are specifically tuned to IOS models. MMOGs are a potential untapped resource for collecting social and behavioral data on a large scale.
From page 8...
... Combining model components to create federated models in the sense being recommended requires deep semantic interoperability (i.e., theoretical consistency) and presents difficult challenges.
From page 9...
... It should be possible to easily tailor existing models for specific purposes. Sharing of IOS modeling knowledge across disciplines, as facilitated by the conferences and workshops recommended below, will support this goal.
From page 10...
... • Reasonable definitions of validation for IOS models, feasible approaches for VV&A testing, and why these approaches differ from those used for physics-based models. The recommended workshops should involve model developers, operational military users of the models, and government personnel making funding decisions regarding model development.


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