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Appendix B: Watch-List Operational Performance and List Size: A First-Cut Analysis
Pages 150-153

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From page 150...
... . Two types of results may be distinguished here: matching an enrolled presenter to the correct prior enrollment sample or, less restrictively, recognizing that the presenter has previously enrolled, although perhaps by matching to the wrong enrollee.
From page 151...
... from enrollee characteristics. In a finite population setting, where increasing enrollment increases p, a much more complicated argument might be required, with the outcome dependent on the specifics of functional relationships.
From page 152...
... The definition and above discussion of NPV remain unaltered because a false match of a presenting enrollee, which is the event adjudicated differently by identification and watchlist recognition, does not contribute to probabilities conditioned on the absence of a match. Moreover, PPV(p)
From page 153...
... In the resulting change, the increasing dominance of the PPV fraction by its numerator term outweighs the increasing chance of false recognition for any single impostor challenge, because impostor challenges occur with declining relative frequency. Confidence in a match would thereby increase rather than decrease.

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