Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies (2010) / Chapter Skim
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1 Need for Persistent Long-Term Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies
1 Need for Persistent Long-Term Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies
Pages 8-16
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From page 8... ...
The sponsor recognizes that many of the disruptive technologies employed by an enemy may originate from nonmilitary applications. With this in mind, the sponsor asked the committee to pay particular attention to those applications and domains in which technical innovations are driven by market demands and opportunities.
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From page 9... ...
This change to the Statement of Task was agreeable to the sponsor. The idea of creating a persistent forecasting system -- that is, a system that is being continually updated and improved -- grew out of the TIGER standing committee's concern that both the defense community and the IC are largely focused on potentially disruptive technologies that are expected in the near future.
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From page 10... ...
New techniques and tools such as backcasting, contextual database searches, social networking analytical tools, interactive online gaming methodologies, alternative reality gaming, predictive markets, expected returns theory, portfolio and venture strategies, and visualization systems could improve signal development and identification. RATIONALE FOR CREATINg A NEW FORECASTINg SYSTEM As the world becomes more interconnected, small changes in one arena can trigger significant disruptions in others.
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From page 11... ...
Instead, such early warnings are needed to prevent technological surprise and to promote adaptive investment flexibility. HOW A DISRuPTIvE TECHNOLOgY DIFFERS FROM AN EMERgINg TECHNOLOgY Disruptive versus Emerging Technologies While the meaning of "emerging technology" is widely understood, that of "disruptive technology" may not be.
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From page 12... ...
Examples of this include semiconductor technologies, which are created in large and expensive manufacturing facilities, and solar cell technologies, which will need massive capital investments to be able to compete with other alternative energy sources such as coal. If the infrastructure does not exist, the technology may be disseminated in isolated locations or communities, but few people will be able to leverage it.
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From page 13... ...
Forecasting Disruptive Technologies The committee offers the following suggestions for the elements of a successful methodology for forecasting disruptive technologies. Different Techniques Are Required Techniques beyond those used to forecast emerging technologies will be required to forecast disruptive tech nologies.
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From page 14... ...
Wild Card Predictions Play an Important Role A persistent forecasting system must look beyond the central mass of potential changes in technology, needs, or market drivers that have a modest to high probability of occurring. The system must identify conjunctions of science, technology, and needs that can drive innovations that might have a low probability of emerging owing to either daunting technical challenges or poor prospects for marketability but that could have a high impact if they were put into practice and adopted.
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From page 15... ...
; a signpost (a recognized and actionable potential future event, e.g., the commercial availability of a battery that simultaneously surpasses gasoline in energy stored per unit of mass, energy stored per unit volume, and the price per unit of energy stored) ; and a signal (a piece of data, sign, or event that is relevant to the identification of a potentially disruptive technology -- for example, Apple, Inc., placing a large order for new touch capacitance screens from a Chinese supplier)
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From page 16... ...
Chapter 2 of this report outlines the history of technology forecasting and describes current forecasting methodologies and approaches; it also helps to further define and provide metrics for a successful forecast. Chapter 3 describes the nature of disrup tive technologies, suggests sectors where disruptive technology is likely to take place, and identifies disciplines of interest for future study.
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