Electricity from Renewable Resources Status, Prospects, and Impediments (2010) / Chapter Skim
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7 Scenarios
7 Scenarios
Pages 291-326
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From page 291... ...
To come to conclu sions about the level that renewables might contribute to electricity generation, we focus on scenarios of the technologic, economic, environmental, and implementation-related characteristics that may enable a greater fraction of renewable electricity. How much these factors might affect the market penetra tion of any individual renewable resource would depend on the rate at which generation from additional renewables is introduced.
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From page 292... ...
. The scenarios described here are used to assess issues such as: • Land-use impacts, manufacturing and employment requirements, and economic costs associated with an assumed market penetration of a single renewable resource (e.g., 20 percent electricity generation from wind power or more than 50 percent electricity generation from solar)
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From page 293... ...
ExAMPLES OF HIGH-PENETRATION SCENARIOS 20 Percent National Wind Penetration Scenario The American Wind Energy Association and DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a scenario assuming that 20 percent of electricity generation would come from wind power by 2030 (DOE, 2008)
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Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review, it was subjected to interagency peer review. Manufacturing, Materials, and Resources Manufacturing and other requirements to implement a 20 percent wind scenario are significant.
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. The average number of turbines TABLE 7.1 Raw Materials Requirements for 20 Percent Wind Scenario (thousands of tons per year)
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over the no-new-wind case. Table 7.2 shows the break down of direct electricity sector costs for the 20 percent wind scenario and the no-new-wind scenario.
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From page 297... ...
Studies of wind integration at the utility and state level show that incorporating significant amounts of wind power into the electricity grid, while feasible, would require improvements in the transmission grid, wind forecasting, and other modifications to the electricity system, which would impose additional costs (Zavadil et al., 2004; GE Energy, 2005; DeMeo et al., 2005; UWIG, 2006; Parsons, 2006)
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From page 298... ...
Environmental and Energy Impacts The 20 percent wind power scenario would cause significant land-use and atmo spheric emissions impacts. The estimated land area needed to realize this scenario would be 50,000 km2, which includes the land used directly for the turbines and other land requirements.
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From page 299... ...
The impact on the energy mix would be largest for natural gas, with the 20 percent wind scenario displacing about 50 percent of electric utility natural gas consumption compared to 18 percent of coal consumption in 2030 (DOE, 2008)
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From page 300... ...
Realizing the scenarios would entail substantial economic activity, including the addition of thousands of new manufacturing and construction jobs in the wind industry, and would provide significant carbon reductions. DOE's 20 percent wind study estimated a reduced demand for natural gas for electricity generation, though 20 percent wind would increase the need for the use of high-cost combustion
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From page 301... ...
There are sufficient resources, technologies, and generally positive economics to increase wind power's contribution to the electricity sector. What these 20 percent wind penetration scenarios emphasize are the scale of the challenges and the benefits for the future.
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From page 302... ...
The electric TABLE 7.4 Annual Installations, System Costs, and Performance for Solar America Initiative High-Penetration and Photovoltaics Roadmap Scenarios 2015 2030 2050 Annual installed capacity SAI high (GW) 2.74 10.4 n/a PV Roadmap (GW)
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From page 303... ...
Distributed PV is also easier to site and eliminates land-use impacts. Because available solar energy tends to peak in the afternoon, solar PV delivers electricity directly to residences and businesses close to the time of peak electricity demand.
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. As with wind power, the impact on NOx and SO2 emissions would be less than what would come from replacing fossil fuels with solar PV for the generation of electricity, because of cap and trade policies.
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From page 305... ...
transmission system and compressed air storage facilities distributed throughout the country to enable solar electricity to provide baseload capabilities nationally. It assumed that system costs for thin-film cadmium telluride would fall to $1.20/Wp and that efficiencies would increase to 14 percent.
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From page 306... ...
. The report estimated that to reach these levels of market penetration would require investment of $26–33 billion per year with a total cost of $450–560 bil 2The total electricity generation estimate was derived from the EIA base case AEO 2008 and has been reduced by what the authors assumed would occur from energy efficiency improve ments from the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.
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From page 307... ...
Summary The 10 percent solar scenario would result in a dramatic increase in solar's contri bution to electricity generation that would require aggressive growth rates (annual average growth rates of 30 percent and greater) lasting for almost two decades.
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From page 308... ...
in investment in manu facturing and installation capacity to meet this target. The 10 percent solar scenario would also require a much greater involvement of electric utilities in using solar electricity capacity, improvements to the electricity grid to integrate intermittent distributed electricity generation, and national standards for solar interconnections to allow solar to become a "plug-and-play" technology (Pernick and Wilder, 2008)
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From page 309... ...
