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1 Context and Challenges
Pages 9-34

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From page 9...
... These technologies include those that convert primary energy resources (e.g., fossil fuels, nuclear, solar, and wind) into useful forms (e.g., gasoline and electricity)
From page 10...
... A secondary focus will be on technologies with longer times to deployment. The study will specifically provide estimates and findings on the following: • For current technologies and technologies where initial deployment is judged to be within the next decade: estimates of costs, performance, and impacts • For technologies where deployment is judged likely to be between 10 and 25 years: findings regarding key factors that enhance or impede adoption, implications for costs, and R&D challenges • For technologies where deployment is judged likely to be greater than 25 years: findings regarding key factors that enhance or impede R&D challenges.
From page 11...
... 2. The burning of fossil fuels has a number of deleterious environmental impacts, among the most serious of which is the emission of greenhouse gases,3 primarily carbon dioxide (CO2)
From page 12...
... and the heat stored in Earth's upper crust. Primary energy sources can be converted into useful energy that, for example, powers a vehicle, lights a building, or supplies heat for an industrial process, although the conversion process inevitably involves energy losses (which can be quite considerable)
From page 13...
... These primary energy sources are very large compared to U.S. energy demand.
From page 14...
... Our nation's dependence on fossil fuels evolved not only because they were available at low market costs7 but also because their physical and chemical properties are well suited to particular uses: petroleum for transportation; natural gas as an industrial feedstock, for residential and commercial space heating, and, more recently, as a fuel for electric power generation; and coal for the generation of electricity and as a feedstock for some industrial processes (Figure 1.8)
From page 15...
... Prices for natural gas in the North American market have been lower than the price for liquefied natural gas11 on the world market. During the last 2 years, North American natural gas production from conventional resources has declined.
From page 16...
... If North American natural gas production cannot be expanded to meet demand, then dependence on natural gas imports could mirror that on petroleum. Figure 1.8 also shows that the burning of fossil fuels -- principally coal and secondarily natural gas -- accounts for almost 75 percent of the electricity gener ated in the United States.
From page 17...
... Sources: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Department of Energy, based on data from the Energy Information Administration, 2008a.
From page 18...
... Consumption = 101.6 Quads 30 20 10 0 Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydropower Biomass Other Power Renewables Energy Source Figure 1.2 Energy consumption in the United States in 2007 by fuel source, in quads (bars) and as percentages (pie chart)
From page 19...
... Source: Energy Information Administration, 2008b. R01203 Main Report 1-4
From page 20...
... On average, higher per capita energy consumption is associated with increasing per Main Report 1-5 capita GDP; however, in some cases, per capita GDP has increased while energy use has declined. Sources: Adapted from Shell International BV, Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 (2008)
From page 21...
... and projected (2008–2030) energy consumption in the United States by primary energy source, in quads.
From page 22...
... R01203 Main Report 1-8 40 Renewables 35 Coal Quadrillion Btu (Quads) Natural Gas 30 Petroleum Electricity 25 20 15 10 5 0 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Sector Figure 1.9 Total energy consumption in the United States in 2007, shown by end-use sector and by fuel type.
From page 23...
... Natural gas single-cycle plants Main Report 1-10 are not shown because they are intended for peaking rather than baseload generation. Many of these baseload plants have been upgraded since plant operations commenced.
From page 24...
... Source: Data from Energy Information Administration, 2008b. R01203 Main Report 1-12
From page 25...
... CHALLENGES TO TRANSFORMING ENERGY PRODUCTION AND USE There is a growing recognition that our nation's current approaches for obtaining useful energy, being largely dependent on fossil fuels, are unsustainable over the long term and that we must therefore transform the manner in which energy is produced, distributed, and consumed. The need to transform the U.S.
From page 26...
... These policies and regulations have focused in part on mitigating the envi ronmental impacts of energy production and use, but they have been piecemeal efforts. The fact is that the United States has never implemented a truly compre hensive set of national policies for obtaining and using energy to meet national goals for sustainability, economic prosperity, security, and environmental quality.
From page 27...
... It is the AEF Committee's judgment that comprehensive and sustained national policies for energy production and use will be needed to achieve a timely transformation to the more sustainable, secure, and environmentally benign energy system envisioned in this report. However, to help shape these policies will require sound and dispassionate technical analyses of the opportunities and challenges before us.
From page 28...
... Especially important in this regard are the prices for fossil fuels and other materials, the availability and costs of special ized resources and capital, and key public policies and regulations that address, for example, renewable-energy portfolio standards, building regulations, corpo rate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards, and carbon prices.14 Because of the uncertainties about how these factors will play out in the decades ahead, the technology-deployment options that are identified in this chapter and in Part  of this report should be considered as important first-step technology assessments rather than as forecasts as to which technologies will be implemented and how important each technology will be.
From page 29...
... Along these same lines, better understanding of how geoengineering15 or the ecology of microbial systems affects climate could yield new insights on managing greenhouse gas emissions from energy production and use. In fact, unexpected breakthroughs might even enable fusion technology to contribute to the U.S.
From page 30...
... The AEF Committee also assessed the prospects of some other technologies that will be critical both in meeting the anticipated growth of energy demand and in enabling the deeper market penetration of the new energy-supply and end-use technologies themselves. These critical technolo gies range from CCS, which would support not only the continued use of fossil fuels for electricity generation but also any future production of liquid fuels, to advanced battery, fuel-cell, and hydrogen technologies.
From page 31...
... . How ever, the committee did not assess the future role of technologies for the exploration, extraction, storage, and transportation of primary energy sources (e.g., fossil fuels)
From page 32...
... Also, the utilization of biomass for liquid fuels production could reduce the supplies of bio mass available for electricity generation. Therefore the potential contri butions of the energy-supply and end-use technologies identified in this report should not be viewed as predictions of any specific future mix of primary energy resources and conversion methods.
From page 33...
... A study on energy conservation would require, for example, an in-depth understanding of how social, eco nomic, and policy factors affect energy consumption. • The report does not provide forecasts of future prices of primary energy inputs (e.g., for petroleum and coal)
From page 34...
... • Electricity transmission and distribution systems that reliably accom modate intermittent energy supplies such as solar and wind and sophis ticated demand-side energy efficiency technologies (Chapter 9)


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