Russian Views on Countering Terrorism During Eight Years of Dialogue Extracts from Proceedings of Four U.S.-Russian Workshops (2009) / Chapter Skim
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Use of Predictive Modeling Packages for Effective Emergency Management--Nikolai Petrovich Kopylov and Irek Ravilevich Khasanov
Use of Predictive Modeling Packages for Effective Emergency Management--Nikolai Petrovich Kopylov and Irek Ravilevich Khasanov
Pages 275-288
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From page 275... ...
The primary goal of the integrated state system for predicting and eliminating the consequences of extreme situations is to integrate the efforts of executive branch agencies at both the federal and the Russian Federation subject levels. The main objectives of activities under the state system are as follows: *
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From page 276... ...
The strategy for creating and developing national security support systems by states attests to the fact that information and management centers created at the national and regional levels and in major cities represent the universal foundation for the crisis management system. Informational support for such centers is provided by services such as 911, 112, and 01, as well as by scientific and academic centers.5 Intensive efforts are under way to apply modern concepts for the creation of crisis management centers involving high-technology equipment for communications and information exchange, depiction, and processing, which helps in efficiently preparing and making well-founded management decisions.
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The modern understanding of a situation center focuses on the entirety of programmatic and technical resources, scientific and mathematical methods, and engineering solutions for automating processes for situational depiction, numerical simulation, analysis, and management. 7 All of these means and methods make possible the following: • Providing information on matters where operational decisions are required • Visually depicting management situations to reveal cause-effect relationships for events being analyzed • Numerically simulating and conducting situational analyses • Effecting operational control over efforts being carried out by structural subunits • Verifying execution of decisions made The situation centers include various types of analytical support capabilities (programmatic, technical, linguistic, psychological, and so forth)
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From page 278... ...
The center's primary tasks are as follows: • Collecting, accumulating, and analyzing information on the status of facilities at risk of fire or explosion and on EMERCOM forces, means, and reserves • Providing informational, analytical, and expert support for management decisions on preventing and eliminating the consequences of fires and technogenic emergencies • Predicting the development of fires and technogenic emergencies at critically important facilities • Developing, implementing, and supporting software systems for management and modeling at the Situation Center • Providing technical documentation for numerical simulation packages for fires and emergencies and organizing and supporting work to develop models and methodologies to facilitate the Situation Center's activities • Organizing the operations and information security of the Situation Center • Developing and supporting technical and telecommunications services at the Situation Center and developing and maintaining informational support for data banks and databases Based on its purpose, functions, and tasks, an organizational-technical structure including the following components has been proposed for the VNIIPO Situation Center: • Analysis • Applied software support • Information infrastructure • General-purpose software and hardware environment • Complex of special-purpose software and hardware resources • Information security subsystem
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From page 279... ...
The database contains information on more than 12,000 substances and materials, including data on the fire and explosive hazards of substances and materials, means of extinguishing them, and the potential reactions of substances and materials if they should come into contact. VNIIPO has developed and is using several regions a geographic information system for decision support in operations management by local fire and rescue units involved in responding to fires and eliminating the consequences of emergency situations.
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, establishment according to proper procedure of accounting of situation changes and use of personnel and equipment, and registration of necessary information • Implementation of other measures aimed at ensuring service delivery according to established procedure and increasing the effectiveness of firefighters' actions An automated decision support system for use by fire captains at the scene has been developed to provide operational information and analytical support for decision makers. This system automates the following processes: • Accumulation and storage of site data • Presentation in convenient form of information used by the fire captain in preparing operational decisions on managing firefighters' actions at the scene • Calculation of potential fire situations • Calculation of personnel and equipment needed to extinguish fires • Calculation of delivery systems for means of extinguishing fires, including calculation of pump-hose system parameters • Preparation of typical command decisions • Preparation of operational documents • Creation and correction of databases SUBSYSTEM OF ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS The subsystem for analytical support of management decisions must facilitate numerical simulation and prediction of the development of fires and emergency situations.
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From page 281... ...
.12 Equations on the development of a fire describe the change in average volume parameters for the situation over time. The system of differential equations for the balance in the structure includes equations on the material and oxygen balance, equations on the balance of combustion products and inert gas, and an energy equation.
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5-3 shows the calculated dynamics of the average volume temperature in the structure given various amounts of jet fuel assumed in the fuel load. Based on the results of calculations of the joint combustion of spilled jet fuel and furniture, a quantitative estimate was made of the amount of fuel involved in the fire at the World Trade Center.
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Figure 5-4 presents optical density fields for smoke in a central vertical section of the Lefortovo Tunnel, which is shallowly situated in Moscow's third transport ring. A study was carried out using a three-dimensional field model to predict the distribution of fire hazard factors in the tunnel both with and without antismoke ventilation.15 A traffic accident involving a truck and several passenger vehicles in this 18.2 × 5.2meter tunnel served as the emergency situation for the purposes of the model.
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284 RUSSIAN VIEWS ON COUNTERING TERRORISM a myu: 0.1 0.12 0.238 0.3 0.5 1 6 4 xc 2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 zc yc b myu: 0.1 0.12 0.238 0.3 0.5 1 6 4 xc 2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 zc yc c myu: 0.1 0.12 0.238 0.3 0.5 1 6 4 xc 2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 zc yc d myu: 0.1 0.12 0.238 0.3 0.5 1 6 4 xc 2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 zc yc e myu: 0.1 0.12 0.238 0.3 0.5 1 6 4 xc 2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 zc yc FIGURE 5-4 Optical density fields for smoke in the central vertical section of the Lefortovo Tunnel at 60 (a)
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From page 286... ...
For example, the institute has developed a software package for calculating the personnel and resources needed to extinguish fires involving oil, petroleum products, chemicals, and stable gas condensate in storage tanks, during pour-offs to storage ponds or transfers to railway tankers, and at technical pumping stations. The program takes into account the volumes and structures of the combustion sites, the properties of the flammable liquids, tactical and technical characteristics of the foam and water delivery equipments used in extinguishing fires involving oil and petroleum products, and the characteristics of stationary and mobile firefighting equipment.
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, it should be taken into account that numerical solution of such systems requires tens of hours of computer time even using high-output processing technologies. Introducing new modern technologies for numerical simulation of emergency situations requires the following: • Improving the reliability of predictions to prevent and eliminate the consequences of emergency situations • Organizing comprehensive monitoring and information-processing efforts regarding the status of facilities, the environment, and natural and technogenic phenomena that cause emergency situations • Developing mathematical models of the development of fires and emergency situations • Optimizing and facilitating timely correction of action plans and measures for preventing emergency situations as well as eliminating their consequences • Providing a modern level of technical capabilities to support the work of operations personnel, including network communications technologies and means of collecting, analyzing, and presenting information on emergency situations NOTES 1.
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1981. Use of mathematical modeling in studying fire hazard factors.
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