Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change (2009) / Chapter Skim
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2 Restructuring the Climate Change Science Program
2 Restructuring the Climate Change Science Program
Pages 21-84
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This global warming has been occurring over the past century, but has greatly accelerated in the past few decades, driven by the addition of greenhouse gases, especially CO2, to the atmosphere at an ever increasing rate. A warming in excess of 3ºC is possible (cf., Figure 2.1)
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(2008) , are not shown, but are 0.5°C to 2°C for the melting of Arctic summer sea ice; 1°C to 2°C for radical shrinkage of the Greenland Ice Sheet and 3°C to 5°C for shrinkage of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet; 3°C to 4°C for the dieback of the Amazon rain forest due to drastic reductions in precipitation; 3°C to 6°C for persistent El Niño conditions; and 3°C to 5°C for a shutoff in the North Atlantic deep water formation and the associated thermohaline circulation.
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This chapter provides seven examples of societal issues that motivate the need for an integrated approach to the research program. Two are current issues stemming from changes in the climate system (weather and climate extremes, sea level rise and melting ice)
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How society deals with extreme weather events today provides an analog for understanding our vulnerability to hazard in a changing climate (Adger et al., 2003)
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Over the past few decades, the number of heat waves and warm nights has increased in the inhabited continents, while cold days, cold nights, and days with frost have become rarer (Figure 2.2)
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26 RESTRUCTURING FEDERAL CLIMATE RESEARCH FIGURE 2.2 Observed trends (days per decade) for 1951 to 2003 in the frequency of extreme temperatures, defined on the basis of 1961 to 1990 values, as maps for the 10th percentile, (a)
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. Climate models project these storms to be more frequent over the next century, with stronger winds and higher waves (Meehl et al., 2007)
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28 RESTRUCTURING FEDERAL CLIMATE RESEARCH FIGURE 2.3 (Top) Spatial pattern of drought for 1900 to 2002, as represented by the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
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. Other changes in the climate system (e.g., higher sea level)
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coastal regions may be vulnerable to potential increases in hazard related to future climate change. The category 3 storm, which hit New Orleans in August 2005, caused $81 billion in total damage and $40.6 billion in insured losses.
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RESTRUCTURING THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM 31 FIGURE People's ability to flee or to recover from the negative impacts of Hurricane Katrina revealed the many social, physical, structural, and political dimensions of extreme weather or climate events.
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that have limited capacities for responding to climate change. The results are key inputs to adaptation research that addresses social justice and environmental equity concerns Given high uncertainties regarding climate impacts, it may make sense to focus more on building adaptive capacity than on developing specific adaptation options for different types of extreme events (Pielke, 2007)
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Particular requirements to further improve our understanding and detection of changes in weather and climate extremes include the following (Easterling et al., 2008) : • Research on how to quantify uncertainty in homogeneityadjusted climate datasets, and the best adjustment methods • Continued development and maintenance of high-quality climate observing systems that adhere to the GCOS climate monitoring principles (e.g., U.S.
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, primarily as a result of expansion of warming seawater and discharge of ice from alpine glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to the oceans. Although the rate of sea level rise varies on decadal scales, over this observational period global sea level exhibited an acceleration of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm yr-2 (95 percent confidence; Church and White, 2006)
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. Coastal and near-shore ecosystems such as coral reefs, mangroves, and sea grass communities as well as the coastal fisheries they support are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and increased storm surges.
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Sea level rise will have a greater impact in areas that are subsiding or that have gently sloping shorelines. The mid-Atlantic coast of the United States is an excellent example of a region with high potential for enhanced damage due to storm surges associated with extreme weather events (hurricanes, nor'easters; Najjar et al., 2000)
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SOURCE: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/ tipping_points_hiresmulti_prt.htm. The light blue areas in the bottom figure depict low-lying areas within the San Francisco Bay area, California, based on U.S.
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Repeat SAR images make it possible to estimate the volume of ice discharge per unit time. Realistic projections of sea level rise demand
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, or coastal protection strategies that factor in sea level rise and climate change, such as those planned in the Netherlands.5 FRESHWATER AVAILABILITY Climate change poses a grave threat to the availability of freshwater in the United States and around the world. Large populations concentrated in cities and suburbs as well as our entire agricultural base are dependent on, and accustomed to, safe, reliable sources of freshwater.
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. Both supply and demand are expected to be affected by a changing climate.
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. Changes in spatial gradients of sea surface temperatures, due to natural or anthropogenic forcing, also have a major influence on continental precipitation (Box 2.3)
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In particular, warmer temperatures in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and a combination of coolerthan-normal North Atlantic temperatures and warmer-than-normal South Atlantic temperatures are emerging as the dominant factors. Greenhouse warming can account for the warmer Indo-Pacific warm pool temperatures and aerosol cooling can account for the cooler-than-normal North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
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RESTRUCTURING THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM 43 40 to 60 percent decrease in rainfall by 2100 and the other predicting a 20 percent increase! FIGURE Observed precipitation trends from 1950 to 1999.
