Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation Special Report 290 (2008) / Chapter Skim
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3 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation
3 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation
Pages 79-123
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From page 79... ...
Then, the potential impacts of the major climate change factors of relevance for U.S. transportation identified in the previous chapter are described for each transportation mode.
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Sea level rise, which climate scientists now believe to be virtually cer tain, in combination with expected population growth, will aggravate the situation, making housing and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas even more vulnerable to extensive flooding and higher storm surges. An estimated 60,000 miles of coastal highways is already exposed to periodic coastal storm flooding and wave action (Douglass et al.
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. Several thousand off-shore drilling platforms, dozens of refineries, and thousands of miles of pipelines are vulnerable to disruption and damage from storm surge and high winds of tropical storms, as was recently demonstrated by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
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To illustrate, the Port of Gulfport, Mississippi, which was competing with New Orleans to be the second-largest container port in the Gulf, was 95 percent destroyed by the 30-foot storm surge from Hurricane Katrina (Plume 2005)
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POTENTIAL IMPACTS BY TRANSPORTATION MODE The impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure will differ depending on the particular mode of transportation, its geographic loca
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Permafrost decline will affect Arctic land forms and hydrol ogy, with potentially adverse effects on the stability of road- and rail beds. And sea level rise will affect coastal land forms, exposing many coastal areas to storm surge as barrier islands and other natural barriers dis appear.
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Impacts of Warming Temperatures and Temperature Extremes Land Transportation Modes Land transportation modes comprise highways (including bridges and tunnels) ; rail (including private rail lines and public transportation)
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Pipelines in the lower 48 states are not likely to experi ence adverse effects from heat extremes. Marine Transportation Marine transportation infrastructure includes ports and harbors and supporting intermodal terminals and the ships and barges that use these facilities.
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. Because of the complex interaction among warmer temperatures, reduced lake ice, and increased evaporation, however, all nine climate model simulations suggest lower lake levels as the climate warms (Great Lakes Regional Assessment Team 2000)
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Warming temperatures and possible increases in temperature extremes will affect airport ground facilities -- runways in particular -- in much the same way that they will affect roads. In Alaska, where use of air transport is atypically high relative to land transportation modes and many airstrips are built on permafrost, continued retreat and thawing of permafrost could undermine runway foundations, necessitating major repairs or even relocation of some landing strips (Annex 3-1; U.S.
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Engineers must be prepared to deal with the resulting erosion and subsidence of road bases and rail beds, as well as erosion and scouring of bridge supports.10 Interruption of road and rail traffic is likely to become more common with more frequent flooding. The impact of sea level rise is limited to coastal areas, but the effect of intense precipitation on land transportation infrastructure and operations is not.
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. Marine Transportation Coastal ports and harbor facilities will be affected by increased intense precipitation and sea level rise.
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The navigability of others, however, could be adversely affected by changes in sedimentation rates and the location of shoals. In other areas, a combination of sea level rise and storm surge could eliminate waterway systems entirely.
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The vulnerability of different transportation modes, as well as their resilience to intense tropi cal storms, is well documented by the case study of the transportation sector's response to and recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita dis cussed later in this chapter. REVIEW OF ASSESSMENTS FOR PARTICULAR AREAS OR REGIONS Few studies have attempted to examine the potential impacts of climate change on transportation in a particular area or region.
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More important, the combined effect of sea level rise and storm surge could result in flood heights for the 100-year coastal storm of 3.2 to 4.2 m (10.5 to nearly 14 ft) above the current reference height of 2.96 m (nearly 10 ft)
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Reprinted with permission of Elsevier Limited, Oxford, United Kingdom.)
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The MEC study proposes several measures, including incorporating sea level rise into the design, siting, and construction of new infrastructure facilities or renovation of existing facilities; recognizing sea level rise in federal Flood Insurance Rate Maps used by many local jurisdictions for land use planning and construction regulations; instituting land use measures to prevent new or further development in highly vulnerable coastal areas; and constructing strategically placed storm surge barriers, similar to those in operation in
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From page 96... ...
The concern is that global warming may result in sea level rise and increased flooding, higher peak summer temperatures, and more frequent and intense winter and summer storms with higher storm surges. At the same time, continued population and economic growth will result in increased development pressure on already vulnerable coastal and river ine areas, increasing not only the amount of infrastructure at risk but also the amount of runoff that must be handled by area rivers, streams, and storm water systems (Suarez et al.
