Behavioral Modeling and Simulation From Individuals to Societies (2008) / Chapter Skim
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2 Military Missions and How IOS Models Can Help
2 Military Missions and How IOS Models Can Help
Pages 23-88
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From page 23... ...
Today, the changing nature of military missions is driving the need for new types of computational models that focus on human behavior, specifically on human behavior in social units, such as organizations and societies. The military has traditionally made use of computational modeling in three broad areas of activity: 1.
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From page 24... ...
Subsequent chapters provide a broader review of state-ofthe-art IOS behavioral modeling approaches, assess the extent to which those approaches have the potential to meet military needs, identify major shortfalls and gaps, and recommend a plan of action to address them. Military Missions Now and Into the Future This section reviews the changing nature of today's military missions to explain why effective forecasting, training, and acquisition require computational IOS models.
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From page 25... ...
5. Refining DoD's force planning construct for wartime to move grad ually from a two-front conventional campaign capability to more loosely defined "distributed, long-duration operations, including unconventional warfare, foreign internal defense, counterterror ism, counterinsurgency, and stabilization and reconstruction opera tions" (U.S.
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From page 26... ...
Dimensions of the New Battlespace In this section we examine some of the drivers of the changing DoD mission to gain insight into what this shift in mission means for IOS modeling requirements. The Impact of Urbanization One of the key drivers in this shift has been the growing recognition that fundamental world demographics are changing: "The world's urban population reached 2.9 billion in 2000 and is expected to rise to 5 billion by 2030.
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From page 27... ...
Collateral damage issues covering critical infrastructure losses, damage to symbolic edifices, and noncombatant loss of life are critical. Urban operations are also complicated by the fact that mission objectives can vary dramatically in both time and space, running from all-out conflict to infrastructure rehabilitation.
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From page 28... ...
engagement into something that is now considerably more holistic and focuses primarily on social, organizational, and cultural factors involving key individuals, nonmilitary groups, local crowds, and indigenous populations, all within a rich tapestry of a complex local infrastructure overlaid by local, national, and transnational economic markets, organizational and social structures, traditions, cultures, and religious beliefs. The Growing Importance of Pre- and Postconflict Operations The changing nature of military missions is putting increasing focus on operations that occur before and after periods of overt conflict.
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From page 29... ...
On the other hand, especially in MOOTW [military operations other than war] , the situation may be further complicated by the presence of nonmilitary government departments and agencies, to include intelligence, law enforcement, and other specialized entities" (Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2002, Chapter II, pp.
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From page 30... ...
In the spatial dimension, urban operations demand a much finer view of the battlespace: it is no longer sufficient to consider high-level aggregates of large units and large geographic areas of responsibility, such as one might do
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From page 31... ...
Planning horizons are short, and urban operations demand a high temporal resolution of activities if operations are to succeed. The time available to plan operations is likewise compressed, and planning windows are compressed, often down to minutes. At the other end of the spectrum, USECT phases can take months or years to accomplish and are often characterized by considerably slower temporal dynamics and windows, in both the planning and the execution of activities.
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From page 32... ...
HOW IOS behavioral Models CAN HELP THE MILITARY The changing nature of DoD's mission has greatly increased the need for IOS models that capture the cognitive, organizational, societal, and cultural factors that are critical in the urban battlespace. IOS models are needed across the full spectrum of operations, particularly during urban e W introduce the term "forecasting" here, in place of predicting, to reemphasize the difficult problem of anticipating individual or organizational behavior (see Chapter 1)
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From page 33... ...
. operations, as indicated by the number one recommendation of the recent Joint Urban Operations Workshop: "Employ high-resolution modeling, simulations, and other decision support tools that incorporate friendly, enemy, and neutral forces, plus the urban population in order to conduct rehearsals, assess courses of action, and make better decisions faster than the enemy in an urban operation" (Mahoney, 2005)
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From page 34... ...
for current operations, while others may support long-term development of background data and knowledge bases. The INTEL data support "inner loop" situation assessment -- that is, short-term assessment of the state of the battlespace -- to estimate the current situation in the face of collected information that is incomplete, noisy, and stale, which may also be compromised by reporting errors, communications failures, and deliberate disinformation on the part of the adversary.
