Russian Views on Countering Terrorism During Eight Years of Dialogue Extracts from Proceedings of Four U.S.-Russian Workshops (2009) / Chapter Skim
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Analysis of the Threats and Consequences of Terrorist Acts in Urban Settings: Outline of a Protection System--Vladimir Z. Dvorkin
Analysis of the Threats and Consequences of Terrorist Acts in Urban Settings: Outline of a Protection System--Vladimir Z. Dvorkin
Pages 81-92
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From page 81... ...
Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of the World Economy and International Relations This report presents selected results of the project "Terrorism in a Megapolis: An Assessment of Threats and Levels of Protection," which was completed in late 2002 by the Center for Political Research in Russia in cooperation with the Expert Innovation Center for Civil Defense and Emergency Situations and the National Anticrime and Antiterrorist Foundation. The modern industrial infrastructure of highly developed states, in particular in megacities, includes many thousands of radioactive, chemical, and biological facilities and therefore presents a real opportunity for terrorists to inflict catastrophic damage even without using their own weapons of mass destruction, although their desire to obtain such weapons is clear.
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From page 82... ...
An analysis of open informational materials and works on the problem of combating terrorist activities in megacities under the new conditions attests to the pressing need to develop a nearly exhaustive list of methods adequate to respond to the widest possible range of threats and types of terrorist activity. In addition to traditional methods, unique means without analogues in the military sphere may be used in the commission of terrorist acts.
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From page 83... ...
The possibility of using powerful electromagnetic impulses as a means of attack has become absolutely real because of the development of sources capable of creating peak output on the order of several gigawatts and the miniaturization of the elemental components of military and civilian radioelectronics, which makes these devices vulnerable to extremely low levels of electromagnetic wave energy. Danger lies in the use of electromagnetic signals against the components of computers, which are widely used in systems for managing vital public services in megacities, controlling technological processes in dangerous production facilities, and so forth.
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From page 84... ...
Objects in this third category primarily include facilities located in or near the megacity, such as various enterprises in the atomic and chemical industries, research centers that operate nuclear reactors or use dangerous radioactive materials, petroleum storage facilities, and so forth. It should be noted that terrorist acts directed at sites in the third category and using methods aimed at artificially causing wide-scale accidents could have the most dangerous consequences and therefore require more detailed study consideration.
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From page 85... ...
Some examples include • the creation of zones of catastrophic flooding by destroying dams • the radioactive contamination of an area by destroying nuclear reactors • the chemical contamination of the atmosphere and water by destroying chemical plants • the setting of massive fires by burning forests or oil and gas wells • the spreading of epidemics It is clear that a megacity's industrial facilities and high population density make it very vulnerable to dangerous forces of an industrial nature that would be unleashed upon the destruction of such facilities by terrorist groups. In this case, nonnuclear means could be used to trigger other factors with uncontrolled and wide-scale destructive effects.
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From page 86... ...
86 RUSSIAN VIEWS ON COUNTERING TERRORISM TABLE 1 Example of a List of Potentially Dangerous Facilities Possible Impact Type of Facility or Type of Basic Types of Exclusion Zones, Industry Production (Technology) Damage Factors km2 Electric Power Located inside city limits or proximal to megacity: • nuclear reactors at Explosions, fires, Up to several hundred atomic power plants radioactive km2 contamination • storage facilities for Explosions, fires, From tens to several spent nuclear fuel radioactive hundred km2 contamination • dams at hydroelectric Flood surge From tens to several plant reservoirs hundred km2 Atomic Power Processing of spent nuclear fuel: • radiochemical plants Explosions, Up to several • spent fuel storage radioactive thousand km2 facilities contamination Fuel Extraction and processing of oil and gas: • oil and gas refineries, Explosions, massive From tens to several including units fires, chemical hundred km2 producing ammonia pollution of and other powerful atmosphere poisons Pulp and Bisulfate production of pulp Explosions, massive From tens to several Paper using powerful poisonous fires, chemical hundred km2 substances pollution of atmosphere Food Refrigerated processing and Explosions, massive Up to several km2 storage facilities fires, chemical pollution of atmosphere Public Utilities Water treatment plants and Explosions, massive Up to several km2 purification facilities fires, chemical pollution of atmosphere Agriculture Storage facilities for Explosions, massive Up to several km2 anhydrous ammonia and fires, chemical ammonia water for use as pollution of soil fertilizers and atmosphere defoliators for cotton and other crops, central stockpiles of chemical pesticides and herbicides
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From page 87... ...
Damage Factors km2 Microbiological Scientific research centers and test facilities: • production of biological Pollution of Up to several km2 agents and mixtures atmosphere and local biospheres • production of biological livestock feed additives harmful to humans Transportation Railroad tank and freight Explosions, fires, Up to several km2 cars, tanker trucks, marine radioactive or tankers, and cargo freighters chemical contamination of the environment Chemical General chemistry: Explosions, fires, From tens to several • production of powerful chemical hundred km2 poisonous substances contamination of the (chlorine, ammonia, atmosphere and water phosgene, hydrocyanic acid, organophosphorus compounds, anhydrous sulfur dioxide, hydrogen fluoride, inorganic acids, etc. • nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers • chemical herbicides and pesticides • chemical fibers and threads • synthetic dyes, resins, and plastics Level of expertise required for carrying out terrorist attack: 1.
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From page 88... ...
several hundred victims, tens of square kilometers suffering destruction or contamination, city infrastructure disrupted and requiring several weeks or federal government funds and resources to restore, economic damage comparable to the annual city budget 4. several thousand victims, several hundred square kilometers suffering destruction or contamination, consequences beyond the megacity, event of nationwide scope A categorized list of a megacity's critical (most vulnerable)
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From page 89... ...
• explosives plants 3–6 3 1 or 2 1–3 1 1–3 • pulping plants using 2–4 3 1 or 2 1–3 1 2 or 3 bisulfates and other powerful poisonous substances continued
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From page 90... ...
Megacity water supply system: • water mains and wells about 2 1 or 4 1 or 3 1 1 or 2 supplying the city with 10,000 drinking water km • water treatment facilities 20–30 3 1 or 4 1 or 3 1 1 or 2 • boiler plants about 3 1 or 2 1 1 1 100 • sewer system 5000– 1 1 or 2 1 1 1 6000 km • storm drain network about 1 1 or 2 1 1 1 6000 km • water intake points 10–15 3 1 or 4 1 or 3 1 1 or 2
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From page 91... ...
Other subprograms involve the development of a unified conceptual and terminological framework and a set of laws, regulations, and reference documents, as well as the implementation of a series of special research, design, industrial, socioeconomic, organizational, and other measures to ensure the effective handling of security problems related to combating high-tech terrorism. Integrating all existing security and public service systems will make it possible to create a systematic basis for protecting the population, facilities, and territories from various types of external and internal threats.
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From page 92... ...
More detailed materials on the problems mentioned above may be found in the previously cited publication of the Center for Political Research in Russia, which its authors believe to be the first systematic attempt at a comprehensive analysis of the problems of combating terrorism in megacities. The publication also provides a basis for the initiation of a more in-depth systematic analysis of these problems and the development of a set of practical recommendations and organizational and technical measures for effectively meeting these new security challenges.
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