Driving and the Built Environment The Effects of Compact Development on Motorized Travel, Energy Use, and CO2 Emissions -- Special Report 298 (2009) / Chapter Skim
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4 Future Residential Development Patterns
4 Future Residential Development Patterns
Pages 106-143
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From page 106... ...
The discussion then turns to best estimates of new housing units needed by 2030 and 2050, some of which could be developed at higher densities. These estimates form the basis for the scenarios developed in the next chapter to estimate potential effects on vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
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From page 107... ...
and because some housing units are torn down and replaced every year. Demographic and economic trends, particularly the retirement of the baby boom generation, the increasing importance of immigrants, and higher energy prices, could result in a larger share of these new units being built in more compact, mixed-use developments.
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From page 108... ...
Source: Pitkin and Myers 2008, Table 4. the general principle that future housing development demand is shaped by growth at the margin rather than by the average growth in new households.2 These effects could represent an important opportunity for shifts to denser development patterns as boomers downsize and move to smaller housing units and possibly to more central, walkable locations (Myers and Gearin 2001)
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From page 109... ...
. As yet there is little evidence from current retirees of any net shift of population toward central cities, nor has the amount of new construction been sufficient to indicate a structural shift in the location of new urban development (Engelhardt 2006; Pitkin and Myers 2008)
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From page 110... ...
Immigrant populations will also play an important role in future housing demand and provide another opportunity for denser development patterns. Immigration levels increased sharply between 1997 and 2006 to an average annual net flow of about 1.16 million per year, with the result that the foreign-born share of the U.S.
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From page 111... ...
. The housing patterns of foreign-born householders, Hispanic and non-Hispanic alike, differ substantially from those of the native born, in part reflecting the greater propensity of immigrant populations to locate in central cities.
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From page 112... ...
For example, a study of immigrant populations in California, where the foreign-born population now represents more than one-quarter (26 percent) of the total, found that recent immigrants, regardless of race or ethnicity, are significantly more likely to commute by transit than are native-born adults of a similar race or ethnicity, controlling for other determinants of mode choice (Blumenberg and Shiki 2007)
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From page 113... ...
Although young adults who are entering the housing market are less numerous than the baby boom generation, they appear to exhibit a stronger preference than their predecessors for urban living (Pitkin and Myers 2008)
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From page 114... ...
. High Energy Prices The demand for more compact development might also be encouraged by a future that could include sustained higher energy costs or the lingering effects of the current subprime mortgage crisis.4 W hat if, for example, higher energy prices persist -- both gasoline prices at the pump and residential heating and cooling costs -- or a significant carbon tax is imposed to reduce GHG emissions?
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From page 115... ...
The substantially larger long-term effect is attributed to the ability of consumers to make more significant changes, such as purchasing more fuel-efficient vehicles and moving jobs or residences or both to 6 On the basis of a sample of California freeways, CBO found that between 2003 and 2006, freeway drivers adjusted to higher gasoline prices by making fewer trips and by driving more slowly. Every 50 cent increase in price resulted in about a 0.7 percent decline in weekday freeway trips in areas where rail transit was available (CBO 2008b)
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From page 116... ...
Moreover, because of more stringent CAFE standards promulgated as part of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which require manufacturers to increase the fuel-efficiency of passenger vehicles to an average of at least 35 miles per gallon by 2020, CBO concludes that carbon taxes on CO2 emissions envisioned in current climate change legislation would probably have little or no effect on average fuel economy (CBO 2008a) .8 Nevertheless, were it politically feasible, raising gasoline prices would encourage motorists to drive less.
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From page 117... ...
states from 1966 through 2004 on VMT, fuel intensity, real fuel prices, real per capita income, population, and urbanization, among other variables, Small and Van Dender (2007a; 2007b) estimate the price elasticity of gasoline as well as its two components.9 They find that the shortterm10 price elasticity of gasoline is about −0.074; that is, if the price of gasoline doubles (increases by 100 percent)
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From page 118... ...
If energy prices were to rise significantly and stay at these levels, then reducing travel and relocating to a more dense location where many destinations were closer and alternatives to driving more numerous would be a rational response. Nevertheless, as long as real income continues to rise, transportation costs will represent a relatively small share of consumer and business budgets and thus will continue to be just one of many factors that drive residential and business location decisions.12 forecasting the demand for new housing If the implications of sustained higher fuel prices for future housing demand are uncertain and seem likely to be modest, the implications of the aging of the population and continued immigration for the total number of housing units are substantial and more readily quantified.
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From page 119... ...
was 0.4 percent. The authors project net replacement rates substantially below current levels, or about 0.2 percent annually (Pitkin 13 Pitkin and Myers (2008)
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From page 120... ...
Their forecast also reflects the rapid increase in one-person households and greater demand for smaller housing units, which, in their judgment, will favor adaptive splitting and reuse of existing housing units rather than replacements in new locations.15 Another well-known forecaster of housing demand, Nelson (2004; 2006) , closely matches the estimates of new housing units by Zeng et al.
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From page 121... ...
is 2005 (124 million housing units from the American Housing Survey)
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From page 122... ...
The maturity and durability of metropolitan development patterns help explain why policies to change land use have incremental effects that only cumulate over a long time frame. Local Zoning Regulations Local zoning regulations are a significant impediment to more compact, mixed-use development in many U.S.
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From page 123... ...
As they evolved, zoning regulations also operated to reinforce economic and racial separation. Exclusionary zoning in wealthier communities restricted multifamily housing, for example, by establishing minimum lot sizes or housing square footage, which had the effect of keeping housing prices high and thus excluding lower-income families (NRC 1999; Pendall et al.
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From page 124... ...