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From page 35... ...
Air Force Scientific Advisory Board Study (2002a)
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From page 36... ...
Whether focusing on the inner loop or outer loop activities, it should be clear that current estimates and future forecasts must naturally rely on IOS behavior models of some sort. They may be implicit seat-of-the-pants mental models held by the personnel performing the intelligence, planning, and operational functions, or they may be explicit and simplified computational models (possibly instantiated at vastly different time scales or spatial resolution)
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From page 37... ...
• A more recent SAB study on the need for behavior modeling in urban operations (U.S. Air Force Scientific Advisory Board, 2005)
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From page 38... ...
, directed at forecasting the likelihood of a nation-state collapse (Popp et al., 2006) , and the follow-on Integrated Crisis Early Warning System, which has as its goal "the development of state-of-the-art computational modeling capabilities that can monitor, assess, and forecast, in near-real time, a variety of phenomena associated with country instability" (see http://www.darpa.mil/ipto/solicitations/ open/07-10_PIP.pdf)
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From page 39... ...
Models for Understanding Enemy Command and Control Structures Understanding enemy command and control structures through IOS behavioral models enables the identification of vulnerabilities and strengths before planning friendly activities. This was pointed out in a previous study on human behavioral modeling (National Research Council, 1998)
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From page 40... ...
These models could be made even more effective if they were placed in data-farming environments so that the space of COAs could be more effectively mapped. Models for Training and Mission Rehearsal IOS behavior models have the potential for providing significant benefit to U.S.
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From page 41... ...
In general, IOS behavioral models can be used effectively for improved training, but more realistic models of actors, groups, and nation-states are needed. A key aspect of the current training and rehearsal process is that, during training, military personnel are provided access to people (or their model-based surrogates)
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From page 42... ...
IOS behavior models that could support automated means to generate and adapt red strategies/tactics in line with asymmetric warfare can be a key enabling component for meeting the objectives needed to support acquisition. Key uses here are to preevaluate the value of new technology in a variety of scenarios that are both physically and culturally accurate, assess the need for particular skills in soldiers, and assess how generational changes in soldiers may lead them to need or utilize technologies differently from their
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From page 43... ...
. The Army and the Navy similarly recognize the leverage obtainable from effective C2 systems, especially given the Army's commitment to the networked Future Combat System program and the Navy's effective invention of the term "network-centric warfare" through Admiral Cebrowski's leadership,10 but it is fair to say that all three services have tended to focus on the hardware and software infrastructure (communications pipes, fusion algorithms, decision aids, visualization techniques, etc.)
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From page 44... ...
Dynamic network models linked to various databases with streaming information on personnel could enable real-time assessment of shared situation awareness and organizational health. Text mining tools and shared mental model assessment tools could be used to improve information flow and rapidly process incoming data.
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From page 45... ...
Three vignettes are developed to provide a construct for the purpose of addressing the potential of behavioral models supporting operations of a brigade combat team as part of a joint campaign. These vignettes center around • tactical operations in entry operation (entry)
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From page 46... ...
• To establish crowd control early in the urban environment, is controlling an area, like the civilian neighborhood, or a point of special interest, like a mosque, more likely to mitigate crowd behavior? • In neighborhoods not committed to radicalism, what is the most influential means to insert forces: in combat vehicles or on foot?
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From page 47... ...
Training and Rehearsal Crowd control training. Create an immersive virtual training environment in which soldiers can learn to take appropriate action based on the correct interpre tation of the behavior of small groups of citizens and understand the triggering mechanisms for violent responses by the crowd.
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From page 48... ...
