Tsunami Warning and Preparedness An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 3-20
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From page 3... ...
In particular, the committee was asked to review how the expansion of the sea level sensor network has improved the ability to detect and forecast tsunamis; how the tsunami program could be improved; and how well it is coordinated with other efforts. The NAS expanded the scope of the study to also review the nation's ability to minimize the impact from future tsunamis by educating and preparing the American public.
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From page 4... ...
bitmap BOX S.1 What Is a Near-Field and a Far-Field Tsunami? A tsunami generated close to the shoreline is known as a "near-field" tsunami; a tsunami generated by a source far from the point of impact is referred to as a "far-field" tsunami.
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From page 5... ...
Assessing tsunami risk is challenging: there is a paucity of information about the frequency, source, and characteristics of past tsunamis and their reoccurrence intervals; vulnerability of coastal communities cannot be assessed without considering interdependencies from a larger economic and sociopolitical context; and the potential impacts of future events are uncertain. Although difficult to assess, societal risk from tsunamis is critical information in the development and prioritization of risk-reduction efforts including: education, preparedness planning, warning-system development, mitigation, and response strategies at the local, state, and federal level.
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From page 6... ...
A typical tsunami hazard assessment accordingly includes: • studies of the locations, sizes, and histories of tsunami sources, which are usually earth quakes but can also be landslides or volcanic eruptions; • inundation models, which determine the areas most likely to be flooded; • hazard maps, which portray inundation models on maps that show roads, elevation and buildings, and other critical infrastructure; and • evacuation maps, which depict areas that need to be evacuated in the event of a tsunami and show evacuation routes to safe havens. Modeling tsunami inundation begins at the tsunami source with estimates of the seafloor deformation that initiates the tsunami.
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From page 7... ...
Currently, there is no national assessment of population exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis, including the number and types of individuals in tsunami hazard zones. This lack of information limits abilities to assess national tsunami risk, develop realistic evacuation plans, and tailor education efforts to at-risk individuals.
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From page 8... ...
PREPARING IN ADVANCE THROUGH A CONSISTENT PUBLIC EDUCATION CAMPAIGN Surviving a tsunami depends on the ability of an individual in the hazard zone to recognize warning signals, make correct decisions, and act quickly. For near-field tsunamis, waves will arrive within minutes after generation; therefore, at-risk individuals will need to recognize natural cues such as the ground shaking or the receding of the water line as the primary warning.
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From page 9... ...
Preparing Communities Because of the breadth and diversity of actions that could be taken to increase preparedness, the committee restricted its review of community preparedness to NOAA's TsunamiReady Program, which has emerged in recent years as a framework for improving tsunami preparedness in coastal jurisdictions. TsunamiReady is a voluntary program that aims to help communities reduce the potential impacts from tsunami-related disasters through redundant and reliable warning communications, better preparation through community education, and official readiness through formal planning and exercises.
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From page 10... ...
Developing and Delivering Effective Warning Messages The likelihood of individuals responding to tsunami warnings depends on the quality, clarity, and accuracy of the official warning messages they receive from the two Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) and/or local and state emergency management agencies.
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From page 11... ...
• Near-field tsunami threats: Initial evacuations will be self-directing after at-risk individuals recognize natural cues. The committee concludes, however, that table-top and functional exercises are still important because of the significant response and relief operations after the initial tsunami wave arrives.
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From page 12... ...
Coastal and open ocean sea level sensor networks can also detect tsunamis from sources that fail to generate seismic waves. Although the detection of the open ocean signal can occur within the first hour after the tsunami, forecasts might take longer.
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From page 13... ...
These new and upgraded sea level stations have closed significant gaps in the sea level sensor network that had left many U.S. coastal communities subject to uncertain tsunami warnings.
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From page 14... ...
Recommendation: NOAA should assess on a regular basis the vulnerabilities to, and quality of, the data streams from all elements of the sea level sensor networks, beginning with the highest priority sites determined per the recommendations above. Recommendation: NOAA should encourage access to the DART platform by other observational programs, because the platform presents an opportunity to acquire a long time series of oceanographic and meteorological variables.
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From page 15... ...
Infrastructure such as sea level sensor networks and communications equipment could be destroyed by the initial impact of the tsunami wave, leading to a lack of official warnings. One way to accomplish real-time measurements is to collect data using cabled seafloor observatories.
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From page 16... ...
, jointly applied to the seismic and bottom pressure data, should be developed to realize the most rapid tsunami detection possible. Another promising area of research that could improve the ability to more rapidly predict the magnitude of a tsunami comes from Global Positioning System (GPS)
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From page 17... ...
Recommendation: The NOAA/NWS should harmonize and standardize checklists, tsunami warning products, and decision support tools, and it should use standard TWC software tools and applications. Recommendation: Given the importance of IT and the rapid evolution of IT, the tsunami warning program should undertake a comprehensive, enterprise-wide long-range technology planning effort, consistent with international technology process and product standards, in order to develop both an enterprise-wide technology architecture for TWC operations and the accompanying enterprise-wide technology support processes.
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From page 18... ...
The watchstander has a critical role in tsunami decision support by maintaining situational awareness and issuing correct notification and warning products. Although visualization software assists by monitoring seismic and sea level data and mapping event locations, it is the watchstanders' training, experience, and expert judgment that are essential in making the appropriate decisions when creating warning products.
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From page 19... ...
Also, inconsistencies in warning products issued by the two T WCs have caused confusion. Because clear communication and consistency in message content are two key principles to effective warning message composition, the TWCs' warning products are less effective in eliciting the appropriate response.
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From page 20... ...
However, the committee found many shortcomings of the TWCs in terms of function, technology, human capital, and organizational structures, and many opportunities for significant improvements in center operations. Improvements will depend upon an organizational culture change within the NOAA/NWS Tsunami Program that supports and celebrates operational excellence, adopts national and international standards, processes, best practices, and lessons learned for all functions, technologies, processes, and products, and continuously seeks process improvements.
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