Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change (2009) / Chapter Skim
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3 Future Priorities
3 Future Priorities
Pages 85-122
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This chapter discusses these priorities in the context of the major roles of a federal climate change research program (Box 3.1)
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Support coordinated U.S. participation in international climate science initiatives, including global observation networks and international assessments 5.
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Below, we focus on only one aspect of this latter issue -- climate services -- which is under active discussion in Congress and by the CCSP agencies. CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA Observations are the foundation of climate change research programs.
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At the earliest opportunity, the restructured climate change research program should set the requirements for a U.S.-operated climate observing system and work with participating agencies (federal, state, local, and international) to establish and maintain the system.
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A decadal survey process focused on societal issues could be a useful way for the restructured climate change research program to identify climate observation priorities for (1) in situ land and ocean
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TABLE 3.1 Satellite Measurements Recommended in the Decadal Survey Cost Agency Mission Description ($M) a 2010–2013 NASA Solar and Earth radiation; spectrally resolved 200 forcing and response of the climate system Soil moisture and freeze-thaw for weather and 300 water-cycle processes Ice sheet height changes for climate change 300 diagnosis Surface and ice sheet deformation for under- 700 standing natural hazards and climate; vegetation structure for ecosystem health NOAA Solar and Earth radiation characteristics for 65 understanding climate forcing High-accuracy, all-weather temperature, water 150 vapor, and electron density profiles for weather, climate, and space weather 2013–2016 NASA Land surface composition for agriculture and 300 mineral characterization; vegetation types for ecosystem health Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO2 column 400 integrals for climate emissions Ocean, lake, and river water levels for ocean 450 and inland water dynamics Atmospheric gas columns for air quality fore- 550 casts; ocean color for coastal ecosystem health and climate emissions Aerosol and cloud profiles for climate and wa- 800 ter cycle; ocean color for open ocean biogeochemistry NOAA Sea-surface wind vectors for weather and 350 ocean ecosystems
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SOURCE: NRC (2007b) Human Dimensions Observations The shortage of reliable and consistent data on the interactions between climate, humans, and environmental systems limits our ability to understand how humans affect climate and vice versa, and hence to design policy responses to climate change.
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. To be most useful for climate research, human dimensions data must be better organized and available at different scales of aggregation, including data from surveys and case-study libraries.
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Since they are primarily produced by operational forecasting centers, which are less concerned with long-term data consistency, many changes are made to both the models and the assimilation systems over time. These changes produce spurious "climate changes" in the analysis fields, which obscure the signals of true short-term climate changes or interannual climate variability.
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Recommendation. A restructured climate change research program should sustain production of atmosphere and ocean reanalyses, further develop and support research on coupled data assimilation techniques (e.g., for the land surface)
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. Improved predictions of climate change at regional and local scales should help a restructured climate change research program to bridge the gap between science and decision making.
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The restructured climate change research program should develop and implement a strategy to improve modeling of regional climate change. Improved predictions of climate change at regional and local scales will require (1)
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and socioeconomic factors (blue boxes) interact in the context of climate change to affect food security.
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In particular, such integrated models should be used to improve the characterization of the end-to-end uncertainty in projected climate changes and impacts at regional and local levels. HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH The biggest shift in emphasis for the restructured climate change research program is to give considerably more attention to the human dimensions of climate change, a research element of both the CCSP and its predecessor U.S.
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Until these variables can be represented realistically, the models will be insufficient and incomplete. Research on the human drivers of climate change seeks to understand how humans affect rates of greenhouse gas emissions through population growth, migration, behavior, technological change, land use, or consumption (e.g., NRC, 1997, 1999c, 2005a; Kates, 2000)
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Studies of vulnerability and adaptation focus on the material conditions, values, institutions, governance, and politics that shape individuals' and organizations' vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) , adaptive capacity, and adaptation options and barriers, and their ability to cope with and recover from the impacts of climate change.
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. Mitigation refers to purposeful efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or enhance greenhouse gas sinks.
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Over time, these initiatives would help address societal concerns of direct relevance to the program and provide a concrete focus for collecting human dimensions data and growing the research community. DECISION SUPPORT A key provision of the U.S.
