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3 Historical, Scientific, and Technological Approaches to Studying the Climate-Disease Connection
Pages 179-218

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From page 179...
... Historical analysis provides a perspective on climate and infectious disease far more sweeping than can be obtained from scientific monitoring, as demonstrated in this chapter's first paper, which chronicles the association between drought and epidemic disease and its influence on Mexican civilizations over the past millennium. Searching the historical record of the Valley of Mexico for evidence of famines and epidemics, speaker Rodolfo Acuña-Soto of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, and coauthors identified several drought-associated epidemics of hemorrhagic fevers that had swept the region, 179
From page 180...
... Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife arise when the delicate balance of host, pathogen, and environment is disturbed. Therefore, these events represent a critical target for infectious disease monitoring efforts of all sorts, including those that seek to track the influence of climate change, according to speaker William Karesh of the Wildlife Conservation Society.
From page 181...
... and disease incidence have proven to be useful indicators of risk for a variety of infectious diseases. However, as speaker William Reisen noted, such correlations are not universally applicable and may have to be interpreted in light of other important environmental influences on infectious disease transmission (see also Summary and Assessment section "Predictive Models")
From page 182...
... In the case of West Nile virus (WNV) , early-season temperature measurements are paramount, because the effects of precipitation on viral transmission have been found to vary among regions (Reisen et al., in press)
From page 183...
... Similar catastrophic events occurred during the sixteenth century, when the Valley of Mexico, as well as the whole country, lost 80 to 90 percent of its inhabitants due to highly lethal epidemics. During the seventeenth to twentieth centuries, the population again went through several calamitous periods of high mortality, droughts, famines, and epidemics (Gerhard, 1986; León, 1982; Ocaranza, 1933; Therrell et al., 2004; Yu-ping and Heligman, 1994)
From page 184...
... . After the Conquest in 1520, famines were recorded with decreasing frequency in the following centuries: 10 in the sixteenth century, 8 in the seventeenth century, and 5 in the eighteenth century; no major famines were recorded during the nineteenth or twentieth centuries.
From page 185...
... APPROACHES TO STUDYING THE CLIMATE-DISEASE CONNECTION 185 TABLE 3-1  Famines in the Valley of Mexico Years Causes Remarks  1 1003-1011 Drought, war Famine, epidemic, high mortality  2 1029-1035 Drought Famine, high mortality  3 1253 Drought Famine, epidemic  4 1332-1335 Drought Famine  5 1382-1385 Floods Famine  6 1403 Locust Famine  7 1430 Drought Famine  8 1434 Drought Famine  9 1446-1456 Locust, floods, frost, snow, drought Famine, probably associated with epidemic of hemorrhagic fever, high mortality 10 1464 Heat waves, strong winds Famine 11 1488 Locust Famine 12 1492 Floods Famine 13 1498-1499 Floods Famine 14 1503-1505 Drought Famine, high mortality 15 1514 Drought Famine 16 1520-1521 War, first smallpox epidemic Famine 17 1538-1539 Second smallpox epidemic Famine 18 1541-1548 Drought, frost, strong winds, crop Famine, epidemic of hemorrhagic disease. fevers, high mortality 19 1550-1555 Drought, mumps epidemic Famine 20 1558-1559 Frost, locust Famine, epidemic of hemorrhagic fevers 21 1562-1564 Drought, epidemics Famine, epidemics of measles, smallpox, and hemorrhagic fevers; high mortality 22 1571-1573 Drought, epidemic Famine, epidemic of unknown origin 23 1576-1579 Drought Famine, epidemic of hemorrhagic fever, high mortality 24 1584-1588 Drought Famine, epidemic of hemorrhagic fever, high mortality 25 1594 Drought, frost, heat waves Famine 26 1610-1613 Drought, frost, strong winds Famine 27 1615-1517 Drought, frost Famine, epidemic of measles 28 1621-1623 Drought Famine 29 1629 Floods Famine 30 1634-1635 Drought Famine, epidemic of whooping cough 31 1639-1642 Drought Famine, epidemics of measles, whooping cough, and hemorrhagic fever 32 1658-1663 Drought Famine, epidemic of measles 33 1691-1697 Drought, frost, floods, speculation Famine, riots, epidemics of measles and other unknown diseases continued
From page 186...
... Number Duration (years) Mortalitya  1 Hemorrhagic fevers: 24 1.78 ± .62 4 cocoliztli, matlazahuatl  2 Smallpox 20 1.22 ± .42 5  3 Typhus 18 1.25 ± 1.94 3  4 Unknown 19 1.30 ± 1.41 3  5 Measles 13 1.21 ± .42 3  6 Influenza 7 1.0 ± 0 1  7 Typhoid fever 4 1.25 ± .50 0  8 Poliomyelitis 3 1.4 ± .54 0  9 Cholera 3 3.0 ± 2 2 10 Whooping cough 2 1.0 ± 0 0 11 Scarlet fever 2 1.5 ± .70 0 12 Mumps 1 1.0 ± 0 1 13 Chickenpox 1 1.0 ± 0 1 14 Meningitis 1 1.0 ± 0 0 15 Croup 1 1.0 ± 0 0 a >1% of the total population.
From page 187...
... Influenza behaved with the same periodic outbreaks as it does in the rest of the world, and hemorrhagic fevers reemerged locally from a distant past. The four most destructive epidemics (see Table 3-3)
From page 188...
... events of the sixteenth century in the same area, it has been proposed recently that drought-associated epidemics of hemorrhagic fever may have contributed to the massive population loss during the collapse of Teotihuacán (Acuña-Soto et al., 2005)
From page 189...
... Drought-Associated Epidemics of Hemorrhagic Fevers of the Sixteenth Century The post-Conquest collapse of the Mexican population occurred predominantly during the sixteenth century megadrought (Acuña-Soto et al., 2000, 2002, 2004; Stahle et al., 2000)
From page 190...