OVERVIEW OF current dOd IOS MODELING efforts In this section we briefly review major IOS behavioral modeling efforts under way to address military questions such as those described above, pointing out some of the major challenges that confront these efforts. The DMSO Master Plan for Modeling and Simulation In 1995, DoD published a master plan for M&S, in an attempt to unify efforts across all services, identify needed areas of development (gaps)
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From page 49... ...
simulators, one on anthropometry (Jack) , and the remaining few on four distinct behavior models: IMPRINT, IUSS, MATREX, and OneSAF (more on these later)
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From page 50... ...
Of these, less than a dozen relate to individual human cognition, behavior, or per formance, and of these, two refer to HIL simulators, one to a nthropometry (INTERMEDIATE) , one to decision aiding (for target prioritization)
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From page 51... ...
Selected Current DoD Behavioral Modeling Efforts A complete survey of the state of IOS model development and application (both inside and outside DoD but having potential for use in DoD applications) goes beyond the charge of this committee.
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From page 52... ...
providing a discrete-event standalone simulation environment for exercising the model over time. Many task network models have been developed for simulating military tasks, and the basic MicroSAINT language has been extended by develop 17 ERT stands for Program Evaluation Review Technique, a methodology closely related to P the Critical Path Method used to identify bottlenecks in overall task progress.
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From page 53... ...
Cognitive and Cognitive-Affective Architectures and Models A wide variety of cognitive and cognitive-affective architectures and models are represented in Appendix Table 2-A1. Although their history may not be as long as the task network models (going back perhaps 25 years to the pioneering work of Anderson, 1983)
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From page 54... ...
Multiagent Systems ABM environments and multiagent systems trade off the complexity of individual cognitive-affective agents for an increase in the sheer number of agents and a concomitant increase in the complexities in interagent i nteractions. These are described in more detail in Chapter 6, but it is worth commenting briefly on the three multiagent models highlighted in Appendix Table 2-A1 and how they have been extended and applied to DoD questions of interest.
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From page 55... ...
. The Modeling Paradigms include techniques such as: concept maps, social network models, influence diagrams, differential equations, causal models, Bayesian networks, Petri nets, event-based simulation, and agent based 19 learly, this is not intended to represent modeling "reality" in any sense but is merely an C attempt to illustrate (1)
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From page 56... ...
56 2-3.eps bitmap image B FIGURE 2-3 IBC modeling space. SOURCE: Adapted from Allen (2004)
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From page 57... ...
Each regional submodel contains six functional submodels: the demographics submodel, the insurgent and coalition military submodel, critical infrastructure, law enforcement, indigenous security 20 he T two assertions made here are based on the program manager's long experience in the M&S world and generally match what the modeling community has long known, namely, that (1) different domains often call for different modeling paradigms (e.g., modeling a social network is probably better represented by network modeling methods, than, say, by an argumentation framework)
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From page 58... ...
Simulation Frameworks and Tools In addition to these domain-focused modeling efforts, there are many efforts devoted to the development of general-purpose frameworks that make the modeler's job easier. As noted in Table 2-A1, these include the C2 modeling framework C3GRID, the team/organizational modeling framework DDD, the generic M&S frameworks FLAMES, ICET, and MATREX, the social network analysis tool ORA, and the collaboration decision aid framework SIAM.
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From page 59... ...
Hence, an alternative distributed paradigm is needed that enables rapid access to new models and enables the military to make use of the increasing number of models that exist even when they were not developed expressly for military purposes. A possible alternative paradigm has a plug-and-play distributed infrastructure with data distributed across sets of servers with appropriate access controls; multiple models and simulations for different purposes with appropriate access control; and documentation, intelligent tools for aiding the user in determining which tools can be used with which data, and web enablement.
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From page 60... ...
IOS model-based fusion and data collection management techniques are needed. IOS models for identifying potential missing or erroneous data should also be developed.
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From page 61... ...
Adversarial models need to be sensitive to cultural factors, particularly to alternative goals, preferences for actions, and gender roles. CONCLUSION Current military missions and today's operating environment have created a pervasive need for models that can capture and forecast the behavior of humans acting in social units, ranging from small groups and teams to neighborhoods, cultural and ethnic groups, and entire societies.