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to support actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change, inform the program and its researchers about stakeholder priorities, and possibly provide opportunities for leveraging research funding (e.g., California climate research; see Box 3.3)
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The California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research program, funded at $83.5 million per year, supports climate monitoring, analysis, and modeling; improvement of greenhouse gas inventory methods; options to reduce greenhouse emissions; and impacts and adaptation. Work on the latter has included downscaling results of global climate models and developing sector-specific information on impacts at state or regional scales for state agencies to used in adaptation plans required by a governor's executive order.a ________ SOURCES: Hanemann (2008)
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. An NRC report lays out a comprehensive framework for organizing climate-related decision support activities, including principles for effective decision support, provision of climate services, and research needed to support the services (Box 3.4; NRC, 2009)
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Seek institutional stability for longevity and effectiveness 6. Design for learning from experience, flexibility, and adaptability Components of a National Climate Decision Support Initiative: 1.
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Climate and decision support research, as well as climate models, observations, and assessments provide the underpinning for climate services, and the demand for services in turn will influence the direction of the climate change research program. Climate services are not currently part of the CCSP, with the exception of pilot efforts (e.g., RISA programs)
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comprise decision support. Two-way interaction with stakeholders occurs primarily through climate services but also through user-driven research and the national assessment.
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The restructured climate change research program provides a framework to coordinate federal efforts to provide climate services to meet the climate information needs of policy and decision makers concerned with impacts, mitigation, and adaptation to climate change at federal, state, and local levels. The services should be led by a single agency but have broad participation from other federal agencies.
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national assessment involves undertaking targeted research and creating new datasets and model runs at the regional scale, tailored to address U.S. national issues and concerns.
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The restructured climate change research program should immediately begin planning a national assessment on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation; consulting with stakeholders on the focus, content, and approach; establishing a strategy and schedule for implementation; securing the necessary financial and institutional commitments; and developing the regional climate projections, datasets, and models that will be used. Depending on the focus, the program may also need to build the scientific capability and human capacity in some areas (e.g., see "Earth System Modeling" and "Decision Support," above)
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INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS Climate change is a global phenomenon, and a number of countries are investing in climate research, observations, and mitigation and participating in international climate programs. The participation of U.S.
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8 Note: CEOS = Committee on Earth Observation Satellites; GOOS = Global Ocean Observing System; GTOS = Global Terrestrial Observing System; IAI = Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research; IGBP = International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme; IHDP = International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change; START = Global Change System for Analysis, Research, and Training; WCRP = World Climate Research Programme; WHO = World Health Organization.
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. Nongovernmental organizations with international programs are already developing climate change initiatives in these areas.10 CCSP research on impacts and adaptation approaches could help guide U.S.
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participation in climate-related efforts of international programs, and in developing and implementing a shared agenda of climate observations, research, and applications. TOP PRIORITIES AND BUDGET IMPLICATIONS The committee's top priorities, cast as actions for a restructured climate change research program to better meet national needs, are as follows: • Reorganize the program around integrated scientificsocietal issues to facilitate crosscutting research focused on understanding the interactions among the climate, human, and environmental systems and on supporting societal responses to climate change.
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Although the design of a national climate service is still under discussion, a restructured climate change research program could begin laying the foundation by identifying the roles of the various federal agencies and increasing emphasis on user-driven research. All six of these actions are necessary for building a program that supports both research and action.
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Budget Implications Each of these initiatives would expand the scope of a restructured climate change research program, with varying budget implications. Organizational and planning activities are typically carried out using CCSP Office funding (currently nearly $2 million annually)
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, it was not possible to identify the successful programs that are nearing completion that could be replaced by new research initiatives. Substantial new investment is required to implement the other major initiatives proposed in this report, including regional modeling, a climate observing system, and climate services.
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• The need for multiple agencies to coordinate activities poses a high administrative burden in the form of additional meetings and reporting. This burden is increased by the need for the same agencies to coordinate activities with related programs, such as a national climate service (if developed outside the program)
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The relevant programs are small compared to natural science programs and scattered around different agencies. This makes it difficult for human dimensions program managers to take a strong leadership role in the CCSP, which in turn makes it difficult to move the CCSP in new directions.
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Building the human dimensions research community will be important not only for the research component of the future climate change research program, but also for climate services and a national assessment of climate impacts and adaptation options. The latter has the potential to overburden a small community that is already participating in the IPCC assessments.
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To ensure that this shift also succeeds in producing information that decision makers need, stronger connections will have to be forged with major groups of stakeholders (e.g., water resource and land managers, policy makers) , who can contribute data to support research objectives, guide the development of a national assessment and a national climate service, and benefit from the results.
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