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. 17 Two climate states were modeled -- one assuming no climate change, projecting past trends into the future by bootstrapping from 50 years of rainfall and sea level data for the Boston area, and the second assuming climate changes in line with available climate model predictions.
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The study identified five potential types of impact. First, increased winter precipitation could lead to more flooding and landslides, which could damage the city's transportation infrastructure and underlying utilities and hamper the mobility and safety of travel.18 More flooding, for example, could overwhelm the existing storm water drainage system, causing soil saturation and surface erosion.
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From page 99... ...
In response to the report, SDOT noted that it is including climate change as a factor in the scoping of new projects. It is also undertaking a new asset management effort that will focus on replacement cycles for all transportation infrastructure; climate change impacts will be considered as one factor in determining the adequacy of proposed replacement and rehabilitation projects (E.
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(b) FIGURE 3-3 Potential impacts of climate change on Seattle's transportation infrastructure.
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. Finally, SDOT officials recommended an interdepartmental team to coordinate a comprehensive assessment of projections for sea level rise, as well as data on other issues related to climate change, that could be used to revise existing or establish new and consistent standards reflecting climate change across all city infrastructure investment projects (Soo Hoo and Sumitani 2005)
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Arctic Research Commission Permafrost Task Force 2003) considered the impacts of a warming Arctic on both Alaska and its infrastructure, particularly the effects on permafrost.
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More than half of the 800-mile pipeline is elevated on vertical supports over thaw-unstable permafrost to avoid problems of permafrost degradation, soil liquefaction, and land subsidence (U.S. Arctic Research Commission Permafrost Task Force 2003)
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Most of the state's transportation infrastructure was designed for permafrost, and those systems with relatively short rehabilitation cycles relative to projected climate changes will have time to adapt to the changes. Nevertheless, projected changes are likely to require at best increased monitoring of climate conditions and higher maintenance costs, and at worst more major retrofits or even relocation of some facil ities.
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However, the geography that makes the coastal area dangerous during hurricanes also makes it attractive for industrial and commercial development. Several of the nation's most heavily used ports are located along the Gulf Coast.
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Just three bridges that carry highway US-90 along the edge of the Gulf Coast failed to reopen until mid- to late 2007, approximately 2 years after they were destroyed. The fact that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita had only a modest impact on national-level freight flows can be attributed primarily to redundancies in the transportation system, the timing of the storms, and the track of Hurricane Rita.
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From page 107... ...
Similarly, adequate manpower is critical to timely efforts to restore transportation services and staff restoration projects. Because of the devastation wreaked by Hurricane Katrina, many public- and private-sector employees lost family and homes in the storm, and many others evacuated the region; New Orleans itself was closed for more than a month.
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Westbound span Heavily damaged Aug.
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Aug.
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Major Transportation Facilities Damaged and Closed by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Cost to Repair Element of Infrastructure Issue ($ millions) Closed On Closed Until Rail Corridors CSX: Gulf Coast Mainline Heavily damaged 250.0 Aug.
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Aug.
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transportation will be widespread and costly. According to the most recent scientific assessment, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the greatest impact of climate change on North America's transportation system will be coastal flooding, especially along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, because of sea level rise, aggravated in some locations by land subsidence and storm surge (Burkett 2002)
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Thus, transportation decision makers will need to adopt a more probabilistic risk management approach to infrastructure planning, design, and operations to accommodate uncertainties about the nature and timing of expected climate changes -- a major focus of the next chapter. REFERENCES Abbreviations ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics CBO Congressional Budget Office FHWA Federal Highway Administration NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OFCM Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research USDOT U.S.
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In The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation, Summary and Discussion Papers, Federal Research Partnership Workshop, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., Oct.
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2007. Vulnerability of the New York City Metropolitan Area to Coastal Hazards, Including Sea Level Rise -- Inferences for Urban Coastal Risk Management and Adaptation Policies.
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In The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation, Summary and Discussion Papers, Federal Research Partnership Workshop, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., Oct.
