Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation Special Report 290 (2008) / Chapter Skim
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5 Meeting the Challenges
5 Meeting the Challenges
Pages 148-188
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From page 148... ...
. The effects of such global climate changes as warming temperatures and sea level rise occurring today reflect emissions of GHGs released into the atmosphere over the past century.
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From page 149... ...
These decisions should be weighed carefully to ensure that people and businesses are not placed in harm's way as projected climate changes unfold. Following discussion of these topics, the chapter turns to many crosscutting issues -- flood insurance; monitoring technologies and new materials; data, models, and decision support tools; and new partnerships and organizational arrangements -- that can help facilitate adaptation to climate change or bring climate change issues into the decision-making process.
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From page 150... ...
Mainstreaming such responses will require expanding the scope of the traditional operating focus of DOTs on traffic and incident management to include weather management, as well as improved training for operating personnel. Increases in Intensity of Weather Events Climate change is expected to trigger more extreme weather events, such as more intense precipitation, which are likely to produce areawide emergen 2 Based on averages from 1995–2004 data collected by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and analyzed by Mitretek Systems.
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From page 151... ...
Regional transportation management centers (TMCs) provide one location through which collaboration between transportation providers and emergency managers can occur (see Box 5-1)
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From page 152... ...
Opened in 1996, Houston TranStar is a consortium partnership of transportation and emer gency management agencies in the greater Houston area housing engineers, law enforcement personnel, information technology specialists, and emer gency managers. In addition to traffic monitoring and incident control, emergency management personnel from the Harris County Office of Emer gency Management monitor potential emergencies due to severe weather using state-of-the-art technology, such as flood warning monitors, Doppler radar, satellite imagery, and weather data from the National Weather Service, to provide the public with real-time information.
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From page 153... ...
, transportation planners and engineers must consider how climate changes will affect these facilities 50 years or more from now. Adapting to climate change will also require reevaluation, development, and regular updating of design standards that guide infrastructure design.
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From page 154... ...
For example, wave action is more critical than temperature changes for coastal bridge design. Finally, climate extremes, such as stronger wind speeds, increased storm surges, and greater wave heights, will place the greatest demands on infrastructure because they are likely to push the limits of the performance range for which facilities were designed.
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From page 155... ...
TABLE 5-1 Climate-Induced Changes That Could Influence Transportation Infrastructure Design Climate-Change Changes in Phenomenon Environmental Condition Design Implications Temperature Rising maximum Over the short term,a minimal impact on change temperature; lower pavement or structural design; potential minimum tem- significant impact on road, bridge scour, and perature; wider culvert design in cold regions temperature range; Over the long term, possible significant impact on possible significant pavement and structural design; need for new impact on permafrost materials and better maintenance strategies Changing Worst-case scenario, Over the short term, could affect pavement and precipitation more precipitation; drainage design; need for greater attention to levels higher water tables; foundation conditions, more probabilistic greater levels of approaches to design floods, more targeted flooding; higher maintenance moisture content Over the long term, definite impact on foundation in soils design and design of drainage systems and culverts; impact on design of pavement subgrade and materials Wind loads Stronger wind speeds Over the short term, design factors for design and thus loads on wind speed might change; wind tunnel bridge structures; testing will have to consider more turbulent more turbulence wind conditions Over the long term, need for materials of greater strength; impact on design considerations for suspended and cable-stayed bridges Sea level rise Rising water levels in Over the long term, greater inundation of coastal coastal areas and areas; need for more stringent design stan rivers; increases in dards for flooding and building in saturated severe coastal soils; greater protection of infrastructure flooding needed when higher sea levels combine with storm surges Greater storm Larger and more fre- Over the short term, need for design changes to surges and quent storm surges; bridge height in vulnerable areas; need for wave heights more powerful wave more probabilistic approach to predicting action storm surges Over the long term, need for changes to bridge design, both superstructure and founda tions; changes in materials specifications; and more protective strategies for critical components a For purposes of this table, short term is defined as the next 30 to 40 years; long term is from 40 to 100 years. Source: Meyer 2006, Table 1.
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From page 156... ...
not only approved and shared in the cost of rebuilding the damaged bridges to a higher design standard but also recommended the development of more appropriate bridge design standards in general for a coastal environment that would take into account the combined effects of storm surge and wave action and assume a more severe storm event (e.g., a 100-year or even 500-year storm)
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From page 157... ...
. The key climate changes of concern to state highways are sea level rise, coastal storm surges, and increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events.
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From page 158... ...
Chapter 3 described the continuing development pressures on coastal counties despite the increased risk of flooding and damage from storm surge and wave action accompanying projected rising sea levels. Many areas along the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts will be affected.
