Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (2009) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
2 Effective Decision Support: Definitions, Principles, and Implementation
2 Effective Decision Support: Definitions, Principles, and Implementation
Pages 33-70
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 33... ...
We draw on a wide range of literature to distill six key principles that characterize effective decision support systems and to document the benefits of following them. The chapter identifies the types of services or activities decision support systems provide, the barriers that can prevent effective implementation of the principles, and strategies for over 33
|
From page 34... ...
Ongoing communication between the producers and users of information is at the center of these processes, and information products are one result, but not the exclusive one. This view stems from decision support activities "on the ground," including some that are sponsored by federal agencies, such as the Global Change Research Program of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
|
From page 35... ...
Although decision support can potentially help all climate-affected decision makers get better results, a decision maker who does not yet realize that a decision at hand is climate sensitive will not perceive a need for such support. Thus, one of the challenges of decision support is to identify climate-sensitive decisions that are not being treated as such, help decision makers realize how climate change may affect them, and then support subsequent climate-cognizant decisions.
|
From page 36... ...
It includes various kinds of activities, products, and services, including efforts to identify decision makers' information needs; production of decision-relevant information; creation of information products based on this information; dissemination of these products; efforts to encourage the use of decisionrelevant information; ongoing communication among producers and users of decision support products and services to evaluate and improve the quality of information, relationships between information producers and users, and ultimate decisions; and development of organizations, networks, and institutions to serve those purposes. Decision support cannot lower actual risks directly or immediately, but it can influence humans' awareness of and responses to risk in ways that can, over time, mitigate threats from the natural world, as well as the vulnerability resulting from human exposure to threats.
|
From page 37... ...
They include the people and organizations that develop the knowledge needed to produce those products and services, as well as the knowledge, information products, and services. Effective Decision Support The effectiveness of decision support can be judged by the extent to which it increases the likelihood that decisionrelevant information is produced and enables and empowers decision makers to use it appropriately.
|
From page 38... ...
Processes for enhancing such learning are discussed in more detail in Chapter 3. PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE DECISION SUPPORT As noted above, decision support has a long history in fields other than climate, including public health; hazards management; natural resource management; environmental management and policy making; land use planning; environmental risk communication; sustainability science and promotion of sustainable behavior; stratospheric ozone, air quality, and climate change mitigation; and specific efforts in coping with and adapting to climate variability and change in various sectors or regions: see Box 2-1.
|
From page 39... ...
EFFECTIVE DECISION SUPPORT 39 BOX 2-1 Sources of Evidence About Effectiveness in Decision Support Public health: Valente and Schuster, 2002; Totlandsdal et al., 2007; Jackson and Shields, 2008 Hazards management: Quarantelli, 1991; Cutter, 1994; Mileti, 1999; Drew, Nyerges, and Leschine, 2004; Morss et al., 2005 Natural resource management: Feller et al., 1984; Healey and Ascher, 1995; McDaniels, Gregory, and Fields, 1999; Wondolleck and Yaffee, 2000; Jacobs and Pulwarty, 2004; Mascarenhas and Scarce, 2004; Power, Sadler, and Nicholls, 2005; Rayner, Ingram, and Lach, 2005; Nyerges et al., 2006; Corringham, Westerling, and Morehouse, 2008 Environmental management and policy making: Lemmons and Brown, 1995; Sexton et al., 1999; Steel et al., 2004; Francis et al., 2005; Stoll-Kleemann, 2005 Land use planning: James, 1999; Forester, 1999; Dortmans, 2005; Francis et al., 2004; Richardson, 2005; Szaro, Boyce, and Puchlerz, 2005; Lejano, 2008 Environmental risk communication: National Research Council, 1989; Covello, McCallum, and Pavlova, 1989; Kasperson and Kasperson, 2005 Sustainability science and promotion of sustainable behavior: Gardner and Stern, 1996; National Research Council, 1999c; McKenzie-Mohr and Smith, 1999; Kates et al., 2001; Clark and Dickson, 2003; Kasemir et al., 2003; Kaufmann-Hayoz and Gutscher, 2001; van Kerkhoff and Lebel, 2006 Stratospheric ozone, air quality, and climate change mitigation: Haas, 1992; Liftin, 1994; Glasser, 1995; Alcamo, Kreileman, and Leemans, 1996; Shackley, 1997; Social Learning Group, 2001; Parson, 2003; Bergin et al., 2005; Cimorelli and Stahl, 2005; Engel-Cox and Hoff, 2005; Grundmann, 2006; Gupta and van Asselt, 2006; Crutzen and Oppenheimer, 2008 Coping with and adapting to climate variability and change in various sec tors or regions: Berkes and Folke, 1998; Cash, 2001; Jacobs, 2002; Pulwarty and Melis, 2001; Pulwarty, 2003; Georgakakos et al., 2005; Jacobs, Garfin, and Lenart, 2005; Lemos and Morehouse, 2005; Cash, Borck, and Patt, 2006; Moser, 2006a, 2007a; Welp et al., 2006; Tribbia and Moser, 2008 Several recent attempts have been made to integrate this wealth of practical insights and the more theoretical literature to accelerate and foster learning throughout the research community (e.g., Cash et al., 2003; van Kerkhoff, 2005; McNie, 2007; Mitchell et al., 2006; National Research Council, 2005b, 2006b, 2008c, 2008d; Singh et al., 2002; Vogel et al.,
|
From page 40... ...
