Electricity from Renewable Resources Status, Prospects, and Impediments (2010) / Chapter Skim
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As a result of its study, the panel found that technologies for generation of electricity from renewable resources represent a significant opportunitywith attendant challengesto provide low carbon dioxide (CO2) –emitting electricity generation from resources available domestically and to generate new economic
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However, non-hydroelectric renewable resources still provide only a small percentage of total U.S. electricity generation (about 2.5 percent of all electricity generated)
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Generation of elec tricity from most renewable resources also reduces vulnerability to increases in the cost of fuels and mitigates many environmental impacts, such as those associated with atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases and emissions of regulated air pollutants. Further, distributed renewable electricity generation located at or near the point of energy use, such as solar photovoltaic systems installed at residential, commercial, or industrial sites, can offer operational and economic benefits while increasing the robustness of the electricity system as a whole.
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In the period from 2020 to 2035, it is reasonable to envision that contin ued and even further accelerated deployment could potentially result in non hydroelectric renewables providing, collectively, 20 percent or more of domestic electricity generation by 2035. In the third timeframe, beyond 2035, continued development of renewable electricity technologies could potentially provide lower costs and result in further increases in the percentage of renewable electricity generated from renewable resources.
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Resource Base Solar and wind renewable resources offer significantly larger total energy and electricity potential than do other domestic renewable resources. Although solar intensity varies across the nation, the land-based solar resource provides a yearly average of more than 5 × 1022 J (13.9 million TWh)
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Despite short-term increases in cost over the past couple of years, in particular for wind turbines and solar photovoltaics, there have been substantial long-term decreases in the costs of these technologies, and recent cost increases due to manufacturing and materials shortages will be reduced if sustained growth in renewable sources spurs increased investment in them. In addition, support for basic and applied research is needed to drive continued tech nological advances and cost reductions for all renewable electricity technologies.
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Unlike some conventional energy resources, renewable electricity is considered manufactured energy, meaning that the largest proportion of costs, external energy, and materials inputs, as well as environmental impacts, occur during manufacturing and deployment rather than during operation. In general, the use of renewable resources for electricity generation involves trading the risks of future cost increases for fossil fuels and uncertainties over future costs of carbon controls for present fixed capital costs that typically are higher for use of renewable resources than for use of fossil fuels.
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Comparisons between past forecasts of renewable electricity penetration and actual data show that, while renewable technologies generally have met forecasts of cost reductions, they have fallen short of deployment projections. Further, the profitability and penetration of electricity generated from renewable resources may be sensitive to investments in energy efficiency, especially if efficiency improvements are sufficient to meet growth in the demand for electricity or lower the market-clearing price of electricity.
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Land-use impacts have caused, and will in the future cause, instances of local opposition to the siting of renewable electricity-generating facilities and associated transmission lines. State and local government entities typically have primary jurisdiction over the local deployment of electricity generation, transmission, and distribution facilities.
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Integration of the intermittent characteristics of wind and solar power into the electricity system is critical for large-scale deployment of renewable electricity. Advanced storage technologies will play an important role in supporting the wide spread deployment of intermittent renewable electric power above approximately 20 percent of electricity generation, although electricity storage is not necessary below 20 percent.
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Scale of Deployment An understanding of the scale of deployment necessary for renewable resources to make a material contribution to U.S. electricity generation is critical to assessing the potential for renewable electricity generation.
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FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY Currently, use of renewable resources for electricity generation generally incurs higher direct costs than those currently seen for fossil-based electricity generation, whose price does not now include the costs associated with carbon emissions and other unpriced externalities. Some form of market intervention or combination of incentives is thus required to enable renewable resources to contribute sub stantially to the national electrical energy generation mix.
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TechnologiesThe prospects for reducing manufacturing costs and • improving the efficiencies of renewable electricity technologies, includ ing the potential for solar photovoltaics to bring the installed system cost down to less than $1 per watt with at least 10 percent module and system efficiency to enable widespread deployment without subsidies; EconomicsThe price of electricity in the future, how prices will be • structured, and the explicit or implicit price of CO2 imposed by any future climate policy; PolicyThe structure of renewables portfolio standards, tax policies • (production and/or investment tax credits) , and other policy initiatives directed at renewable electricity;
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Nevertheless, the promise of renewable resources is that they offer signifi cant potential for low-carbon generation of electricity from domestic sources of energy that are much less vulnerable to fuel cost increases than are other electric ity sources. Overall success depends on having technology, capital, and policy working together to enable renewable electricity technologies to become a major contributor to America's energy future.
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