. In contrast, only 25 percent of renter-occupied housing units, which represent 32 percent of total occupied housing units, are detached single-family units.
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From page 125... ...
. TOD housing projects averaged 44 percent fewer trips than estimated by the ITE manual.19 The researchers recommend that both traffic impact fees and parking requirements be reevaluated, potentially reducing the development costs of many TODs (Cervero and Arrington 2008, 1)
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From page 126... ...
. For developers that actually proposed more compact developments and were granted variances, more than 80 percent of the modifications involved reduced density, higher than any other category and signaling strong resistance to this design feature.22 If regulations could be relaxed, developers identified close-in suburbs rather than the metropolitan fringe as areas with the most potential for more compact development.
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From page 127... ...
compare sales transactions and characteristics of homes in compact developments in four regionally 23 Many of these surveys have been conducted by the National Association of Realtors and Smart Growth America, which advocates for more compact development. They have revealed high levels of support for more transit- and pedestrian-friendly communities, primarily in response to growing congestion and commute times.
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From page 128... ...
The results indicate that compact developments that increase density by reducing lot sizes but retain singlefamily housing may have greater appeal to homeowners. 25 Using a multilevel data set that combines individual household information with neighborhood contextual variables drawn from the 2002 American Housing Survey and the 2000 census, Yang examines the effects of block and neighborhood housing density, land use mix, mix of housing structure types, and street network connectivity on residents' rating of neighborhood satisfaction in Portland compared with Charlotte.
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From page 129... ...
Focusing on New Housing Although the longevity of existing housing slows the process of recycling existing units into more compact developments, substantial progress can be made by simply focusing on new housing units, built either in new neighborhoods or as strategic infill in existing neighborhoods (e.g., in inner suburbs or near major transit stops and along major highway corridors or interchanges)
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From page 130... ...
Broader growth management initiatives, such as urban growth boundaries and greenway corridors at the metropolitan area fringe, offer a more comprehensive strategy to help contain the growth of 27 O verlay districts are a planning tool providing for special zoning requirements that are an exception to the underlying zoning and are tailored to the characteristics of a particular area (e.g., special architectural character) or complementary to a particular public policy (e.g., higher-density building near rail transit stations)
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From page 131... ...
One of the approaches used to provide a higher level of urban design while maintaining the underlying zoning is to use overlay zones targeting specific development characteristics. A good example is Portland, Oregon's, Light Rail Transit Station Zone (Portland Metro 2000)
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From page 132... ...
Here too, though, when such policies are imposed by local communities in isolation, growth may simply leapfrog into exurban areas beyond local urban growth or greenbelt boundaries. Successful implementation of policies aimed at steering new growth into areas of existing development without creating such development elsewhere in a region requires a strong regional or state role in land use planning (Downs 2004)
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From page 133... ...
metropolitan areas found that urban containment programs and measures to control new development, such as growth boundaries or building caps and moratoriums, are far less pervasive than zoning regulations and comprehensive planning (Pendall et al.
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From page 134... ...
Making Compact, Mixed-Use Developments More Attractive to Developers and Lenders Another approach for increasing support for compact, mixed-use developments is to cater to households that have indicated support for such developments. This is a long-term, iterative process, however; increasing supply ought to increase support, but support is needed 31 SB-375 directs the California Air Resources Board to set targets for reducing GHG emissions attributable to VMT for California's 18 metropolitan planning organizations.
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From page 135... ...
revealed that lenders are not averse to more compact developments as long as such developments are not expressly prohibited by local zoning and are not the first such development in an area. The presence of profitable existing compact developments in a local market and evidence of other supporting public and private investments (e.g., transit)
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From page 136... ...
As part of the movement toward more context-sensitive design,32 strategies such as traffic calming, which has been used for many decades, and "complete streets," a more recent policy and design approach, are oriented toward serving the needs of all users, not just vehicular traffic, and have begun to take hold. Traffic calming, which is appropriate for new as well as existing developments, is aimed at slowing traffic speeds in residential neighborhoods and near schools through self-enforcing physical devices.33 Complete streets are roadways designed and operated for the safety and access of all users, including pedestrians and bicyclists, as well as motorists.34 Use of street grid patterns in new developments, rather than cul-de-sacs, improves street connectivity and access to neighborhood commercial uses where they exist.
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From page 137... ...
The aging of the population, in particular the aging of the baby boom generation, will have a profound impact on the housing market for many decades once the leading edge of the boomers passes the age of 65 in 2010. The boomers will begin to sell off their large supply of 35 Portland's maximum allowed parking spaces ordinance can be viewed online at www.
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From page 138... ...
Whether they would move jobs or residences to reduce travel and energy costs has not been observed because high energy prices have not persisted. As long as incomes continue to rise, however, and transportation costs remain a relatively small share of household budgets on average, high energy prices will be only one of many factors that drive residential and employment location decisions.
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From page 139... ...
But land use policies aimed at effecting sweeping changes in metropolitan area development patterns are likely to be slowed by political resistance from existing homeowners and local governments that reflect their interests, a lack of metropolitan and state government initiatives that could provide incentives on a large enough scale to counter local resistance, and the durability and value of the existing housing stock itself. The greatest opportunities for building more compact, mixeduse developments are likely to lie in new housing construction and replacement units in areas already experiencing density increases, such as inner suburbs and developments near transit stops and along major highway corridors or interchanges.
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From page 140... ...
2005. Towards a Climate-Friendly Built Environment.
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From page 141... ...
2006. Housing Trends Among Baby Boomers.
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From page 142... ...
2000. Light Rail Transit Station Zone.
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From page 143... ...
2005. Special Report 282: Does the Built Environment Influence Physical Activity?
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