. Drawing on the primary sources and these integrative efforts, we note a convergence of these literatures on six general principles for designing effective decision support systems that are appropriate for all phases of decision support efforts.
|
From page 41... ...
Begin with Users' Needs Effective decision support needs to begin with collaborative problem definition, including all the parties involved, and to support interactions and learning among them. The rationale is obvious -- to identify which knowledge is needed by decision makers (and when and how)
|
From page 42... ...
. Another process that is key to effective decision support is the development of a culture of learning among decision support participants (for further discussion, see Chapter 3)
|
From page 43... ...
. NOAA's RISA centers are an example in the climate area; other federally sponsored boundary organizations, such as the EPA's Great Lakes National Program Office, which are already performing linking functions, can expand their work on climate.
|
From page 44... ...
. When scientists and decision makers are not already skilled in working with each other, boundary organizations may be necessary to produce fruitful interactions and effective decision support.
|
From page 45... ...
. Decision support efforts that do not take the time and care needed for multi- and interdisciplinary collaboration may produce considerable frustration among scientists and partial or misleading information for decision makers.
|
From page 46... ...
, which was initially instrumental in building consensus around technological solutions to replace ozone-depleting substances and has become a permanent technical advisory body to the parties of the Montreal Protocol. Box 2-2 describes various models of institutionalized decision support, but the universe of potentially effective decision support models is not restricted to these few.
|
From page 47... ...
The NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program NOAA established the RISA Program in the mid-1990s to help "realign our nation's climate research to better serve society" by supporting "research that addresses complex climate sensitive issues of concern to decision makers and policy planners at a regional level" (see http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/)
|
From page 48... ...
The TEAP model, while reflecting the principles of effective decision support described in this chapter, cannot simply be copied for responding to climate change, because the latter problem is much more complicated in its technological and economic aspects, and the political issues are far more difficult to address. Design for Learning As Chapter 1 describes, the climate is continually changing and interacting with a world that is changing independently; the science of climate change is also rapidly changing and will continue to change; and
|
From page 49... ...
. Second, information products created in isolation from specific decision contexts will not necessarily meet decision makers' needs, especially in rapidly changing decision environments.
|
From page 50... ...
To begin, it is important to recognize that decision support activities and services vary over the course of a decision support relationship and differ depending on the phase of the policy or decision-making process. Different Services at Different Stages in the Decision Process A rich and varied literature conceives of policy making and decision making as progressing in stages or phases (e.g., Brewer, 1973; Brewer and deLeon, 1992; Birkland, 2005)
|
From page 51... ...
Sometimes new science will be needed, while at other times the greatest need is for translating and interpreting existing knowledge to make it more accessible and useful to policy and management. Effective decision support addresses not only decision makers' expressed concerns and needs, but also the potential concerns they, or affected parties, might raise if they had more knowledge, understanding, and capacity to participate.
|
From page 52... ...
Effective facilitation of any of these processes can be essential in establishing good work ing relationships, developing useful insights, and engendering a spirit of curiosity and collaboration. They also make clear which decision support services are most needed initially.
|
From page 53... ...
. Effective decision support activities have to address these challenges in producing relevant information, making it available through mediated and direct communication channels, and fostering its appropriate interpretation and use.
|
From page 54... ...
Finally, both public and private forums for dialogue among scientists, decision makers, and other parties can provide important decision support services. The right formats for such forums depend on the intended goal (Forester, 1999; Rowe and Frewer, 2000; Creighton, 2005; National Research Council, 2008c)
|
From page 55... ...
. It may require research teams to acquire new skill sets or to involve individuals with experience in this set of decision support services, and it may call on decision makers to take more risks, rely more heavily on personal judgment, or operate more iteratively (Jacobs, Garfin, and Lenart, 2005)
|
From page 56... ...
