Skip to main content

Currently Skimming:

Appendix E: Research Priorities for Improving Our Understanding of the Natural Climate System and Climate Change
Pages 203-226

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 203...
... is charged to "examine the program elements described in the Climate Change Science Program strategic plan and identify priorities to guide the future evolution of the program in the context of established scientific and societal objectives." These priorities may include "adjustments to the balance of science and applications, shifts in emphasis given to the various scientific themes, and identification of program elements not supported in 203
From page 204...
... priorities. Although an attempt was made to cover the full range of activities needed to facilitate progress in understanding the physical basis of climate change and to support climate-related decision making, this appendix does not attempt to provide a comprehensive review of the priorities listed in other documents (e.g., the recently proposed draft revisions to the CCSP strategic plan)
From page 205...
... A number of documents produced by the National Research Council (NRC) and other groups have attempted to assess progress in different areas of climate change science and to identify the critical research advances needed to further improve our understanding of past, current, and projected future climate changes; the impacts of these changes on both human and natural systems; and the infrastructure, organizational structures, and strategic frameworks needed to promote progress.
From page 206...
... • Can progress be made in the next 5 years given our current basis of understanding and available or potentially available technology and human resources? We divided our 15 priorities into four categories: overarching priorities, which emerged as the most critically important for ensuring continued progress in climate change research; existing priorities from the CCSP's 2003 strategic plan, some of which have resulted in significant progress during the past 5 years while others have seen less; emerging priorities, or areas that have surfaced or increased in importance during the past 5 years; and crosscutting priorities, which involve the infrastructural and organizational frameworks needed to conduct climate research and connect the results to stakeholders.
From page 207...
... , by comparing the most recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) with previous assessments, and also in retrospective reports such as the recently released Scientific Accomplishments of Earth Observations from Space (NRC, 2008)
From page 208...
... Climate observations demand dedicated long-term observational campaigns to evaluate climate variability of different timescales and estimate long-term trends. However, many "climate" observations are (or were)
From page 209...
... In our view, the lack of a national strategy to develop regional climate modeling capabilities is a fundamental shortcoming of the CCSP, and it means that the program has, to date, missed a major opportunity to connect climate change science to the citizenry. Climate change projections from the current generation of global climate models are only reliable on continental-to-global scales, mainly because these models do a poor job of resolving smaller-scale climate variability.
From page 210...
... Given the importance of local-to-regional climate projections to decision makers, the CCSP should, in our view, make improved local and regional climate change prediction and projection a top priority. As with our first overarching priority on observations, regional modeling is a crosscutting effort that would facilitate progress in many of the CCSP goal areas, and it should be noted that these two overarching priorities are complementary and interdependent (e.g., observations are needed for model initialization, assimilation, forcing, and validation)
From page 211...
... research to address major gaps in understanding climate change." Over the past 5 years, significant progress has been made in measuring and characterizing the abundances and radiative impacts of certain kinds of aerosols, for example, the effects of black soot on snow and ice surfaces. However, the radiative forcing associated with aerosols, especially the so-called indirect effect of aerosols on cloud radiative properties, remains the single largest uncertainty in the total global radiative forcing associated with human activities (IPCC, 2007)
From page 212...
... This should, over time, lead to greater realism in global cloud simulations in climate models. Other important feedback processes that may be amenable to progress include ice sheets and the carbon cycle, both of which are discussed below.
From page 213...
... . Continued work on developing global carbon cycle models, and improving the linkages between these and other components in Earth systems models, would also be expected to improve our understanding of the interactions between carbon, ecosystems, agriculture, and hydrology, in addition to allowing better estimates of overall climate sensitivity and improved realism in future climate change projections.
From page 214...
... In our view, a true national assessment of current physical changes in climate and the impact of these changes on ecosystems and human systems, at both the regional and national levels, would also be much more valuable than a series of isolated reports on different topics. Without such an assessment, it is difficult for decision makers to evaluate the vulnerability of any particular region or sector to climate change, an important first step in improving resiliency to climate variability and change; when compounded by the lack of reliable regional model projections of future climate change (see priority 2, above)
From page 215...
... A number of recent studies have suggested that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets may be less stable than previously thought, raising the possibility that global sea level rise could accelerate. For example, the downward percolation of surface meltwater can lubricate ice sheet movement, speeding ice flow, and destabilize floating ice shelves, as illustrated by the dramatic breakup of the Larson B ice shelf in 2002.
From page 216...
... These gaps in understanding make it extremely difficult to place an upper bound on sea level rise during the twenty-first century and beyond. Rapid ice sheet disintegration, and the accompanying sharp increase in sea level rise, is also one of the most alarming potential mechanisms for future abrupt climate change, since even small changes in sea level are expected to have significant impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems around the globe.
From page 217...
... will respond to global warming, and what the implications of these changes are for the skill of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. Such questions are especially important in the context of our second overarching priority above (regional climate modeling)
From page 218...
... states that the plan "presents a strategy for producing climate change projections through two modeling centers, but fails to present a national strategy for the seasonal to interannual climate predictions so important to many stakeholders" and that "without a fundamental change in approach to fully support seasonal to interannual climate prediction, the United States will be unsuccessful in the delivery of climate services." In our view, it is imperative that the next CCSP strategic plan include a strategy for moving toward a seamless and integrated suite of forecasting tools that spans the full range of timescales and modes of variability needed to make accurate predictions and projections. A necessary subelement of the above is a critical assessment of the present predictive skill of seasonal-tointerannual climate forecasts, as well as an evaluation of the potential predictability of the climate system on these and longer timescales.
From page 219...
... A key to the success of GEOSS in the long term will be the sustained use and demand for Earth system observations in support of operational prediction across a broad range of sectors and Earth system components. This priority also has close connections to several of the other priorities suggested in this document, including the two overarching priorities on observations and regional modeling and the emerging priority on nonstationary prediction.
From page 220...
... For example, regional climate modeling, climate reanalyses, and Earth system modeling have all been constrained by the lack of access to petascale computing, despite the current CCSP strategic plan (CCSP, 2003) listing "development of state-of-the-art climate modeling" as a CCSP priority.
From page 221...
... As a result of the progress made to date within the CCSP and its predecessor USGCRP, the nation is poised to benefit in a routine manner from the transition from basic research to applied research to the provision of climate services -- a mechanism to connect climate science to decision-relevant questions and support building capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate fluctuations (Miles et al., 2006)
From page 222...
... Integrated assessment, our final crosscutting priority area, refers to the integrated analysis and modeling of the human activities and natural processes that give rise to greenhouse gas emissions and other climate forcings, the changes in the climate system caused by these forcings, the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of both human systems and natural systems to these changes in climate, and the estimated costs, benefits, and limitations of various mitigation and adaptation measures (e.g., Parson and Fisher-Vanden, 1995)
From page 223...
... Rose, and T.J. Wilbanks, eds., Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2, Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Asheville, NC, 242 pp.
From page 224...
... Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 85 pp. NRC, 2003c, Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 166 pp.
From page 225...
... NRC, 2007d, Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 170 pp.


This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More information on Chapter Skim is available.