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From page 159... ...
Member agencies include the United States Geological Survey, the National Science Foundation, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology -- agencies engaged primarily in research and development. The mission of NEHRP is broad and includes understanding the science of earthquakes and their effects, improving earthquake hazard identification and risk assessment methods, and developing effective practices (e.g., model building codes)
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From page 160... ...
One of the main reasons for the disconnect between transportation investment decisions and land use and development deci sions can be traced to governance arrangements. Decisions concerning large-scale transportation infrastructure investments are the responsibility of states, regional authorities, and the private sector.
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From page 161... ...
For example, projections of current development patterns and supporting transportation infrastructure, when overlaid on maps showing current elevations and expected sea level rise, could illustrate the increased risks of allowing uncontrolled development in vulnerable coastal areas and the desirability of managed growth policies and protection of critical infrastructure. Climate scientists, perhaps at local universities, could assist in the 10 More specifically, Section 6001 and the Final Rule on Statewide and Metropolitan Transportation Planning (Federal Register 2007)
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From page 162... ...
The planners noted the vulnerability of the region to tropical storms and flooding, likely to be intensified by climate change and land subsidence, and the scenarios considered compared population growth in sensitive floodplains and hurri cane evacuation areas. The chosen Envision scenario showed a reduction in population in both areas, alleviating demand on evacuation routes as com pared with the baseline, status quo scenario.
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From page 163... ...
For example, reduced sea ice along Alaska's Arctic coast is already eroding shoreline and exposing coastal areas to the action of winter storm surges and waves, a pattern that will be exacerbated by further sea level rise. Some 200 Native American villages are at risk and may soon be abandoned for inland locations (ACIA 2004)
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From page 164... ...
to mitigate increasing taxpayer-funded flood relief. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
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From page 165... ...
Further additions to flood zone maps may be needed and are particularly important to transportation engineers because these maps have become a quasi–design standard for determining appropriate drainage capacity, for example, for transportation infrastructure in coastal areas. Monitoring Technologies and New Materials Better monitoring technologies and new materials could offer engineers alternatives to costly infrastructure retrofit or replacement in advance of climate change.
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From page 166... ...
Data, Models, and Decision Support Tools Data systems for monitoring the impacts of climate change can be an effective tool for determining appropriate adaptation strategies. One such system is the Alaska Engineering Design Information System (AEDIS)
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From page 167... ...
Improving information on weather for transportation infrastructure applications is another important area for development, particularly in view of the potential for more climate extremes. The national needs assessment report of the Weather Information for Surface Transportation initiative (OFCM 2002)
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From page 168... ...
; the results of this research should help in revising coastal bridge design standards. If extreme weather events require evacuation of affected areas, better modeling to support evacuation efforts will be needed.
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From page 169... ...
Other relevant partnerships could involve local collaboration between university climate scientists and regional transportation planners; greater interaction between transportation planners and those who control land use (both described previously) ; and creation of a more formal process for better communication among transportation professionals, climate scientists, and other relevant scientific disciplines, along with a repository for transportation-relevant climate change information.
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From page 170... ...
. State-mandated regional compacts for addressing regional air quality issues offer another model.19 One could imagine the emergence of similar arrangements to address such problems as the impact of sea level rise on coastal real estate and infrastructure in the tristate New York area or other coastal areas, the effects of drought on shipping along inland waterways, or the impact of hurricanes in the Gulf Coast region.
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From page 171... ...
At a minimum, updating of flood zone maps to account for sea level rise (incorporating land subsidence) should be a priority in coastal areas.
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From page 172... ...
and improved modeling -- from weather forecasting to modeling of expected storm surge and real-time evacuation scenarios -- are needed as well. Adapting to climate change will also require new partnerships and organizational arrangements that better align with climate impacts than do current modal, jurisdictional, and corporate boundaries around which decision making in the transportation sector is structured.
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From page 173... ...
2007. Statewide Transportation Planning; Metropolitan Transportation Planning; Final Rule.
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From page 174... ...
2007. National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program: Working to Reduce Earthquake Losses.
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From page 175... ...
; heat exhaus- Impacts on landscaping in Greater use of continu tion possible at highway and street ous welded rail lines 40.5°C (105°F) rights-of-way Vehicle overheating and Concerns regarding pave tire deterioration ment integrity, e.g., softening, traffic-related rutting, migration of liq uid asphalt; sustained air temperature over 32°C (90°F)
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From page 176... ...
Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Temperature: Regional changes in Decreased utility of Reduction in snow and decreases in very snow and ice removal unimproved roads that ice removal cold days costs and environ- rely on frozen ground for Extension of construc mental impacts from passage tion and main salt and chemical tenance season use (reduction over- Shortening of season all, but increases in for use of ice roads some regions) Fewer cold-related restrictions for main tenance workers Temperature: Thawing of permafrost, Shortening of season Use of insulation in the Relocation of sec increases in causing subsidence of for use of ice roads road prism tions of roads and Arctic tempera- roads, rail beds, bridge Lengthening of poten- Use of different types rail lines to more tures supports (cave-in)
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From page 177... ...
Temperature: later Changes in seasonal Reduced pavement Relaxation of seasonal onset of seasonal weight restrictions deterioration result- weight restrictions freeze and earlier Changes in seasonal ing from less Shortening of season onset of seasonal fuel requirements exposure to freezing, for use of ice roads thaw Improved mobility and snow, and ice, but safety associated possibility of more with a reduction in freeze–thaw condi winter weather tions in some Longer construction locations season Sea level rise, More frequent inter- Inundation of roads Elevation of streets, Relocation of sections added to storm ruptions in travel on and rail lines in bridges, and rail of roads and rail surge coastal and low- coastal areas lines lines inland lying roadways and More frequent or severe Addition of drainage Protection of high rail service due to flooding of under- canals near coastal value coastal real storm surges ground tunnels and roads estate with levees, More severe storm low-lying infrastruc- Elevation and protec- seawalls, and dikes surges, requiring ture tion of bridge, Strengthening and evacuation Erosion of road base tunnel, and transit heightening of and bridge supports entrances existing levees, Bridge scour Additional pumping seawalls, and dikes Reduced clearance capacity for tunnels Restriction of most under bridges vulnerable coastal Loss of coastal wet- areas from further lands and barrier development shoreline Increase in flood Land subsidence insurance rates to help restrict devel opment (continued)
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From page 178... ...
Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Return of some coastal areas to nature Precipitation: Increases in weather- Increases in flooding of Expansion of systems Protection of critical Greater use of sen increase in related delays roadways, rail lines, and for monitoring scour evacuation routes sors for intense precipi- Increases in traffic dis- subterranean tunnels of bridge piers and Upgrading of road monitoring water tation events ruptions Overloading of drainage abutments drainage systems flows Increased flooding of systems, causing back- Increase in monitoring Protection of bridge Restriction of devel evacuation routes ups and street flooding of land slopes and piers and abutments opment in Disruption of construc- Increases in road scouring, drainage systems with riprap floodplains tion activities road washout, damages Increases in monitoring Increases in culvert Changes in rain, snow- to railbed support struc- of pipelines for expo- capacity fall, and seasonal tures, and landslides sure, shifting, and Increases in pumping flooding that affect and mudslides that scour in shallow capacity for tunnels safety and mainte- damage roadways and waters Addition of slope reten nance operations tracks Increases in real-time tion structures and Impacts on soil moisture monitoring of flood retaining facilities levels, affecting struc- levels for landslides tural integrity of roads, Integration of emergency Increases in the stan bridges, and tunnels evacuation proce- dard for drainage dures into operations capacity for new
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From page 179... ...
shipping of bridge decks Improvements in ability substructure and Restriction of further More frequent and Increased damage to signs, to forecast landfall strengthen founda- development in potentially more lighting fixtures and and trajectory of tions vulnerable coastal extensive emergency supports hurricanes locations evacuations (continued)
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From page 180... ...
Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Decreased expected life- Improvements in moni- Increases in drainage Increase in flood time of highways toring of road capacity for new insurance rates to exposed to storm surge conditions and transportation infra- help restrict issuance of real-time structure or major development messages to rehabilitation proj- Return of some motorists ects (e.g., assuming coastal areas to Improvements in mod- more frequent return nature eling of emergency periods) evacuation Removal of traffic bot tlenecks on critical evacuation routes and building of more system redundancy Adoption of modular construction tech niques where infra structure is in danger of failure Development of modular traffic features and road sign systems for easier replacement
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From page 181... ...
ANNEX 5-1B Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Marine Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Marine Transportation Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Temperature: Impacts on shipping increases in very due to warmer water hot days and in rivers and lakes heat waves Temperature: Less ice accumulation Improvement in operat decreases in very on vessels, decks, ing conditions from cold days riggings, and docks; less ice accumula less ice fog; fewer tion, fog, and jams ice jams in ports Temperature: Longer ocean transport Longer ice-free ship increases in season and more ping season and Arctic tempera- ice-free ports in increased access to tures northern regions more ice-free ports Possible availability of and resources in a Northern Sea Route remote areas or a Northwest Longer season for Passage barge transport (continued)
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From page 182... ...
