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3 The Nature of Disruptive Technologies
Pages 33-47

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From page 33...
... The new global economy is characterized by increased uncertainty, openness, flexibility, and choices, all of which impact lifestyle, business models, the working environment, the educational system, and national security. The United States is the largest consumer in the world, as well as the largest exporter and importer, and accounts for more than one-quarter of global economic output.
From page 34...
... and global demand for better information hardware, smarter software, and consumer electronics continues to grow, making Asia one of the most vibrant technology regions in the world. As a result of the globalization and outsourcing that have occurred in recent years, several developments have been impacting industrial research and development: • Global access to S&T knowledge, tools, resources, and capabilities, • Shrinking R&D cycle, • Faster product development in response to market demand, • A shorter product development cycle due to global competition, • A shortening product life cycle, • Consolidation of the manufacturing sector, • Globalization of production, and • Global access to technology.
From page 35...
... Leadership is exemplified by Steve Jobs and his ability to transform Apple from a computer company to a technology lifestyle company (see Figure 3-2) .3 From these observations, the committee concluded that a forecaster, when assessing the disruptive influence of a technology, may ask whether the technology does any of the following: • Delivers a capability at a previously unavailable level, which may create disruptive forces; • Combines with other technologies to create synergies, which may also be disruptive; • Evolves from the nexus of seemingly unrelated technologies; • Disrupts a workforce, society, or the economy when combined with multiple existing technologies; • Generates products with new performance attributes that may not previously have been valued by existing end users; • Requires users to significantly change their behavior to take advantage of it; • Changes the usual product and technology paradigms to offer a competitive edge; • Exponentially improves the value received by the user; 2Available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VisiCalc#cite_note-tomcalc-0.
From page 36...
...  PERSISTENT FORECASTING OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES FIGURE 3-1 Screen shot of VisiCalc. SOURCE: Wikipedia.
From page 37...
... Disruption also has a connotation of survivorship. A broad-based disruptive technology can lead to the destruc tion of an old technology, a business model or business vitality, a community, or a country's economy or security.
From page 38...
... The outcome of these events was stunning and the impact phenomenal. Today, it is difficult to imagine the world without personal computers; this is an example of a constructive disruptive technology being carried through the economic conduit and making a significant difference.
From page 39...
... The fundamentals of the Internet, developed in the 1960s, were built on the 1950s disruptive technology of packet switching. Packet switching was first used to create the Advanced Research Projects Agency Network, or ARPANET, built for the U.S.
From page 40...
... A signpost is a recognized and actionable potential future event. Some important signposts for signaling the emergence of a potentially disruptive technology are the following: • The plateauing of any technology in terms of performance, cost, or efficiency; • Emerging applications dependent on a single critical technology, especially those in a very competitive market, which may prompt the development of a disruptive alternate technology as a substitute; • The production by incumbent producers of products and services that rely on sustaining innovations to improve existing technologies (faster, longer lasting, clearer, etc.)
From page 41...
... . When venture capitalists look for potentially disruptive technologies to invest in, they may search for markets that have threats, needs, or demands that could be addressed by novel technologies.
From page 42...
... By associating market pull and capabilities with potential technologies, a forecast should be able to describe the disruption. A good disruptive technology forecast should forecast not only potential technologies but also potential market (or military)
From page 43...
... Examples include research on stem cells and cloning. Similarly, local conditions may create massive market pull and dis proportionately high rates of adoption, luring investment and stimulating innovation by corporations addressing the global marketplace.
From page 44...
... corpora tions, which recognized that while software development required a skilled and educated workforce; it did not need much physical infrastructure. However, while the number of nations able to support sophisticated laboratories for advanced research in, say, biotechnology, nanotechnology, quantum technology, and high-energy research is grow ing, they are limited by the quality of the infrastructure and the availability of financial and human resources.
From page 45...
... Practical Knowledge and Entrepreneurship For researchers in the academic, commercial, and government sectors, two factors are production-worthiness and market fit. Academic researchers need not only master scientific and engineering expertise, but must also embrace market tastes, needs, and demands.
From page 46...
... Approaches to assessing the likelihood of a given technology disruption were also discussed, including the impact of geographic, demographic, cultural, and social factors. Signposts (metrics that can be used to anticipate the development of a disruptive technology)
From page 47...
... 2006. Disruptive technology or visionary leadership?


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