... . this time, the specific factors that relate hemorrhagic fevers with drought, as well as the cause of cocoliztli, remain unknown.
From page 191...
... . Since the cause of cocoliztli remains unknown, this discussion is centered on the impact of improving communication networks on smallpox and measles, the then-emerging infectious diseases in Mexico.
From page 192...
... In this paper, we review the relationship between climate change and wildlife health and argue that monitoring wildlife health provides an effective and sensitive indicator and predictor of climate-related emerging infectious diseases.   Global Health Programs.
From page 193...
... Because most human emerging infectious diseases originate from a wildlife reservoir (Jones et al., 2008) , wildlife health is critically linked to public health.
From page 194...
... In fact, a number of vector-borne human and domestic animal diseases have increased in incidence or geographic range in recent decades (e.g., malaria, African trypanosomiasis, tick-borne encephalitis, yellow fever, plague, dengue, African horse sickness, bluetongue) (Harvell et al., 2002)
From page 195...
... . This was the first report of paralytic shellfish poisoning affecting seabirds in the southwest Atlantic, which might suggest that climate change is aiding the expansion of this type of disease to more extreme latitudes.
From page 196...
... A recent study on rodents demonstrates that poor body condition predisposes individuals to a variety of infections, and these infections further decrease the condition of individuals, triggering a "vicious cycle" that eventually ends up in death and, therefore, population declines (Beldomenico et al., 2008)
From page 197...
... In summary, there are multiple mechanisms by which climate change could affect wildlife health including, but not limited to, the following: • Expansion in the geographic distribution of pathogens, vectors, or hosts • Changes in the seasonality of some diseases • Increased severity of disease • Increased exposure to pathogens • Decreased host immunity All may result in a disruption of population and system health dynamics. Thus, independent of mechanism, monitoring the health of wildlife populations provides a sensitive and quantitative method to detect changes and serve as an early warning system.
From page 198...
... Reisen, Ph.D. University of California, Davis Christopher M Barker, M.S.9 University of California, Davis Introduction Vector-borne pathogen transmission cycles minimally consist of an arthropod vector, a vertebrate host, and a pathogen, but many are zoonotic and transmitted among a complex array of vectors and vertebrate hosts (e.g., West Nile virus; see Figure 3-2)
From page 199...
... In this paper, we explore how climate variation impacts the transmission dynamics of vector-borne disease using California's mosquito-borne encephalitis virus surveillance and control program as an example. The California program
From page 200...
... an intensive surveillance program has been consistently monitoring mosquito abundance and encephalitis virus activity for more than 50 years; and (3) there is a statewide decision support system, including a response plan, that uses surveillance data to estimate risk and recommend appropriate levels of control.
From page 201...
... and outbreaks of arbovirusesand isas Rift Valley graphics are bitmapped, but type has been replaced such real type fever virus (Anyamba et al., 2002; Linthicum et al., 1991)
From page 202...
... This is especially true for the mosquito-borne encephalitides at temperate latitudes where temperature delineates amplification and transmission season duration. Climate variation also indirectly determines the size and age structure of avian maintenance and amplifying host populations by impacting primary productivity and therefore the abundance and distribution of food sources.
From page 203...
... APPROACHES TO STUDYING THE CLIMATE-DISEASE CONNECTION 203 FIGURE 3-4  Incidence of human West Nile virus cases per million population and temperature anomalies for the United States, 2003-2007. Figure 3-4 SOURCES: CDC (2007)
From page 204...
... Equine and human cases are diagnosed by healthcare providers and confirmed serologically at local laboratories. The temporal cascade of events and surveillance data along a typical WNV amplification curve is shown in Figure 3-5.
From page 205...
... APPROACHES TO STUDYING THE CLIMATE-DISEASE CONNECTION 205 Human cases Equine cases Amplification Avian infection Mosquito infection Climate Mosquito abundance Time [months] FIGURE 3-5  Sequence of surveillance data collected during seasonal virus amplification.
From page 206...
... 5 >26°C >300% >5.0 >2 flocks in agencyb >5 in agency >2 in agency >1 in agency 5 year avg. aRegion refers to areas encompassed by the formalized regions of the California Mosquito Control Association.
From page 207...
... 12 Climate variation and forecasts provide the only early-season surveillance information upon which to gauge the response program to pending risk. Early-season response activities include preventive methods, such as equine vaccination, source reduction, larval mosquito control, and public education.
From page 208...
... 208 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS A Kern Co. 35 Duration of EIP50 Risk level 2 30 25 20 3 Days 15 5 4 10 5 0 30 26 22 18 Temp[C]
From page 209...
... , (B) the entire risk assessment model calculated bimonthly for selected mosquito control agencies, and (C)
From page 210...
... the amplification curve and (B) the transmission cycle.
From page 211...
... Acknowledgments This research was funded by the Climate Variability and Human Health and the California Applications Programs, Office of Global Programs, NOAA; Decision Support through Earth Science Results, NASA; Research Grant AI55607 from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH. We are especially indebted to the corporate members of the Mosquito and Vector Control Association of California and the California Department of Public Health who granted permission for us to utilize their surveillance data for this project.
From page 212...
... Emerging Infectious Diseases 8(4)
From page 213...
... 1948. The population of central Mexico in the sixteenth century.
From page 214...
... Mexico City: Instituto de Investigaciones Históricas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Therrell, M
From page 215...
... 2008. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases.
From page 216...
... Emerging Infectious Diseases 10(12)
From page 217...
... travelers returning from India, 2006. Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(5)
From page 218...
... Louis encephalitis virus transmission, Florida. Emerging Infectious Diseases 10(5)


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