Skip to main content

Currently Skimming:

Summary
Pages 1-7

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 1...
... Military examples of surprise include the English longbow, the Japanese long lance torpedo, the American atomic bomb, stealth technologies, and the Global Positioning System (GPS)
From page 2...
... Promising areas include applications from chaos theory; artificial neural networks; influence diagrams and decision networks; advanced simulations; prediction markets; online social networks; and alternate reality games. 3 Signtific, originally known as the X2 project, is a forecasting system that aims to provide an innovative medium for discussing the future of science and technology.
From page 3...
... The duration of the project is twenty-four months; two reports will be provided. Specifically, the committee will in its first report: • Compare and contrast attributes of technology forecasting methodologies developed to meet similar needs in other venues.
From page 4...
... In a phenomenon that New York Times' reporter John Markoff has dubbed "inversion," many advanced 4 In 2009, the name "X2" was changed to "Signtific: Forecasting Future Disruptions in Science and Technology." 5TechCast is a technology think tank pooling the collective knowledge of technology experts around the world to produce authoritative tech nology forecasts for strategic business decisions. TechCast offers online technology forecasts and publishes articles on emerging technologies.
From page 5...
... BENCHMARKINg A PERSISTENT FORECASTINg SYSTEM After much discussion, the committee agreed on several characteristics of an ideal forecast that could be used to benchmark a persistent forecasting system. The following considerations were identified as important for designing a persistent forecasting system: • Data sources.
From page 6...
... CONCLuSION This is the first of two reports on disruptive technology forecasting. Its goal is to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies, and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology.
From page 7...
... 7 SUMMARY REFERENCES Dalkey, Norman C


This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More information on Chapter Skim is available.