The Future of Photovoltaics Manufacturing in the United States Summary of Two Symposia (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Panel V: Building a Solar PV Roadmap
Panel V: Building a Solar PV Roadmap
Pages 194-205
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From page 194... ...
BUILDING A SOLAR ROADMAP Ken Zweibel George Washington University Professor Zweibel said that the purposes of building a roadmap for the photovoltaic industry had been well stated: to accelerate PV progress to meet critical national needs, do so in a cost-effective manner, and reduce deployment risks. "If we're going to be deploying terawatts of renewable energy," he said, "including terawatts of solar energy, we want to do that as robustly and cost-effectively as possible." And a roadmap capable of guiding robust deployment, he said, would need to address both technology push and market pull.
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From page 195... ...
We are just getting on the first step of the stairs with leading PV options like CdTe, CIS, and even crystalline silicon." He suggested, therefore, that the first solar roadmap be designed to help the Congress, DoE, and the new administration understand the immediacy of the solar opportunity in existing technologies. These technologies have already proven they can reduce costs steadily to levels appropriate for cost-competitive electricity.
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From page 196... ...
SOURCE: Ken Zweibel, Presentation at July 29, 2009, National Academies Symposium on "State and Regional Innovation Initiatives -- Partnering for Photovoltaics Manufacturing in the United States." PROC-2-Figure16 now.eps vector editable R01568 of $2 a watt seems certain. I want to bite my tongue when I say that, but enough people have said it that it seems to be coming for a big installed system." He mentioned advertisements by solar installers already offering $3 a watt at installations of megawatt size, and said that progress to $1.50 or even $1.25 a watt seems possible with existing technologies.
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From page 197... ...
The main funding would go to the first level, and would include existing EERE-supported commercial technologies with proven potential to make low-cost goals. These include crystalline silicon PV, cadmium telluride, copperindium-selenide (CIS)
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From page 198... ...
If you go talk to 100 PV scientists who helped make this industry what it is today," he concluded, "they will say this: that the government just wants far-out ideas. I believe that is because the key decision makers are not sophisticated in PV and have not been provided with the most critical insights about past successes." OBSERVATIONS ON BUILDING A PV ROADMAP PANEL Doug Rose SunPower Dr.
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From page 199... ...
After declining steadily, cost increased briefly around 2007-2008 because worldwide demand rose faster than the output of the polysilicon industry. A healthy consequence, however, was that it caused the industry to be more efficient with silicon use and be innovative and drive down cost in the balance-of-system portion.
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From page 200... ...
Within each of the major categories, multiple companies are using different technology approaches, and roadmaps that tried to normalize these would discourage competition and innovation. In c-Si, for example, some companies are using variations on the legacy cell architecture and others are using disruptive approaches such as all-back-contact or hetero-junctions.
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From page 201... ...
For traditional c-Si, the semiconductor portion that is similar to IC processing is only about 11 percent of the value chain, and there are a lot of innovations in the rest of value chain. Then he described multiple and fastchanging approaches, such as how to optimize efficiency and module size for different applications, and how to cut wafers -- by improvement of wire saws or a new cleave processes with no material loss.
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From page 202... ...
Market development will have the biggest impact. Local markets with multiyear demand drive local module manufacturing and installation, and those areas have the majority of the jobs in the value chain.
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From page 203... ...
We welcome participation of the federal government and various political constituencies who want to support that, and we will make sure that the money will be as well spent as possible." Early PV Roadmaps Discussants noted that the topic of a PV industry roadmap was not new; an early version was generated in 2002.
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From page 204... ...
Gay of Applied Materials said that one response to that offer was to say that "we need long-term consistency, and we need predictability in government policy." He said that, for example, PV could contribute a certain percentage to the energy base by a given year as long as there is predictability, and if a roadmap helps us quantify the value of distributed generation, time of day opportunities, and other industry targets. With a solid business case and continuity of policy, he said, banks will finance PV.
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From page 205... ...
The Central Importance of Market Pull Dr. Gay added that while the discussion had focused on the technology roadmap, the central issue for the PV industry was really market pull.
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