Lawrence Shifts to other trans thaw Seaway and the portation modes Great Lakes) due to reduced ice coverage Sea level rise, More severe storm Changes in harbor and port More frequent bridge Raising of dock and More dredging of added to storm surges, requiring facilities to accommo- openings to handle wharf levels and some channels surge evacuation date higher tides and shipping retrofitting of other Raising or construc storm surges facilities to provide tion of new jetties Reduced clearance under adequate clearance and seawalls to bridges Protection of terminal protect harbors Impacts on navigability of and warehouse channels: some will be entrances more accessible (and Elevation of bridges farther inland)
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From page 183... ...
Precipitation: Increases in weather- Impacts on harbor infra- Strengthening of harbor More dredging on increase in related delays structure from wave infrastructure to pro- some shipping intense precipita- damage and storm tect it from storm channels tion events surges surge and wave Changes in underwater damage surface and silt and Protection of terminal debris buildup can affect and warehouse channel depth entrances from flooding Precipitation: Impacts on river trans- Restrictions on ship- More dredging on increases in portation routes and ping due to channel some shipping drought condi- seasons depth along inland channels and tions for some waterways and on harbors regions other river travel Release of water from upstream sources Shifts to other trans portation modes Precipitation: Periodic channel clos- Changes in silt deposition Restrictions on ship- More dredging on changes in ings or restrictions if leading to reduced depth ping due to channel some shipping seasonal precipi- flooding increases of some inland water- depth along inland channels tation and river Benefits for safety and ways and impacts on waterways and on flow patterns reduced interrup- long-term viability of other river travel tions if frozen some inland navigation precipitation shifts routes to rainfall (continued)
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From page 184... ...
maintenance, and structure from waves storm surge and safety management and storm surges wave action Damage to cranes and other dock and terminal facilities
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From page 185... ...
ANNEX 5-1C Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Air Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Aviation Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Temperature: Delays due to excessive Heat-related weathering Increase in payload Development of new increases in very heat and buckling of pave- restrictions on air- heat-resistant run hot days and Impact on lift-off load ments and concrete craft at high-altitude way paving materials heat waves limits at high-alti- facilities or hot-weather air- Extension of runway tude or hot-weather Heat-related weathering of ports lengths at high airports with in- vehicle stock Increase in flight can- altitude or hot sufficient runway cellations weather airports, if lengths, resulting in feasible flight cancellations or limits on payload (i.e., weight restric tions) , or both More energy consump tion on the ground Temperature: Changes in snow and Reduction in snow and decreases in very ice removal costs ice removal cold days and environmental Reduction in airplane impacts from salt deicing and chemical use Reduction in need for deicing (continued)
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From page 186... ...
Temperature: Thawing of permafrost, Development of new Relocation of some increases in undermining runway runway paving mate- landing strips Arctic tempera- foundations rials tures Major repair of some runways Temperature: later onset of seasonal freeze and earlier onset of seasonal thaw Sea level rise, Potential for closure or Inundation of airport run- Elevation of some run- Construction or rais added to storm restrictions for sev- ways located in coastal ways ing of protective surge eral of the top 50 areas dikes and levees airports that lie in
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From page 187... ...
coastal zones, Relocation of some affecting service to runways, if the highest-density feasible populations in the United States Precipitation: Increases in delays due Impacts on structural More disruption and Increases in drainage increase in to convective integrity of airport facili- delays in air service capacity and intense precipita- weather ties More airport closures improvement of tion events Storm water runoff that Destruction or disabling of drainage systems exceeds the capacity navigation aid instru- supporting runways of collection sys- ments and other paved sur tems, causing Runway and other infra- faces flooding, delays, and structure damage due to airport closings flooding Implications for emer- Inadequate or damaged gency evacuation pavement drainage planning, facility systems maintenance, and safety management Precipitation: Decreased visibility at increases in airports located in drought condi- drought-susceptible tions for some areas with potential regions for increased wild fires (continued)
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From page 188... ...
ANNEX 5-1C (continued) Potential Climate Changes, Impacts on Air Transportation, and Adaptation Options Impacts on Aviation Adaptation Options Changes in Potential Climate Operations and Infrastructure Design Change Interruptions Infrastructure Changes in Operations and Materials Other Precipitation: Benefits for safety and Inadequate or damaged Increases in drainage changes in reduced interrup- pavement drainage capacity and seasonal precipi- tions if frozen systems improvement of tation and river precipitation shifts drainage systems flow patterns to rainfall supporting runways and other paved sur faces Storms: more fre- More frequent interrup- Damage to landside facili- Hardening of terminals quent strong tions in air service ties (e.g., terminals, and other facilities hurricanes navigation aids, (Category 4–5)
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