Decision Structuring An overwhelming emphasis on climate modeling and information products has drawn attention away from an extensive body of relevant knowledge from the decision sciences that shows that poor decisions come not just from a lack of good technical information (e.g., Kahneman et al., 1982; Kahneman and Tversky, 2000; Plous, 1993; Simon, 1956; Slovic et al., 1977; Tversky and Kahneman, 1981)
|
From page 57... ...
Specialists draw on insights from the decision sciences to help inform and guide decision processes through these elements, with ongoing input from decision makers and stakeholders. Discussions may lead to calls for research on specific options and their consequences.
|
From page 58... ...
Some of the users' judgments have been strongly positive, and the positive judgments appear to be associated with recognition that the programs have followed principles of effective decision support, particularly beginning with users' needs and linking information producers and users. For example, the Western Governors' Association passed a resolution in May 2007 to "give a high priority to funding for federal programs, such as the RISAs that provide the translation function between basic scientific re Some decision researchers have demonstrated that in a range of difficult decision contexts, nonscientists and their organizations use fairly simple cognitive heuristics quite effectively to arrive at decisions (e.g., Gigerenzer and Selten, 2001; Zsambok and Klein, 1997; Hodgkinson and Starbuck, 2008)
|
From page 59... ...
BARRIERS TO EFFECTIVE DECISION SUPPORT The scientists and practitioners who interact with each other around climate decisions do so outside the boundaries of familiar disciplinary, institutional, and professional expectations, and occasionally at considerable personal and professional expense. Working through boundary organizations may reduce some of these costs, but that can involve its own challenges and resource commitments (Cash et al., 2003; Sarewitz, 2004)
|
From page 60... ...
People can readily use these justifications to postpone the search for decision support and discount information that might require a change of practices. In addition, well-funded interests have long engaged in concerted efforts to bolster the justifications for inaction by disputing scientific evidence of climate change, its current impacts, and its likely consequences.
|
From page 61... ...
Rapidly evolving and emerging decision contexts are set against a backdrop of organizational inertia, presenting a challenge to any efforts to improve decisions. Decision support practitioners need to constantly assess the "fit" between situational realities and decision processes.
|
From page 62... ...
The USGS has nevertheless made significant efforts to increase the relevance of its science to resource and environmental management issues and the awareness of decision makers of the availability of information developed by USGS research and monitoring programs. Although there has been progress, the need remains to better understand how the agency can best inform decision makers.
|
From page 63... ...
. In light of the rapidly changing climate and policy contexts, these omissions in professional education and training will lead to a situation where human resource constraints seriously undermine the nation's ability to respond to the rapidly growing demand for climate-related decision support.
|
From page 64... ...
Leadership Leadership and effective organizational management by top-level individuals in government institutions and in business, as well as at all other levels, is necessary to effectively overcome the deeply engrained barriers to effective decision support and to carry out the daily work of decision support: define scopes of work, maintain project momentum, attend to administrative tasks, initiate efforts to bridge decision-research gaps, maintain independence and integrity, and sustain internal and external relationships. Leadership is also needed to overcome barriers to change and initiate innovative practices.
|
From page 65... ...
For example, a 2006 California law that established the goals of reducing the state's greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and to 80 percent below that by 2050 has created an enormous demand for technical information to create reliable greenhouse gas inventories; establish practical yet verifiable accounting systems; implement technological, market, and behavioral strategies to reduce emissions; and estimate costs and possible savings for each option. A 2008 California law requires disclosures of greenhouse gas emissions in the state environmental review process and thereby creates a new information need for regulatory agencies and regulated entities, some of whom may supply this information for themselves.
|
From page 66... ...
Getting researchers and decision makers to agree to work with and through a boundary organization, and establishing trust in this collaboration, may take time; however, successful boundary organizations lower the transaction costs of working at the science-practice interface. Funding for Decision Support A careful assessment of financial needs, expenditures, and impacts may help redirect available funds toward effective decision support.
|
From page 67... ...
Decision support systems promote these objectives by engaging in activities and providing services related to communication, mediation and brokerage, and research and observation to produce decision-relevant information, decision structuring, and evaluation. Some decision support efforts, including some of NOAA's RISA centers, are already striving to implement the principles of effective decision support in the climate response context and fulfill the main functions of decision support programs.
|
From page 68... ...
• The federal government should selectively support state and lo cal governments and nongovernmental organizations to expand their efforts to provide effective decision support to their climate-affected constituencies. In developing new decision support activities or expanding programs to serve new constituencies, a useful way to begin is with dialogues about decisions that affect or are affected by climate change (see National Research Council, 2008d)
|
From page 69... ...
Applicants would be asked to demonstrate that their activities would provide new, needed, and more useful climate information to an identified constituency; contribute to the development of lasting decision support networks or other institutions; and, for pilot projects, have a likelihood of becoming self-supporting.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.