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Panel IV: Economics of Photovoltaics in the United States
Pages 84-99

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From page 84...
... "And they are quite different," he noted, "because we are much more competitive than our production volume would indicate." He said he would also make the "somewhat controversial" point that government policy in each region has been the most important determinant of the state of photovoltaics worldwide. He summarized this country's position by saying that "the United States trails in manufacturing modules and in installing modules." Of world market PV demand of 5.95 gigawatts in 2008, Spain has installed 2.46 GW of capacity, Germany 1.86 GW, and the U.S.
From page 85...
... "There are a number of technologies in PV," he said, "and the United States has someone in a leadership role in each: crystalline silicon, SunPower; cadmium telluride, First Solar; thin-film or amorphous silicon, Unisolar and Applied Materials; and copper indium diselenide alloys (CIS) , Solyndra, and many start-ups.
From page 86...
... So every region can be clearly defined by what its government technology program emphasized or left out." He noted that the original thin-film R&D partnerships (e.g., the Thin Film PV Partnership at NREL) pursued product development through every step: materials research, solar cells, module development, process area scale-up, pilot production, reliability testing, and first-time manufacturing.
From page 87...
... Cadmium telluride has advanced further, but still awaits understanding on a foundational level. Much research can still be done, he said, to accelerate these new technologies down their learning curve.
From page 88...
... FINANCING PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE UNITED STATES Steve O'Rourke Deutsche Bank Securities Mr. O'Rourke said he would discuss the photovoltaic industry from a financial perspective.
From page 89...
... The United States has very little domestic manufacturing between polysilicon and the module "Manufacturing migrates to where companies are most profitable," he said, "and the single biggest issue in this analysis is taxes." Continuing downstream to solar PV energy generation, he said, one sees a small market in the United States. "If we define the efficacy of incentive programs based on the size of the market," he said, "we have a problem.
From page 90...
... That is difficult to overcome here." He went through the same exercise for Germany, finding declines in net margins, with taxes as the primary impact. "You often need a negative tax rate to make manufacturing work in the United States," he said.
From page 91...
... They are simple, and easily built into financing arrangements. If the base case were supplemented with a very modest feed-in tariff, on top of what would be paid for the power under a power purchase agreement, the ROI begins to resemble the figures seen under feed-in tariffs in Germany and Spain today.
From page 92...
... Although he cited some uncertainties in this overall analysis, he suggested that the major issues surrounding PV energy could be solved, including expanding the market and using structured finance to solve the ROI, cash flow, and primary risk issues.
From page 93...
... But that's a whole different discussion." THE TOLEDO, OHIO, SOLAR CLUSTER Norman Johnston Solar Fields LLC, Calyxo GmbH, and Ohio Advanced Energy (OAE)
From page 94...
... Johnston formalized its identity and mission as the Northwest Ohio Alternative Energy, or NOAE. This title has now broadened into Ohio Advanced Energy, or OAE, a business trade association promoting the interests of advanced and renewable technology industries statewide.
From page 95...
... For example, National Wind LLC recently announced the formation of Northwest Ohio Wind Energy LLC that plans to develop 300 MW of community-owned wind power projects. Half the renewable energy -- about 800 MW -- is to be provided by Ohio assets.
From page 96...
... A typical home in Los Angeles, he said, needs only 234 square feet of roof space to meet one-half its typical electricity needs using a solar power system with a conservative 12 percent conversion efficiency. A typical home in Maine would need just 25 percent more roof space.
From page 97...
... The projected number of jobs created per megawatt of PV power, he said, is 15, compared with 4.8 jobs for geothermal energy, 4.2 for biomassdedicated steam, and 3.4 for wind power. He also described the economic ripple effect of a PV solar business chain that could include building construction with advanced glass, a 100 MW solar module plant employing 650 people, construction of the plant employing 250 people, solar fields connected to the grid, and new homes with fiberglass insulation.
From page 98...
... Utilities would be able to make use of tax credits, private investors could use grants or tax credits, and additional support is available from the Ohio Dept of Development to build solar farms. He listed a community of local companies capable of building complete solar farms, including the modules, installation, glass, R&D, land reclamation, contracting, frames, electrical systems, and inverter.
From page 99...
... We should not forget that we have no PV R&D program in the United States with the kind of leverage we need to move these technologies forward." He said he was referring to established technologies: crystalline silicon, amorphous silicon, thin-film microcrystalline silicon, cadmium telluride, and copper indium diselenide. "I'm not talking about plastic solar cells," he said, "or 5th-generation solar cells that are in proposals from single professors at various universities playing with beakers.


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