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Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment A Call for Change (2008) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix I: Review of BTRA Modeling
Pages 122-125

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From page 122...
... Random variables DHS determines the consequence distributions through are uppercase symbols, P()
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From page 123...
... , j = 1,…, 500 is produced has accommodated SME uncertainty by allowing the branch by Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of the branch probprobabilities themselves to be random quantities, with the abilities, each sample including the standard average risk SMEs merely agreeing to a distribution for each probability, ˆ computations for the event tree.
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From page 124...
... DHS claims graphically that the LHS else proportional to the SME's agent input, the proportionalsample fractiles are also the fractiles of the random variable ity constant being selected in each of the 32 cases so that the E(Ya | θ)
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From page 125...
... Epistemic uncertainty is not even discussed in Risk Terminology and Methodological Description of the most decision theory textbooks. Standard software for han- DHS Bioterrorism Risk Assessment." April 16.
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Key Terms

  • homeland security
  • branch probabilities
  • random variables
  • random variable
  • beta distributions

  • bioterrorism risk
  • postgraduate school
  • total consequences
  • expressing definite
  • standard software

  • conditional expectation
  • operations research
  • epistemic uncertainty
  • naval postgraduate
  • significant modification

  • agent lethality
  • contagious diseases
  • event trees
  • agent selection
  • standard event

  • single event
  • expectation theorem
  • sample mean
  • definite values
  • mean damage

  • described earlier
  • sme elicitation
  • dhs determines
  • experts feel
  • standard average


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