Skip to main content

Currently Skimming:

4 Reducing Forecasting Ignorance and Bias
Pages 48-56

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 48...
... For example, forecasters who rely primarily or exclusively on Western experts and data sources are at a higher risk of producing an unbalanced and biased forecast. Such forecasts can create planning blind spots resulting from cultural mirroring2 and false assumptions.
From page 49...
... . The concept of multiple perspectives is also embedded in many of the forecasting and analytical processes discussed elsewhere in this report or is a guiding principle for them, including scenario planning, stakeholder analysis, and morphological analysis.
From page 50...
... . According to the Aspen Global Change Institute's Elements of Change report, communal ignorance can be overcome through the acquisition of new knowledge achieved "through research, broadly within existing scientific concepts, ideas, and disciplines" (Schneider and Turner, 1995, p.
From page 51...
... Finally, it is extraordinarily difficult to determine cause and effect, or secondary and tertiary level interrelationships and dependencies. While the committee recognizes the inability to precisely model complexity, it does believe that at a minimum several major complex systems should be tracked in order to discover changes in macro effects.
From page 52...
... analysis Communal Surprise occurs because a group of forecasters has An open and transparent platform that includes only similar viewpoints represented or may be less viewpoints, data, and assets from a broader set of willing to consider the views of forecasters outside communities; "vision-widening" exercises such as the community. gaming, scenarios, and workshops; creation of proxies representing extreme perspectives Novelty Surprise occurs because the forecasters are unable to Simulating impacts and gaming alternative future anticipate and prepare for external shocks or internal outcomes of various potential shocks under different changes in preferences, technologies, or institutions.
From page 53...
... • Special incentives may be required to motivate individuals to discuss potential disruptive technologies. • Individuals from diverse cultures may feel more or less comfortable about communicating potential disruptions depending on the means of data gathering.
From page 54...
... When surveying individuals across cultures, it is critical to consider the implications of language choice and make decisions based on input from local people. The committee believes that a disrup tive technology forecasting system should not be limited to English, and participants should be able to express themselves and respond in their native language.
From page 55...
... While some bias may be unavoidable, much of it can be identified and mitigated by developing a broad and inclusive forecasting system. The committee believes that the mitigation of forecasting bias requires periodic audits by internal and external evaluators to ensure the diversity of participants and data sources as well as the robustness of the forecasting process.
From page 56...
... 2006. Disruptive technology or visionary leadership?


This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More information on Chapter Skim is available.