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6 Building the Foundation for Adaptive Management
Pages 189-222

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From page 189...
... Next, progress in developing the monitoring and assessment plan is reviewed as a critical component of the adaptive management process. Specifically, the CERP System-wide Performance Measures report (RECOVER, 2007b)
From page 190...
... rather than passive adaptive management may better assist in achieving restoration goals, because substantial uncertainties remain about the degree to which a resilient, self-sustaining ecosystem can be restored under the dramatically changed environment of South Florida. Oppor tunities for active adaptive management experiments are numerous (NRC, 2007)
From page 191...
... team has fleshed out many dimensions of CERP adaptive management, including extensive work to create monitoring and assessment plans and protocols that are discussed later in this chapter. In 2006, RECOVER published the CERP adaptive management strategy, which outlines a framework for linking monitoring and assessment activities to management decisions and to plan updates and revisions at both system-wide and project levels (Figure 6-1; RECOVER, 2006a)
From page 192...
... Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD)
From page 193...
... CERP scientists hope that the scientific uncertainties associated with Decomp can be greatly reduced by the DPM such that the contentious issues regarding the project design will be lessened or even resolved. Of much graver concern to implementing Decomp are the political uncertainties associated with completion of the Tamiami Trail component of the Modified Water Deliveries to Everglades National Park project (Mod Waters)
From page 194...
... . Nevertheless, some remaining scientific and institutional chal lenges need to be squarely addressed, including improved analytical methods and ecological models for upscaling local monitoring data to subregional and system-wide evaluation, stronger coupling of hydrologic and ecological monitor ing, and the need for a mechanism to document how science has been used in support of decision making.
From page 195...
... The CERP monitoring and assessment plan is founded on conceptual ecological models that are an assembly of logical hypotheses that describe the relationships among societal actions, environmental stressors, and ecosystem characteristics and the linkages among the physical, chemical, and biological elements within the natural system. They identify key driving factors, processes, stressors, and functional relationships based on extensive reviews of scientific data (Ogden et al., 2005)
From page 196...
... . All aspects of monitoring including what is monitored and why (MAP I and Performance Measures Report)
From page 197...
... The modules are the organizing elements and research units of the monitoring and assessment plan. Each of the modules includes one or more of the conceptual ecological models briefly described in the text and in RECOVER documents (RECOVER, 2004, 2006f, 2007c)
From page 198...
... constitute the monitoring and assessment plan. The first full implementation of the assessment strategy is described in the 2007 System Status Report (RECOVER, 2007c)
From page 199...
... supports the monitoring plan by describing the set of indicators (referred to as performance measures; see Appendix F) used to determine the effects of CERP implementation.
From page 200...
... . For some of the performance measures, interim goals have also been established (see Box 6-4; Appendix G)
From page 201...
... A weakness in the Performance Measures report and the monitoring plan is that no process for periodic review of the performance measures is described, although the need to revise and adapt the performance measures is recognized (RECOVER, 2007b)
From page 202...
... The performance measures report contains a standard list of information required for each performance measure. The performance measure documen tation sheets contain information about the scientific basis for selection as an indicator; its relationship to the conceptual ecological models and adaptive management hypotheses as described in MAP I (RECOVER, 2004)
From page 203...
... . In other cases, RECOVER is not yet able to use a performance measure for either evaluation or assessment purposes, but the indicator is considered to be so important in assessing restoration progress that it was included in the monitoring  For example, the only performance measure that is used for both evaluation and assessment in the northern estuaries module is the estuarine salinity envelope: a two-part salinity target is used for planning and evaluation purposes (450–2,800 cfs at S-79 and 75 percent of the time the flow should be between 450–800 cfs)
From page 204...
... The first System Status Report contains an analysis of data col lected through the CERP monitoring and assessment plan, historical data, and data from other sources (e.g., universities; federal, state, and local agencies) to provide a pre-CERP baseline of ecosystem conditions.
From page 205...
... Although it is not clear yet how or if the 2007 System Status Report can be used to support adaptive management presently, there are clear advantages to having completed a full assessment of the ecosystem at this time. First, baselines and their variability have been established by the status report for many performance measures and interim goals.
From page 206...