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From page 62... ...
BioWar Combines computational models of social networks, communication media, disease models, demographically accurate agent models, wind dispersion models, and a diagnostic error model into a single integrated model of the impact of a biological warfare attack on a city. BioWar moves beyond existing epidemiological models by accounting for the heterogeneity of social networks and the geographical distribution of people when forecasting disease outbreaks.
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From page 63... ...
RID=MNS_A_1001514 Modeling framework Army Research http://www.arl.army.mil/ARL-directorates/ Laboratory (ARL) HRED/imb/imprint/References.pdf continued
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COGNET, Cognition as a COGNET is an executable cognitive architecture and iGEN Network of Tasks iGEN is the associated development environment. Both have been applied in a number of DoD sponsored modeling exercises, most notably in the AFRL/HE AMBR air traffic control human behavior modeling and simulation program and in the Navy TADMUS antiaircraft defense modeling effort.
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From page 65... ...
architecture for Science, Rensselaer edu/~rsun/clarion-ub.html individual entity Polytechnic Institute; modeling Army Research Institute (ARI) Cognitive USAF AFRL/HE and http://www.chisystems.com/ architecture and Navy SPAWAR model development environment Multiagent dynamic Carnegie Mellon http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/projects/ network model University, DARPA, construct/index.html ONR continued
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From page 66... ...
DDD models the resultant team/environment interactions based on empirically observed team/organization interactions and provides a simulation environment for calculating team performance metrics, based on a team performance model embedded in the simulator. DIAS Dynamic Object-oriented framework for integrating disparate Information multidisciplinary simulation models, supporting Architecture legacy code reuse, and modeling of cooperative System behaviors of agents.
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From page 67... ...
Generic simulation Argonne National http://www.dis.anl.gov/DIAS/ framework Lab, DIS Division Cognitive University of http://www.eecs.umich.edu/~kieras/ architecture for Michigan, ONR epic.html individual entity modeling Generic framework USAF AFRL/MN and http://www.ternion.com NAIC continued
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From page 68... ...
IBC Integrated Battle The IBC framework provides a means of integrating Command disparate environmental and IOS behavior models to support the analysis of the potential effects that a given set of DIME actions will have across the full range of PMESII variables, at the nation-state level. Each model in IBC may represent its portion of the domain in a manner and level of fidelity quite different from other models.
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From page 69... ...
MILITARY MISSIONS AND HOW IOS MODELS CAN HELP 69 Sponsor/ Category Research Center Reference/Website Language for ARL http://www.dtic.mil/dticasd/ddsm/closed/ individual operator ddsm0023.html task modeling Framework for DARPA http://www.darpa.mil/sto/solicitations/IBC/ integrating different index.htm (Allen, 2004) DIME/PMESII models Generic framework USAF AFRL/MN and http://www.ternion.com NAIC Decision aid with DARPA IXO http://www.darpa.mil/ipto/solicitations/ embedded models open/07-10_PIP.pdf of nation-state behaviors Human task ARL http://www.arl.army.mil/ARL-Directorates/ modeling HRED/imb/imprint/imprint.htm environment continued
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From page 70... ...
JSIMS Joint Simulation A federation of service-unique models of service Systems specific entities, based on a high-level architecture, common standards, and common protocols. JSIMS was going to be the primary M&S tool to support future joint and service training, education, doctrine development, and mission rehearsal for the Army, Air Force, Navy, DIA, DISA, NASM, TRANSCOM, and SOCOM.
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index.cfm? RID=MDL_AF_1000066 application for Training and Analysis simulating a wide Center range of cross-service military entities M&S environment JFCOM N/A for all DoD needs continued
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From page 72... ...
It will also support the integration of human behavioral models, such as IWARS, but does not support the direct construction of such models. MicroSAINT Microprocessor- A discrete-event network simulation language based Systems for developing task network models of humans Analysis of performing well-defined sequential tasks.
