In the Light of Evolution Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction (2008) / Chapter Skim
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14 Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity--T. JONATHAN DAVIES, SUSANNE A. FRITZ, RICHARD GRENYER, C. DAVID L. ORME, JON BIELBY, OLAF R. P. BININDA-EMONDS, MARCEL CARDILLO, KATE E. JONES, JOHN L. GITTLEMAN, GEORGINA M. MACE, and ANDY PURVIS
14 Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity--T. JONATHAN DAVIES, SUSANNE A. FRITZ, RICHARD GRENYER, C. DAVID L. ORME, JON BIELBY, OLAF R. P. BININDA-EMONDS, MARCEL CARDILLO, KATE E. JONES, JOHN L. GITTLEMAN, GEORGINA M. MACE, and ANDY PURVIS
Pages 263-280
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From page 263... ...
We outline * National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, 735 State Street, Santa Barbara, CA 93101; †Division of Biology and ‡Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Population Biology, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot SL5 7PY, United Kingdom; §Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom; AG Systematik und Evolutionsbiologie, Institut für Biologie und Umweltwissenschaften, Carl von Ossietzky University, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany; #Centre for Macroevolution and Macroecology, School of Botany and Zoology, Australian National University, Canberra 0200, Australia; and *
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, a largely complete evaluation of species' extinction risk (Baillie et al., 2004) , a large database of ecological, life history, and geographical information (K.E.J., J.B., A.P., C.D.L.O., S.A.F., Christina Connolly, Amber Teacher, J.L.G., R.G., Elizabeth Boakes, Michael Habib, Janna Rist, Chris Carbone, Christopher A
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pressures that species face, before going on to describe recent and ongoing attempts to understand the present and possible future consequences of those pressures. A SNAPSHOT OF MAMMALIAN BIODIVERSITY Mammalian species are distributed very unevenly among genera, families, and orders (Purvis and Hector, 2000; Wilson and Reeder, 2005)
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FIGURE 1 Species Richness log10 Range Size km2 FIGURE 14.1 Geographic patterns in mammalian biodiversity.
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Areas of ‘‘old'' and ‘‘young'' diversity can be identified from the residuals of a loess regression across cells of total evolutionary history (i.e., total branch length in the phylogeny of a cell's species) on species number.
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(b) Proportion of species with shorter terminal branch lengths than the overall median [phylogeny from Bininda-Emonds et al.
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The main direct human-induced drivers that impact biodiversity now are habitat loss and fragmentation (the most important present threat) , alien invasive species, overutilization, disease, pollution, and climate change (Baillie et al., 2004)
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Human population density predicts proportions of threatened mammal species among continental countries (McKinney, 2001) , supporting the ‘‘firing-line'' model.
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The end-Pleistocene mass extinction of mammals removed mostly large species (Barnosky, Chapter 12, this volume) , and declining mammals are an order of magnitude heavier, on average, than are non threatened species (Cardillo et al., 2005)
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Many facets of geography (including human population density) , ecology, and life history were tested as predictors of extinction risk, by using phylogenetically independent contrasts.
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The models also vary regionally, with life history mattering less in north temperate regions than elsewhere (Cardillo et al., 2008)
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. Given the difficulties in obtaining spatial data on the present intensity of direct drivers, let alone future projections, an alternative is to work with information on indirect drivers -- in particular, human population density and growth and patterns of land conversion.
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A more refined model, perhaps incorporating other drivers, could be combined with projected future driver intensity to predict where a high proportion of species will decline. Such an approach uses the spatial heterogeneity in present driver intensity as a surrogate time series, with high-intensity ecoregions suggesting what will happen elsewhere as conditions deteriorate.
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Bioclimatic envelope models suggest that climate change is already affecting many species including mammals (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003) and may soon be the dominant driver, possibly exacerbated by interactions with invasive species and other threats (Thuiller, 2007)
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by Each Pair of Currencies, According to Greedy Complementarity Searches Extinc- Diversi- Latent Evolutionary Richness EDGE ELEH tions fication Risk History Richness 50 41 22 21 34 15 36 EDGE 50 26 22 33 17 39 ELEH 50 34 18 10 26 Extinctions 50 20 9 21 Diversification 50 16 30 Latent risk 50 16 Evolutionary 50 history
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The distinction between maximizing evolutionary history versus centers of diversification is nontrivial. A network of reserves designed to capture maximal evolutionary history would look very different from one designed to capture rapidly speciating lineages (Table 14.1)
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank Natalie Cooper, Lynsey McInnes, Jim Regetz, Gavin Thomas, and Nicola Toomey for discussion and John Avise and Doug Erwin for comments on the manuscript. This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (U.K.)
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