Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change (2009) / Chapter Skim
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Such changes are already having adverse impacts on people's well-being, as climate change amplifies the effects of other environmental and socioeconomic changes and problems and produces new effects of its own. The long-lived greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere guarantee that warming will continue, even if emissions are drastically cut today.
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Given this scenario, it is likely going to be a Herculean task to limit climate change to 2°C of warming from preindustrial levels as desired by many governments. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol was an important initial step toward attempting to manage greenhouse gas emissions at the international level.
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climate change research program will play a key role by building knowledge, through sound science and incontrovertible observations, that informs decision making. However, meeting the needs of decision makers requires a transformational change in how climate change research is organized and incorporated into public policy in the United States.
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TOP PRIORITIES The committee's top six priorities, cast as actions for the restructured climate change research program, are listed below. They are presented as a logical flow of actions, although work can begin on all of them simultaneously.
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Sustained, multidecadal observations of physical, biological, and social processes are required to document, understand, and predict climate change at the temporal and spatial scales relevant to federal, state, and local-level stakeholders and partner international programs. Consequently, the current satellite, land, ocean, and atmosphere observations of the climate system need to be continued and augmented.
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Strengthen research on adaptation, mitigation, and vulnerability. Adaptation and mitigation strategies depend on an understanding of climate trends (including improved predictions of future climate change and extreme events)
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Initiate a national assessment process with broad stakeholder participation to determine the risks and costs of climate change impacts on the United States and to evaluate options for responding. A comprehensive national assessment with periodic reporting provides a mechanism to build communication with stakeholder groups and to identify evolving science and societal needs and priorities.
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Although a few pilot efforts are providing selected climate services, a national program to monitor climate trends and issue predictions to support decision makers at multiple levels and in the various sectors has yet to be established. A national climate service should probably reside outside of the future climate change research program for a variety of reasons, including the potential to overwhelm the research program with myriad demands for specialized services.
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Significant new resources would be required for a climate observing system, regional modeling, and user-driven research to support a national climate service. Some new resources could result from entraining additional agencies or agency programs into the restructured climate change research program, or by participating agencies increasing their allocation.
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Since the future costs of climate change are expected to greatly exceed the current cost of the federal program, investing now in climate change research should lead to reduced costs for responding, coping with, and adapting to the consequences of climate change. Not investing is a choice we cannot afford to make.
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