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6 Evaluating Existing Persistent Forecasting Systems
Pages 92-104

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From page 92...
... DELTA SCAN Delta Scan was developed as a tool for the Horizon Scanning Centre as part of the United Kingdom's national persistent forecasting effort. It is the sister system to Sigma Scan, which focuses on public policy and social issues.
From page 93...
... The results of the forecast were published both in a report and on the Horizon Scanning Centre's Web site. They were then were used to test strategic assumptions and to identify contingency trigger points to monitor.
From page 94...
... • Challenge, Insight Econ / Sci / Social / Other • Co -creation Public / Private • Managing authority / credibility Synthesis & QA of outputs • Evolve & promote model Audit of Impacts FIGURE 6-2 Process diagram from the Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre. SOURCE: Woodroof, 2007.
From page 95...
... TECHCAST TechCast is an online research system which acts as a robust tool for pooling knowledge and forecasting tech nology. This system is designed to be highly flexible and can be used to gather expert data from an enterprise, a specific target group, a government, or the general public.
From page 96...
... SOURCE: Halal, 2009. 6-3.eps FIGURE 6-4 Expert survey.
From page 97...
... 97 EVALUATING EXISTING PERSISTENT FORECASTING SYSTEMS FIGURE 6-5 Result of expert survey results. SOURCE: Halal, 2009.
From page 98...
... A typical workshop agenda included the following: headline (theme) , futures of science, geographies of science, signal entry, and breakout.
From page 99...
... 99 EVALUATING EXISTING PERSISTENT FORECASTING SYSTEMS Scenarios, maps, perspectives, reports Big e us Stories gamers , IFTF, outside authors, others etc. to sy ea Trends and emerging patterns n, Forecasts joi platform, workshops to ple sim Interesting or unusual things Signals platform, workshops FIGURE 6-8 X2 content and methodology.
From page 100...
... The philosophy behind the creation of the ARG is to develop engaging scenarios that reflect perspectives generated by game players and that could serve as a foundation for discussion using Web-based social media tools. IFTF felt it was equally important to develop an appropriate community architecture focused on attracting participants and game masters and to clearly communicate the promise of the game to the players.
From page 101...
... 0 EVALUATING EXISTING PERSISTENT FORECASTING SYSTEMS FIGURE 6-10 Expert signal framework of X2. SOURCE: Castro and Crawford, 2008.
From page 102...
... . These projects demonstrate many of the concepts presented in this report and give the com mittee confidence that an open, persistent forecasting platform for disruptive technologies can be created.
From page 103...
... Diversity of unclear. Other processing processing tools (dashboards, community processing data tools (dashboards, data data visualization, signal and link unclear.
From page 104...
... X2 partially meets Partially meets. Delta Scan partially meets the attributes the attributes of the persistent partially meets the attributes of the persistent forecasting forecasting system, with strength of the ideal forecasting system system with strengths in ease in openness, qualitative data with particular strength in the of use and in quantifying the capture, multiple data sources, robustness of the data forecast probability of occurrence, and multiple forecasting methods.


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