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Both models were forced with estimated greenhouse gas and aerosol changes through 1999 and with the SRES A1B emissions scenario (IPCC, 2007b) thereafter.
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Coupled with temperature and radiation changes at the land surface, such direct and indirect effects make prediction of critical resources such as the depth of seasonal snowpack in the Rockies difficult. Similarly, for areas dependent on groundwater aquifers, recharge is sensitive not just to total precipitation, but also to changes in storm climatology (intensity, duration, and intermittency of storms, all of which change with climate warming)
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The large uncertainties highlight the need for future investments in observations, models, and process understanding. However, current climate information can be used to support decisions on water resources at a variety of geographic scales, even at the current skill levels of hydrological forecasts (Beller-Simms et al., 2008)
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The Southeast has experienced significant population growth, but has not invested in the major interregional water infrastructure and institutional arrangements that might have allowed it to respond to drought. Although decreasing rainfall was well monitored by state climatologists, the impacts to agriculture, fisheries, and municipal water supplies may have been made worse because the involved states (Georgia, Alabama, and Florida)
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Research Needs Specific research needs include the following: • Prediction of changes in water supply (runoff, groundwater, snowpack) and the reliability of the water supply, which requires improvements in decadal modeling, regional modeling, and understanding and modeling of the land surface hydrological sensitivity to climate change (Graham et al., 2007)
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. Precipitation measurements over land and the oceans are critical for both basic climate science and water resources applications and would be made by the Global Precipitation Mission, recently given high priority in the Decadal Survey.
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. Understanding and predicting regional climate trends and their impact on agriculture and the national food supply is a high priority for governments.9 Climate change affects both commercial farming, which is often an integral part of national economies, and subsistence farming, which is common in developing countries and determines the livelihood of millions of people.
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FIGURE Dead trees and cracked earth on a farm near Kerang, a district in the Murray Darling Basin about 360 km north of Melbourne, August 24, 2007. SOURCE: REUTERS/Tim Wimborne.
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. In its Fourth Assessment report, the IPCC noted that the large majority of climate models predict a decrease in precipitation in the subtropics by the end of the century and an increase in precipitation extremes in southern and eastern Asia, east Australia, and northern Europe (IPCC, 2007c, Chapter 5)
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. Research Needs Basic and applied research, supported by modeling, field studies, and satellite observations, are needed to provide an improved understanding of global agricultural land use, productivity, and food supply in the context of a changing climate.
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Global and Regional Integrated Monitoring and Modeling of Agricultural Land Use and Associated Mitigation and Adaptation Options A new generation of integrated dynamic Earth system models that incorporate both physical and socioeconomic factors is needed to better project changes in regional food supply and demand resulting from a changing climate and to inform mitigation and adaptation options (Howden et al., 2007; Ingram et al., 2008)
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and improved land surface observations.10 Continuous satellite measurements, such as following the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite, are needed for monitoring agriculture. Long-term moderate resolution (i.e., Landsat class)
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, alteration and fragmentation of habitat, and modifications of the energy, nutrient, and water cycles. Modern ecosystems are also responding to observed climate changes, as recorded by changes in the timing of phenological events (e.g., leaf-out, flowering)
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Sea level rise, which changes the intensity of coastal storms and coastal erosion regimes, will also negatively affect coral reef structures. In heavily populated regions where most coral decline is observed, existing stresses weaken the ability of coral reefs to adapt to climate change.
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, which in turn affect reefs and how they are managed. Climate change will affect ecosystems through a number of mechanisms, such as by altering patterns of temperature, rainfall, ocean stratification, upwelling, and mortality rates caused by extreme events, such as storms, fires, and coastal hypoxia (Box 2.7)
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Some of these mechanisms may amplify or dampen climate change through altered surface energy balance and/or greenhouse gas emissions. Management strategies that involve manipulation of ecosystems to mitigate climate change (e.g., sequestering carbon by planting trees, managing forests, or fertilizing the oceans)
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Although not the direct cause of coastal hypoxia, climate change affects environmental conditions that can affect the extent and/or likelihood of dead zones. For example, projected increases in rainfall will increase river discharge, nutrient delivery, and stratification (via freshwater influx)
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Understanding the occurrence and extent of dead zones requires research on the complex interactions between land use, coastal ecosystems, environmental conditions, and climate change. Such knowledge is needed to develop strategies to minimize and mitigate the effect of these events.
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Considering climate change in decisions on federal land management poses both scientific and regulatory challenges (Julius et al., 2008) , including the ability of current regulatory frameworks such as the Endangered Species Act (ESA)
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Options for ecosystem adaptation could include changes to the existing regulatory framework to incorporate climate change into species recovery planning and to focus funds available for recovery plan implementation on strategies that provide resiliency. Policy decisions such as this -- how to amend current legislation or to create a new legal or administrative regulatory framework for including climate change in key legislation -- will frame needs for future scientific research on key species and ecosystems and their responses to climate change.
