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Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment A Call for Change (2008) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix G: On the Quantification of Uncertainty and Enhancing Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Pages 111-115

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From page 111...
... Thus the risk management. Part 1 can serve as a supplement to the modern notion of risk entails the twin notions of probability "Lexicon of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Terms" given in (or chance)
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From page 112...
... of probability is subscribed to by all Bayesian approach. Under the frequentist approach, PRA (save the axiom of countable additivity which to de Finetti can only be done when hard data on the basic events are at is unnecessary)
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From page 113...
... Decision theorists are atarise in the context of forensics, accident investigation, or tracted to decision trees for the same reason that engineers failure diagnosis. liking fault trees, event trees, and PRA; graphics is the The need to entertain fuzzy sets has led Zadeh (1979)
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From page 114...
... issues aside, the calibration method suggested by Cooke The effect of all this would be an expansion of the requires empirical data; and in the absence of such data, event and fault trees and the assessment of several modulating the assessed probabilities based on one's assess- conditional probabilities. ment of the expertise of the experts is a desirable option.
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From page 115...
... However, the decision tree certainty in Risk Assessment: The Bayesian Approach." Human and itself pertains to the actions that D1 should take, taking into Ecological Risk Assessment 7(2)
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Key Terms

  • sample space
  • decision tree
  • adversarial decision
  • possibility theory
  • decision trees

  • probabilistic risk
  • subjective probabilities
  • terrorist risk
  • fault trees
  • fuzzy sets

  • single decision
  • royal statistical
  • probability measures
  • dynamic nature
  • basic events

  • event trees
  • agent risk
  • decision nodes
  • bayesian approach
  • assessed probabilities

  • subjective probability
  • real line
  • assessed subjective
  • layered defense
  • fault tree

  • biological agent
  • hard data
  • statistical society
  • adversarial actions
  • decision maker


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