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From page 73... ...
MILITARY MISSIONS AND HOW IOS MODELS CAN HELP 73 Sponsor/ Category Research Center Reference/Website Cognitive Army Research http://www.psychometrixassociates.com/ architecture for Institute (ARI, hudl_mamid.pdf individual entity NASA, AFOSR) modeling M&S environment Army RDECOM N/A for all Army needs Simulation language Micro Analysis and http://www.maad.com/index.pl/ and tools for Design, ARL micro_saint developing tasknetwork models of human behavior continued
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From page 74... ...
, Stressors as a means for generating personality- or stress based moderators that can moderate structures or parameters of the target cognitive architecture, to emulate, for example, the effect of fatigue level on perception or fear on cognitive task performance. MINDS has been integrated with the SAMPLE cognitive architecture and embedded in the IWARS simulation environment to model infantry squad leader decision making.
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From page 75... ...
entity cognitive architectures Computer- Army Simulation, N/A generated force Training, and (CGF) application Instrumentation for simulating Command maneuvering ground (STRICOM)
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From page 76... ...
OneSAF is designed for numerous System, M&S domain applications, including research, OneSAF Testbed experimentation, training, COA analysis, and mission planning. OneSAF models automated and semi-automated behaviors for entities and units up to the brigade level and supports the full spectrum of military operations, including urban missions.
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From page 77... ...
entities Social network model ONR, DARPA, ARL, http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/projects/ora/ building and analysis NSF, AFOSR software.html tool continued
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From page 78... ...
SAMPLE, Situation SAMPLE is a cognitive architecture comprised of GRADE Awareness Model modules for fuzzy rule-based perception, Bayesian for Person in the belief network-based situation awareness, and Loop Evaluation, production rule-based decision making. GRADE is an Graphical Agent agent development environment for rapidly creating Development SAMPLE models for different domains/tasks.
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From page 79... ...
Army, DARPA, associated agent JFCOM development environment Decision aiding tool DARPA IIXO http://dtsn.darpa.mil/IXO/ with game-theoretic programs.asp? id=43 model for adversary (Kott and Ownby, 2005)
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From page 80... ...
and COA assessments. SIAM Situational A collaborative decision aiding tool to help multiple Influence analysts and experts decompose and analyze complex Assessment Model problems.
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From page 81... ...
MILITARY MISSIONS AND HOW IOS MODELS CAN HELP 81 Sponsor/ Category Research Center Reference/Website Software agent- Simulex, JFCOM http://www.simulexinc. based development com/products/case_studies/#seas-vis environment Visualization and SAIC http://www.saic.com/business/technologies/ decision aiding tool license/it/siam.Pdf Operator modeling University of http://sitemaker.umich.edu/soar/home, production rule Michigan, SoarTech http://www.soartech.com system continued
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From page 82... ...
SROM models a country in a holistic lumped parameter manner as a national submodel, which is then defined in terms of its n regions as a system of systems. Each regional submodel itself contains six functional submodels: demographics submodel, insurgent and coalition military submodel, critical infrastructure, law enforcement, indigenous security institutions, and public opinion.
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From page 83... ...
MILITARY MISSIONS AND HOW IOS MODELS CAN HELP 83 Sponsor/ Category Research Center Reference/Website Sociocultural training National Simulation http://www.msrr.army.mil/ system Center (NSC) DIME/PMESII USAF AFRL/IF (Robbins, Deckro, and Wiley, 2005)
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From page 84... ...
. Joint publication 3-06: Doctrine for joint urban operations.
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From page 85... ...
. Joint urban operations workshop on command and control and net centric environmental science and technology, executive summary.
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From page 86... ...
. Autonomous agent-based simulation of an AEGIS cruiser combat information center performing battle group air-defense com mander operations.
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From page 87... ...
. Report on Air Force operations in urban environments, volume 1: Executive summary and annotated brief.
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