Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation Special Report 290 (2008) / Chapter Skim
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transportation, including the limitations of present scientific understanding as to their precise timing, magnitude, and geographic location; identifies potential impacts on U.S. transportation and adaptation options; and offers recommendations for both research and actions that can be taken to prepare for climate change.
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: • Increases in very hot days and heat waves, • Increases in Arctic temperatures, • Rising sea levels, • Increases in intense precipitation events, and • Increases in hurricane intensity. Climate scientists have the greatest confidence in projected changes in mean temperature and other climate factors at the global or continental scale; confidence in these projections diminishes as the geographic scale is
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Nor do the global projections include the full effects of increased melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice masses because current understanding of these effects is too limited to permit projection of an upper bound on sea level rise. Increases in intense precipitation events.
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However, these changes are unlikely to be experienced in such a smooth manner because those induced by human activity will be ampli fied in some years by naturally fluctuating conditions, reflected in potentially sudden and dramatic changes at the regional or local level. For example, many climate scientists caution that warming temperatures may trigger weather extremes and surprises, such as more rapid melting of the Arctic sea ice or more rapid rises in sea levels than are projected by cur rent models.
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Transportation infrastructure was designed for typical weather patterns, reflecting local climate and incorporating assumptions about a reasonable range of temperatures and precipitation levels. Finding: Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes, such as very hot days; intense precipitation events; intense hurri canes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm surges and land subsidence.
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, traffic-related rutting, migration of liquid Limits on periods of construction activity due to asphalt health and safety concerns Rail-track deformities Increases in Arctic Longer ocean transport season and more ice-free Thawing of permafrost, causing subsidence of roads, temperatures ports in northern regions rail beds, bridge supports (cave-in) , pipelines, and Possible availability of a northern sea route or a runway foundations northwest passage Shorter season for ice roads Rising sea levels, More frequent interruptions to coastal and low-lying Inundation of roads, rail lines, and airport runways in combined with storm roadway travel and rail service due to storm surges coastal areas surges More severe storm surges, requiring evacuation or More frequent or severe flooding of underground tun changes in development patterns nels and low-lying infrastructure
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Potential for closure or restrictions at several of the Erosion of road base and bridge supports top 50 airports that lie in coastal zones, affecting Reduced clearance under bridges service to the highest-density populations in the Changes in harbor and port facilities to accommodate United States higher tides and storm surges Increases in intense Increases in weather-related delays and traffic Increases in flooding of roadways, rail lines, sub precipitation events disruptions terranean tunnels, and runways Increased flooding of evacuation routes Increases in road washout, damages to rail-bed sup Increases in airline delays due to convective weather port structures, and landslides and mudslides that damage roadways and tracks Increases in scouring of pipeline roadbeds and dam age to pipelines More frequent strong More frequent interruptions in air service Greater probability of infrastructure failures hurricanes More frequent and potentially more extensive Increased threat to stability of bridge decks (Category 4–5) emergency evacuations Impacts on harbor infrastructure from wave damage More debris on roads and rail lines, interrupting travel and storm surges and shipping
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More severe weather events with intense precipitation could increase the severity of extensive flooding events, such as the storms that plagued the Midwest during the 1993 flooding of the Mississippi and Missouri River system, the Chicago area in 1996, and the Houston region during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Flooding of a waterway system can knock out barge operations on the river itself, rail operations on rights-of way adjacent to the river, and even highway approaches to bridges crossing flooded rivers.
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The inventorying process itself should also help identify with greater precision the data needed from climate scientists on transportation-relevant climate changes. DECISION FRAMEWORK Transportation decision makers have an opportunity now to prepare for projected climate changes.
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Prudent choices today could avoid some of these costs. Finding: The significant costs of redesigning and retrofitting transportation infrastructure to adapt to potential impacts of climate change suggest the need for more strategic, risk-based approaches to investment decisions.
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It will also require educating policy makers to gain their support and may well necessitate new eligibility criteria in funding programs and new funding sources so the investments identified by the application of these techniques can be made. DATA AND DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS Transportation decision makers note that one of the most difficult aspects of addressing climate change is obtaining the relevant information in the form needed for planning and design purposes.
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For example, the research program of the USDOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting could be charged with expanding its existing research program in this area and provided the necessary fund ing. Needed tools include highly accurate digital elevation maps in coastal areas for forecasting the effects of flooding and storm surge heights; GIS that can be used to map the locations of critical infrastructure, overlaid with information on climate change effects (e.g., sea level rise, permafrost melt)
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transportation and how transportation professionals can best adapt to climate changes that are already occurring and will continue to occur into the foreseeable future, even if drastic mitigation measures were taken today. Operational Responses Climate extremes and abrupt changes, such as storms and precipitation of increased intensity, will require near-term operational responses from transportation providers.
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Finding: Greater use of technology would enable infrastructure providers to monitor climate changes and receive advance warn ing of potential failures due to water levels and currents, wave action, winds, and temperatures exceeding what the infrastruc ture was designed to withstand. Recommendation 7: Federal and academic research programs should encourage the development and implementation of monitoring technologies that could provide advance warning of pending failures due to the effects of weather and climate extremes on major transportation facilities.
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Are infrastructure components sufficiently strong to withstand the forces of larger and more frequent storm surges and more powerful wave action, the effects of which were vividly demonstrated when Hurricane Katrina simply lifted bridge decks off their supporting structures? Finding: Reevaluating, developing, and regularly updating design standards for transportation infrastructure to address the impacts of climate change will require a broad-based research and testing program and a substantial implementation effort.
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The initial focus should be on essential links in transportation networks, particularly those vulnerable to climate change in coastal or other low lying areas in riverside locations. Recommendation 10: In the short term, state and federally funded transportation infrastructure rehabilitation projects in highly vulnerable locations should be rebuilt to higher stan dards, and greater attention should be paid to the provision of redundant power and communications systems to ensure rapid restoration of transportation services in the event of failure.
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Transportation planners currently consider expected land use patterns when forecasting future travel demand and infrastructure needs. However, they rarely question whether such development is desirable, much less what effects climate change might have on the provision and development of infrastructure in vulnerable locations.
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Finding: The National Flood Insurance Program and the FIRMs used to determine program eligibility do not take climate change into account. Recommendation 13: FEMA should reevaluate the risk reduc tion effectiveness of the National Flood Insurance Program and the FIRMs, particularly in view of projected increases in
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Recommendation 14: Incentives incorporated in federal and state legislation should be considered as a means of address ing and mitigating the impacts of climate change through regional and multistate efforts. For example, states could use updated FIRMs or their own state maps to identify geographic areas vulnerable to climate change and craft policies for restricting transportation investments and limiting insurance in these locations.
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A strong federal role is needed to implement many of the committee's recommendations that require broad-based action or regulation, such as creation of a clearinghouse for information on transportation and climate change, the research program to reevaluate existing and develop new design standards for addressing climate change, creation of an interagency working group on adaptation, changes in federal regulations regarding long-range planning guidelines and infrastructure rehabilitation require ments, and reevaluation of the National Flood Insurance Program. Many of the committee's recommendations, however, need not await federal action.
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