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Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment A Call for Change (2008) / Chapter Skim
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4 Department of Homeland Security Decision Requirements for Risk Management
Pages 34-41

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From page 34...
... -- Department of Homeland Security, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment, 2006 RISK MANAGEMENT REQUIRES TIMELY, How much lead time (i.e., response time) is needed ACCURATE INFORMATION to implement effective interventions?
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From page 35...
... As the United States requires a periodic senior-level policy described in Chapter 3 of this report, the DHS Biological net assessment that evaluates progress in implementing Threat Risk Assessment (BTRA) of 2006 is one of the first this policy, identifies continuing gaps or vulnerabilities in terrorism risk assessment efforts to integrate information our biodefense posture, and makes recommendations for from a variety of sources to meet information needs.
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From page 36...
... . each given resource level or budget, the allocation of The accuracy of quantitative bioterrorism risk assess countermeasures that maximizes total risk reduction ment models and the confidence placed in them depend on (or equivalently, for a given level of risk reduction, the validity of the assumptions and the availability of sound identifies the least-cost deployment of countermeasures data for each of the biological agents being analyzed.
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From page 37...
... a third party, with suitable software and expertise, from reproducing the results -- violating a basic principle of the Given the importance of establishing the confidence of de scientific method. cision makers and stakeholders in risk assessment models, Finally, the current BTRA implementation must be run it is essential to strive for the highest level of transparency on a custom computer cluster in a DHS contractor facility possible while being sensitive to the need to restrict access taking many hours to compute; also the data are cumberto those with a need to know.
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From page 38...
... database used in the BTRA of 2006. Systematic use of well-grounded management capabilities that provide access to relational models can guide decision makers to account for these prob databases, information, and knowledge from a variety of abilities correctly.
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From page 39...
... Decision makers purposes of sensitivity analyses are to (1) give users of risk commonly deal with the uncertainty of future events by using assessment models information that they can use to identify "what-if" scenarios, which can bound uncertainty and bring key parameters and explore a range of impacts that can be multiple stakeholders together to consider a shared, selected expected with changes in input and parameter values, and set of hypothesized chains of events in narrative form, and to to evaluate the confidence they can place on model outputs; consider alternatives (Pomerol, 2001)
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From page 40...
... A comprehensive and continually updated set of sion makers; whether they are being conveyed in the most guidelines, protocols, and checklists that provide essential understandable, useful, and compelling manner possible; and details on clear courses of actions that decision makers would whether the current sensitivity analysis feature is meeting make, conditional on the information made available to them information needs. User-friendly sensitivity analysis could from risk assessment models analyzing a set of structured also be a part of any DSS.
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From page 41...
... 2002. "Past, Present, and Future of Decision Support Technol Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis.
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Key Terms

  • decision support
  • sensitivity analysis
  • bioterrorism risk
  • assessment models
  • sensitivity analyses

  • risk analysis
  • risk reduction
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  • accessed january
  • threat risk

  • key parameters
  • model outputs
  • biological threat
  • effective risk
  • agent risk

  • health risk
  • sound risk
  • mitigate bioterrorism
  • security presidential
  • inappropriate policy

  • cision makers
  • sion makers
  • biological agent
  • management strategies
  • biothreat agents

  • planning scenarios
  • input data
  • multiple stakeholders
  • confidence placed
  • compelling manner


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