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. Specific research needs include the following: • Assessment of key vulnerabilities of ecosystems to climate and other human stresses, including the compound effects of multiple stresses and the potential impacts of extreme or abrupt events (e.g., heat waves, extended drought, increased severe weather or flooding, changes in sea ice extent, changes in ocean circulation)
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. • The valuation of ecosystem services, including the economic and other costs associated with impacts of climate and other environmental changes.
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Finally, tools are needed to inform adaptive management strategies and estimate the resilience of various ecosystems under scenarios of climate, nutrient, water, and human systems change. HUMAN HEALTH Climate change has been called the greatest regressive tax in history, with the populations imposing the least stress through their greenhouse gas emissions experiencing the greatest health impact and vice versa (Figure 2.7)
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Systemic impacts through shifts in food supplies, refugee patterns, coastal and agricultural livelihoods, and society's responses to climate change, such as geoengineering, carbon taxes, and biofuel production 4. Low-probability high-consequence impacts, such as extremely rapid climate change or sea level rise 5.
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Heat waves are expected to become more intense, more frequent, and to last longer (IPCC, 2007b, Chapter 10)
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Such heat waves are likely to increase with climate change and to further stress public health systems in a number of countries. FIGURE Differences in daytime land surface temperatures in Europe in 2003 from temperatures measured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004.
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Concentrations of ground-level ozone associated with climate change are increasing in many regions and are implicated in pneumonia, asthma, other respiratory diseases, and premature mortality. Concentrations of other air pollutants, particularly fine particulate matter, may increase in response to climate change.
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The linkage is not straightforward, however, as malnutrition is also influenced by economic, social, and governmental factors, which vary in time and space. Similarly, shifts in refugee and other migration patterns due to sea level rise, persistent droughts, changes in agriculture, and other climate-related stressors are significantly mitigated or enhanced by specific social, economic, political, security, and geographic circumstances.
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environmental risks and energy demand • The relationship between food prices, greenhouse gas emissions, and the health impacts of dietary choices • The effects of alternative land use practices (e.g., reforestation, cultivation of biofuel plants) on human welfare and disease • How changes in the use of contraception may affect health, population, and resource consumption Showing which greenhouse mitigation efforts can yield shortterm health and other benefits, even if they are intended primarily for protection from climate changes decades in the future, would improve the attractiveness and political viability of these investments.
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High-priority research and health impact assessment activities include: • The readiness of the nation to predict and avoid public and occupational health problems caused by heat waves and severe storms • The potential U.S. health threats from changes in the pattern of disease vectors, such as birds, rodents, and mosquitoes under different scenarios of climate-induced ecosystem change • Characterization and quantification of relationships between climate variability (trends or fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, or other weather parameters)
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Of particular difficulty and importance are hybrid models or protocols that effectively bring these two types of assessments into a common framework. IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY OF THE UNITED STATES The Kyoto Protocol set binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European Community to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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The damage and disruption that accompanies hurricanes and other severe weather events will be magnified by a rise in sea level. Nearly every sector of the economy as well as the welfare of individuals will be affected in some way by climate change.
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An integrated assessment model captures in a compact fashion how the climate evolves in response to emissions, how the changed climate impacts economic activity in the world, and how those impacts in turn are combined with mitigation costs to affect policy and the evolution of the economy. Integrated assessment models differ in the level of detail on climate and/or the economy and in the level of closed feedback between climate evolution and economic evolution.
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, a result roundly criticized by peer reviewers.13 A recent comparison of economic models found that the cost of controlling an extra ton of carbon in 2025, assuming policies to limit greenhouse gas concentrations to double preindustrial levels, ranged from $2.8 per ton to $482 per ton (Weyant et al., 2006)
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78 RESTRUCTURING FEDERAL CLIMATE RESEARCH whereas sulfur is a contaminant that can be removed. Therefore, it is important to develop a better understanding of the determinants of behavioral change and technological innovation.
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. As of January 2009, none have passed, in part because of questions about how much reducing greenhouse gas emissions will cost and what will happen to energy prices as a result.
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The net impact of a given climate change scenario can therefore be quite ambiguous. There is some evidence that substantial damages from climate change may be associated with extreme weather events, but such events (by definition)
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The distribution of net benefits and costs from controlling greenhouse gas emissions or from the impacts of climate change and adaptation also has ramifications for environmental justice. For instance, with a capand-trade system covering the entire U.S.
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The nation must prepare itself for the possibility of warming in excess of 3°C by the end of the century, followed by the disappearance of most alpine glaciers, the rapid disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and a rise of sea level of up to several meters (cf., Figure 2.1)
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The societal issues discussed above provide a framework for human dimensions research. But given the historic emphasis of the program on the natural sciences, a focused effort on key aspects of the human dimensions is also needed to speed progress and further develop the research priorities.
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