New Directions in Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment Summary of a Workshop (2009) / Chapter Skim
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2. Climate change predictions are giving greater credence to more severe climate changes, including larger average temperature increases, increased frequency and severity of extreme events, and related impacts.
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It has taken some time for this group to synthesize the wide range of research in the field and to develop clear messages that are easily communicated to the larger IPCC process. However, in the fourth IPCC assessment, integration of Group II's findings in the final synthesis report for policy makers represented significant progress.
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Sustainable development approaches can reduce vulnerability in many instances, but climate change will impede sustainable development, as multiple stresses converge to amplify total impacts. Climate change becomes a multiplier of other threats.
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The additional research needed to fill gaps on important vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation issues requires new funding, organizational structures, and capacity building. RICHARD MOSS Richard Moss suggested that integrated scenario development is one way to facilitate interactions across IPCC working groups and broader research communities.
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Moss also described a recent innovation in the timing and logic of integrated climate change scenario building, moving from sequential to parallel modeling efforts. The standard linear approach starts with socioeconomic variables and the production of emissions scenarios, then models greenhouse gas concentrations, then models climate outcomes (including surface temperatures)
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GARY YOHE Gary Yohe noted that the fourth IPCC assessment report anticipates broad physical impacts on water, ecosystems, food, coastlines, and human
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Risk profiles can organize multiple metrics across multiple scales. The IPCC assessment report also highlights the need for an iterative and evolving portfolio of mitigation and adaptation actions in which decisions are less about how to write perfect climate policy for decades to come and more about how to minimize adjustment costs as future challenges become clearer.
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Appendix D in Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change, Committee on Strategic Advice to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Division of Earth and Life Sciences, National Research Council.
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Climate services might help to provide anticipatory coordination as well as anticipatory technology as a way of improving self-organization. Research is scant on economic and social costs and benefits of adaptation measures involving ecosystem protection, health interventions, and land use.
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In developing countries, there are numerous barriers to regional global environmental change research, including the following: • inadequate government funding for science; • project-based funding by assistance agencies with constantly shifting priorities and no sustained program support; • too few scientists, heavy teaching demands for those in academia, and "brain drain" to other countries; • few "global change" scientists, due to -- few interdisciplinary programs to educate new global change scientists, and -- no career path for global change scientists (though this may be changing) ; • dissonance in frameworks and methods; • poor information technology infrastructure, library resources, and physical infrastructure; • social, economic, and institutional instabilities; and
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, the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change [IHDP] , and the World Climate Research Programme [WCRP]
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