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ANNEX 3-1 Potential Climate Changes and Impacts on Transportation Impacts on Land Transportation (Highways, Rail, Pipeline) Impacts on Marine Transportation Impacts on Air Transportation Potential Climate Operations and Operations and Operations and Change Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Temperature: Limitations on Impacts on Impacts on ship- Delays due to Heat-related increases in very periods of pavement and ping due to excessive heat weathering and hot days and construction concrete warmer water in Impact on lift-off buckling of heat waves activity due to construction rivers and lakes load limits at pavements and health and practices high-altitude or concrete safety concerns; Thermal expansion hot-weather facilities restrictions on bridge expan- airports with Heat-related typically begin at sion joints and insufficient weathering of 29.5°C (85°F)
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Impacts on Marine Transportation Impacts on Air Transportation Potential Climate Operations and Operations and Operations and Change Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure sustained air temperature over 32°C (90°F) is a significant threshold Rail-track deformi ties; air temp erature above 43°C (110°F)
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, and Possible availabil pipelines ity of a Northern Shorter season for Sea Route or a ice roads Northwest Passage Temperature: later Changes in Reduced pavement Extended shipping onset of seasonal seasonal weight deterioration season for freeze and earlier restrictions resulting from inland water onset of seasonal Changes in less exposure to ways (especially thaw seasonal fuel freezing, snow, the St. Lawrence requirements and ice, but Seaway and the Improved mobility possibility of Great Lakes)
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From page 120... ...
Impacts on Marine Transportation Impacts on Air Transportation Potential Climate Operations and Operations and Operations and Change Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Sea level rise, added More frequent Inundation of More severe storm Changes in harbor Potential for Inundation of to storm surge interruptions in roads and rail surges, requir- and port closure or airport runways travel on coastal lines in coastal ing evacuation facilities to restrictions for located in and low-lying areas accommodate several of the coastal areas roadways and More frequent or higher tides and top 50 airports rail service due severe flooding storm surges that lie in to storm surges of underground Reduced clearance coastal zones, More severe storm tunnels and low- under waterway affecting service surges, requir- lying infra- bridges to the highest ing evacuation structure Changes in density Erosion of road navigability of populations in base and bridge channels; some the United supports will be more States Bridge scour accessible (and Reduced clearance farther inland) under bridges because of Loss of coastal deeper waters, wetlands and while others will barrier shoreline be restricted Land subsidence because of changes in sedimentation rates and shoal locations
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From page 121... ...
Precipitation: Increases in Increases in flood- Increases in Impacts on harbor Increases in delays Impacts on struc increase in weather-related ing of roadways, weather-related infrastructure due to convec- tural integrity of intense delays rail lines, and delays from wave dam- tive weather airport facilities precipitation Increases in traffic subterranean age and storm Storm water runoff Destruction or dis events disruptions tunnels surges that exceeds the abling of Increased flooding Overloading of Changes in under- capacity of col- navigation aid of evacuation drainage sys- water surface lection systems, instruments routes tems, causing and silt and causing flood- Runway and other Disruption of backups and debris buildup, ing, delays, and infrastructure construction street flooding which can affect airport closings damage due to activities Increases in road channel depth Implications for flooding Changes in rain, washout, dam- emergency Inadequate or snowfall, and ages to rail bed evacuation plan- damaged pave seasonal flood- support struc- ning, facility ment drainage ing that affect tures, and maintenance, systems safety and landslides and and safety maintenance mudslides that management operations damage road ways and tracks Impacts on soil moisture levels, affecting struc tural integrity of roads, bridges, and tunnels Adverse impacts of standing water on the road base (continued)
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From page 122... ...
Impacts on Marine Transportation Impacts on Air Transportation Potential Climate Operations and Operations and Operations and Change Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Interruptions Infrastructure Increases in scour ing of pipeline roadbeds and damages to pipelines Precipitation: Increased Increased Impacts on river Decreased visibility increases susceptibility susceptibility to transportation for airports in drought to wildfires, wildfires that routes and located in conditions causing road threaten trans- seasons drought for some closures due to portation susceptible regions fire threat or infrastructure areas with reduced directly potential for visibility Increased suscep- increased tibility to mud- wildfires slides in areas deforested by wildfires Precipitation: Benefits for safety Increased risk of Periodic channel Changes in silt Benefits for safety Inadequate or changes in and reduced floods from closings or deposition lead- and reduced damaged pave seasonal interruptions if runoff, land- restrictions if ing to reduced interruptions if ment drainage precipitation frozen precipita- slides, slope flooding depth of some frozen precipita- systems and river flow tion shifts to failures, and increases inland water- tion shifts to patterns ways and rainfall
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emergency ing fixtures, and and other dock evacuations supports and terminal Decreased expected facilities lifetime of high ways exposed to storm surge
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