Scenarios 0 12.9 San Francisco 39.8 Kauai 20.2 Boston 13.2 Baltimore Delaware 15.4 7.5 Phoenix 12.7 Santa Monica New Haven 18.3 Long Island 16.0 New York City 19.5 Reno 11.7 Las Vegas 9.5 San Diego 16.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 2007 (Cents per Kilowatt-hour) 15.4 San Francisco 50.4 Kauai 25.5 Boston 16.7 Baltimore 19.5 Delaware 9.5 Phoenix Santa Monica 16.1 New Haven 23.2 Long Island 20.3 New York City 24.7 Reno 14.8 Las Vegas 12.1 San Diego 20.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2015 (Cents per Kilowatt-hour)
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From page 310... ...
Considering an array of renewables also might ease their integration into the electricity system, particularly for wind generation. Obtain ing 20 percent of electricity generation from wind power as a single source will be a challenge, in that the 20 percent refers to an annual average, and wind power is intermittent.
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From page 311... ...
This set is merely one mix that could be considered, given the available resource base, readiness of renewable electricity technologies, and what might be practicable for an aggressive but achievable expansion of market penetration. SCENARIOS COUPLING RENEWABLES TO ENERGY MARKETS THROUGH CARBON POLICIES Another set of scenarios examines how renewables interact with other sources of electricity, other sources of energy, and end-use energy demands.
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Imposing costs for carbon from greenhouse gas emis sions made fossil-fuel generation increasingly less competitive compared to non carbon-based energy sources and technologies that use fossil fuels along with CO2 capture and storage. Carbon prices also induced energy efficiency improvements and reductions in demand.
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The IGSM model postulates less renewable energy supply than in the MiniCAM model in both the reference and climate-constrained scenarios for a variety of reasons, including differences in assumed technology availability and institutional settings. Figure 7.5 shows the results for these two models for the reference and 550-ppm stabilization scenarios for renewable electricity generation.
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From page 314... ...
. Regulating greenhouse gas emissions through market based mechanisms, energy efficiency programs, and economic incentives, the CSA sets caps on annual emissions, primarily of CO2, that decline from 5775 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2012 (7 percent below 2006 emission levels)
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Coal w/o CCS Natural Gas w/CCS Commercial Biomass 150 100 50 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Stabilization of CO2 at 550 ppm 200 Oil w/o CCS Non-Biomass Renewables Coal w/CCS Natural Gas w/o CCS Oil w/CCS Nuclear U.S. Primary Energy (EJ/Year)
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From page 316... ...
Energy Market and Electricity Mix As expected, the projected greenhouse gas emissions in scenarios with emissions regulations are significantly lower than those in the reference case. The EIA's core CSA scenario described above would result in an 85–90 percent reduction of CO2 equivalent emissions by 2030, and its high-cost case in a 50–60 percent reduction during the same timeframe.
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The EIA estimated that renewable electricity generation would be signifi cantly higher under the provisions of the CSA, with the vast majority of the increase from wind generation, followed by generation from biomass (EIA, 2008a)
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From page 318... ...
electricity mix, as is projected in the 20 percent wind scenario discussed above in this chapter. Interestingly, despite the rapid growth rate for solar electricity in all cases, averaging 19 percent annually, solar would still contribute less than 1 percent of total U.S.
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The actual cost of implementing legislation such as the CSA would depend on unknowns such as future reductions in the cost of renewable technologies, the potential for successful commercialization of CCS, and future costs for nuclear power -- all of which can not be predicted by the model. FINDINGS Shown in bold below are the most critical elements of the panel's findings, based on its examination of previously produced scenarios, regarding the future expan sion of renewable electricity and factors affecting renewables expansion and inte gration into the U.S.
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From page 320... ...
assess the impacts of 20 percent wind at a regional level. Solar PV and CSP could also contribute to attaining additional renewable electricity generation by 2035.
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From page 321... ...
However, because a substantial fraction of new renewable electricity generation capacity would come from intermittent z distant sources, increases in transmission capacity and other grid improvements are critical for significant penetration of renewable electricity sources. According to the Department of Energy's study postulating 20 percent wind penetration, transmission could be the greatest obstacle to reaching the 20 percent wind generation level.
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From page 322... ...
In the period from 2020 to 2035, it is reasonable to envision that contin ued and even further accelerated deployment could potentially result in non hydroelectric renewables providing, collectively, 20 percent or more of domestic electricity generation by 2035. In the third timeframe, beyond 2035, continued development of renewable electricity technologies could potentially provide lower costs and result in further increases in the percentage of renewable electricity generated from renewable resources.
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Wind Power Installation, Cost, and Performance Trends. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
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From page 324... ...
2006. Grid impacts of wind power variability: Recent assessments from a variety of utilities in the United States.
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From page 325... ...
2006. Grid Impacts of Wind Power Variability: Recent Assessments from a Variety of Utilities in the United States.
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