... In addition, the types of monitoring data used for a single performance measure were not always consistent across the differ ent modules. For example, fish abundance was quantified in multiple ways: as standing stock in g/m2 in the Greater Everglades module, as total mass in kg for the Lake Okeechobee module, and as the number of fish per m2 for the southern estuaries module.
From page 207...
... ) , monitoring remains in the planning or early implementation stages, and the 2007 System Status Report addressed progress developing these performance measures.
From page 208...
... The module assessments also identified gaps in monitoring and addressed the adequacy of the conceptual ecological models, considering their associated uncertainties. For those performance measures with interim goals, the module-level assessments compared the current condition of the performance measure to its interim goal.
From page 209...
... A third potential outcome requires no action: that the performance measures are adequate to capture system behavior with the desired level of sensitivity, and the performance measure responses are consistent with the conceptual ecological models and hypotheses and support the interim goals. The System Status Report concludes that outcome 1 ("insufficient data and/or time available to establish pre-CERP conditions and identify trends")
From page 210...
... Questions that should be addressed during the update might include: • Based on analyses in the first System Status Report, what additional data sets might be needed for future assessments?
From page 211...
... As NRC (2007) pointed out, the sustainability of the CERP monitoring plan over the long term would benefit from a reduced set of performance measures, but that committee also cautioned that there is danger in excluding too many measures, especially during the early stages of the CERP, until more is learned about which performance measures will be most useful.
From page 212...
... CERP monitoring responsibilities at all levels of project management across and within agencies should be clearly established. While monitoring in and of itself does not ensure restoration progress, without monitoring plans tailored to improve understanding of ecosystem response and the outcomes of project implementation from local to whole ecosystem scales, uninformed management decisions will be made with potentially undesirable ecosystem consequences.
From page 213...
... Its effectiveness depends on user awareness of and competence in using available tools and applications, timely provision of research and monitoring data from primary data stewards to CERPZone, and community adherence to data standards and guidelines (these are articulated in a series of guidance memoranda)
From page 214...
... Spatial query tools currently under development will help. CERP IDM program staff should work closely with RECOVER scientists to identify and prioritize products that should be routinely derived from CERP monitoring data or tools to help scientists pro duce such products.
From page 215...
... The SFWMD is well aware that this restriction limits the flexibility of the model with regard to straightforward evaluation of alternative plans and is working for a more flexible means to input operating rules in the next generation of CERP water simulation, namely, the Regional Simulation Model, or RSM (J. Obeysekera, SFWMD, personal communication, 2008)
From page 216...
... SFWMD modelers report that the implementation of CMMI processes within the Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling Department of the SFWMD has brought tremendous value and improvements to the RSM, and future progress depends upon continuing these efforts. Similarly, the Interagency Modeling Center has been instrumental in achieving consistency of modeling efforts across agency boundaries.
From page 217...
... Ecological Modeling Ecological models linking hydrology and water quality to species and ecosystem dynamics have the potential to significantly improve the effectiveness of
From page 218...
... . A spectrum of ­models, ranging from qualitative conceptual models to complex dynamic simulation models, has been developed to link water management to ecological outcomes.
From page 219...
... The committee can only echo previous NRC reports in stating that integrated hydro-ecological modeling has an important role in project planning, monitoring, assessment, and adaptive management. To improve the application of ecological models for the CERP planning and management, the DOI needs to invest more attention and resources in ecological modeling and data management activities at the Interagency Modeling Center.
From page 220...
... Conceptual ecological models that are the foundation of the monitoring and assessment documents have been peer reviewed and published. The information management and data management system and the Interagency Modeling Center are actively developing tools to support the assessment and planning aspects of decision making and assisted in production of the 2007 System Status Report, the first in a series of assessment reports that documents the ecosystem response to implementation of CERP p ­ rojects.
From page 221...
... and the conceptual ecological models, as needed, and for reprioritization of the performance measures. To maximize the usefulness of System Status Reports for adaptive management, RECOVER should develop succinct summaries in future reports that clearly address whether the interim and longer-term goals are being met; if not, why not; and what CERP operations or design changes are most likely to move ecosystem response closer to the interim goals.
From page 222...
... Shrinking CERP resources mean that the trade-off between use of staff for model development versus for model production runs for CERP planning favors the latter. Moreover, if staff numbers are reduced, the knowledge and training of departing professionals go with them.


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