Russian Views on Countering Terrorism During Eight Years of Dialogue Extracts from Proceedings of Four U.S.-Russian Workshops (2009) / Chapter Skim
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Characteristics of Technological Terrorism Scenarios and Impact Factors--Nikolai A. Makhutov, Vitaly P. Petrov, and Dmitry O. Reznikov
Characteristics of Technological Terrorism Scenarios and Impact Factors--Nikolai A. Makhutov, Vitaly P. Petrov, and Dmitry O. Reznikov
Pages 305-322
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Reznikov, Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Machine Sciences INTRODUCTION Technological terrorism is defined as actions directed against infrastructure elements critically important for national security or committed with the use of especially hazardous technologies, technical means, and materials. In considering technological terrorism scenarios, the primary impact factors of such terrorist acts initiate secondary catastrophic processes with a significantly higher (tens and hundreds of times)
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Characteristics of the perception of the terrorist threat: A significant part of the population is inclined to fear terrorist attacks to a greater degree than equivalent natural and technogenic phenomena as described in the equation R = Hn·V·U where n < 1, the indicator for the degree characterizing the subjective perception of the consequences of terrorist acts. Complex nature of the terrorist threat: The presence of a terrorist organization in a region may give rise to the possibility of a broad spectrum of attack scenarios, including the time, place, and character of the attack.
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Furthermore, there are types of terrorist actions with no analogues in the structure of impact factors typical of natural and technogenic disasters: for example, cyberterrorism or electromagnetic actions aimed at knocking control systems out of commission. Global nature of terrorist threats: As a rule, the geographic distribution of sources of natural and technogenic threats is limited to regions where hazardous facilities are located or zones subject to natural hazards (river valleys for floods, seismic fault zones for earthquakes, tsunamis, and so forth)
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If the initiating action is a terrorist attack, the interactions among the various factors included in the risk assessment equation are more complex. Similar to the expression above, terrorism risk is presented as follows: RT = PA × P(NU/A)
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MAIN TYPES OF SCENARIOS AND IMPACT FACTORS FOR TERRORIST ACTIONS Based on an analysis of the growing number and expanding spectrum of terrorist actions, we may conclude that scientific-technical progress presents terrorists with new opportunities for carrying out various types of terrorist acts. Successes in the development of advanced technologies and means of communication, high rates of urbanization, and the concentration of potentially hazardous
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Risk of terrorist actions FIGURE 7-1B System of linkages among risk factors for emergency situations of a terrorist nature. production facilities create favorable conditions for the appearance of new types of technological terrorism with especially dangerous consequences for the public and government institutions.
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Use of electromagnetic emissions to detonate mines or other explosive devices placed for the purpose of sabotage Cyberterrorism Scenarios The development of computer networks and information systems based on packet commutation technology has created a new communications and information environment that is vulnerable to terrorist acts.5 Attacks by computer terrorists could be aimed at specific elements of the information infrastructure itself, possibly by means of computer networks, or at other targets present in one way or another in this environment. The network infrastructure as such could be of enormous value to terrorists, inasmuch as it provides a cheap and effective means of interaction and communication and serves as a source from which information may be obtained.
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Computer terrorism scenarios may be particularly effective if used in combination with physical actions against critically important targets. In such cases, a cyberattack is used as a factor intensifying the effect of the physical attack by countering the efforts of rapid-response services and communications and command systems, providing false output data that cause leaders and personnel to take inadequate actions, or creating panic among the public.
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Thus, the relative ease of producing biological weapons, the practical invulnerability of the perpetrators, and the possibility of damages on a huge scale make biological attack scenarios attractive to terrorists. Chemical Terrorism Scenarios Dangerous chemicals are found everywhere in modern industrial society and, consequently, may be accessible to terrorists.7 The following four attack scenarios related to chemical terrorism may be highlighted: 1.
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Furthermore, terrorists would have to either mix the components manually before use, which is an extremely dangerous operation, or try to develop a remote-controlled device to handle the mixing and dispersal, which in turn would require a high degree of technical skill. A very likely terrorist attack scenario would be a case of sabotage at an industrial enterprise that manufactures, processes, or stores highly toxic chemicals, leading to their emission or discharge with subsequent impacts on nearby populated areas.
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Radiation Terrorism Scenarios Scenarios for terrorist acts using radiation sources may be divided into three groups: (1) detonation of a nuclear explosive device, (2)
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Scenarios for Terrorist Attacks Using Explosives Because the goal of any terrorist act is to create maximum resonance in society with minimal costs and minimal risk, the use of explosives for terrorist purposes has become widespread. Potential targets of terrorist attacks could include critically important facilities of undoubted interest from the standpoint of inflicting damage and creating significant societal impact.
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and scenarios: • High level of uncertainty due to lack of knowledge of terrorists' intentions, intellectual potential, and organizational-technical resources, the goals they are pursuing, and the value system by which they are guided • Fragmentary and (often) secret nature of data of various types obtained from various sources, such as statistical information, expert assessments, and operational information obtained from intelligence services • Dynamic nature of terrorist risks The mathematical model being developed for evaluating various terrorist attack scenarios for a given target must meet the following requirements: • The model must facilitate assessments and decision making for situations involving a very high level of uncertainty.
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must assess terrorists' goals, value system, resources, and intellectual and organizational-technical potential; identify basic scenarios for terrorist attacks against a given target; and must assess the probability that various terrorist attack scenarios will be carried out based on their usefulness function, by which (in the opinion of antiterrorist analysts) terrorists must be guided.
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Removal of social Graph 3 infrastructure from affected zone 9. Usefulness to municipal authorities 319 FIGURE 7-2 Three-sided terrorism risk assessment model.
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Fundamental differences are also noted in the usefulness elements of each graph, inasmuch as the usefulness functions for terrorists, facility officials, and the municipal authorities may take completely different factors into account. Terrorists, for example, may be oriented primarily toward infliction of the initial blow and on the expenditures necessary for carrying out the attack, while for facility officials the usefulness function must also include secondary damage and the cost of implementing various protective measures.
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2004. Technological terrorism and methods of countering terrorist threats.
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