Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies A Focus on Hydrogen (2008) / Chapter Skim
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6 Hydrogen and Alternative Technologies for Reduction of U.S. Oil Use and CO2 Emissions
6 Hydrogen and Alternative Technologies for Reduction of U.S. Oil Use and CO2 Emissions
Pages 73-92
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From page 73... ...
The main object of the scenario analysis is to estimate the -- Case 1b (Hydrogen Partial Success) assumes that maximum practicable penetration rate of fuel cell vehicles, developing programs fall short of the costs and performance and then to estimate the resulting reductions of petroleum use of Case 1 (Hydrogen Success)
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From page 74... ...
: HFCV 0 Case 1b (H2 Partial 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 TOTAL 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Success) : HFCV Year Year color Figure 6-1.eps FIGURE 6.1 Hydrogen cases: Number of gasoline and hydrogen FIGURE 6.2 Hydrogen cases: Fraction of new gasoline and hydro color Figure 6-2.eps fuel cell vehicles in the fleet over time for three hydrogen cases.
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From page 75... ...
oil use and greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, infrastructure and scenario analysis: because they are unlikely to enter the market before 20122018, and then it will take time to build up a large enough 1. Hydrogen infrastructure model: designs and costs number of vehicles to impact oil use and carbon emissions hydrogen infrastructure to meet a specified market penetrasignificantly.
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From page 76... ...
consumed as: Blend in gasoline to 10% 3.4 12.7 15.6 21 E 85 0.01 0.06 0.20 Greenhouse gas emissions (million tonnes CO2 equivalent per year) 1,345 1,442 1,527 1,710 were quite adequate for the purpose of scoping the potential on the DOE National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)
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From page 77... ...
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and a gasoline reference vehicle for each hydrogen case. HFCV costs are based on an 80 The drivetrain and fuel storage for a reference gasoline kW fuel cell "engine" with 5 kg (165 kWh)
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From page 78... ...
. The hydrogen fuel cell 2007b)
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From page 79... ...
at The assumed capital costs of different hydrogen produc5 percent of gasoline stations. As demand grows, capacity tion systems are summarized in Table 6.4, based on H2A's is added at each of these stations to make them 1,500 kg/d future (2015)
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From page 80... ...
In terms of the amount of hydrogen produced, coal- The total infrastructure capital cost is about $2,000 per based hydrogen is the dominant source, with significant car served by the system. The total capital costs to build a
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From page 81... ...
Billion $ 20 CAP COST Diff Vehicles (Gas Investment Costs for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles to 0 minus H2) Reach Cost Competitiveness FUEL COST Diff -20 (Gas minus H2)
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From page 82... ...
Total cost to build infrastructure for $8.2 billion demand at LCC breakeven year Most of the negative cash flow is due to the high price of Year when hydrogen fuel cost per 2016 the first few million fuel cell vehicles. This is not surpris- kilometer = gasoline price per ing, since, initially, fuel cell vehicles cost a lot more than kilometer gasoline vehicles (see Figure 6.6)
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From page 83... ...
400 200 Oil Displacement 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 6.15 estimates gasoline consumption for the Year Hydrogen Success case and the reference case. Oil displacement is about 0.8 percent in 2020, rising to 24 percent in 2035 FIGURE 6.16 Case 1 greenhouse gas emissions relative to the and 69 percent in 2050.
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From page 84... ...
to get to the breakeven year. TABLE 6.1.1 Range Over Which Parameter Values Can Vary for Case 1 Parameter Low Value Case 1 Value High Value Fuel economy of HFCV versus fuel 1.3 2 3 economy of efficient gasoline car Incremental cost of HFCV compared 1,713 3,600 6,800 to reference gasoline vehicle (FC system = $50/kW; (FC system = $50/kW; (FC system = $62/kW; H2 H2 storage = $2/kWh)
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From page 85... ...
100 As expected, the breakeven year is delayed and buydown costs 90 Fuel Economy Ratio 80 (FCV/Gasoline ICEV) are higher if the HFCV price is higher, the HFCV is less efficient, 70 FCV Price Increment Billion $ or hydrogen costs more than in Case 1.
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From page 86... ...
Greenhouse gas emissions 200 Gasoline HEV 150 are reduced by about 24 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per TOTAL 100 year (1.7 percent) by 2020, 385 million tonnes (25 percent)
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The committee extended this to Year assume that in the reference case, cellulosic ethanol produc tion reaches 9 billion gallons per year by 2050. The assumed FIGURE 6.20 Greenhouse gas emissions for Case 2 and for the reference case.
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From page 88... ...
The committee has not 6.26. In the near to mid term, improving the fuel economy estimated the costs of building biofuel production plants or of gasoline vehicles will be the most effective option for changes in the fuel distribution infrastructure that might be reducing oil use and greenhouse gas emissions.
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From page 89... ...
600 400 200 Case 1 + Case 2: HFCVs + ICEV Efficiency 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 This case combines higher gasoline vehicle efficiency Year with introduction of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (Case 1 and Case 2)
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From page 90... ...
With a com- ICEV Efficiency bined approach including efficiency, biofuels, and hydrogen (Case 2) + Biofuels fuel cells, it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions by about 90 (Case 3)
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From page 91... ...
oil and CO2 reductions would result from implementing existing FIGURE 6.34 Cumulative reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Figure6-34.eps for Case 2, Case 3 plus Case 2, and Case 4.
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From page 92... ...
Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Hydrogen Fuel Production in the United Argonne National Laboratory.
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