Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
5 Recommendations for Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change Research
5 Recommendations for Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change Research
Pages 151-180
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 151... ...
argue for a new kind of climate change science enterprise, one that builds on the strengths of existing activities and • Focuses not only on improving understanding, but helps to inform solutions for problems at local, regional, national, and global levels; • Integrates diverse kinds of knowledge and explicitly engages the social, eco logical, physical, health, and engineering sciences; • Emphasizes coupled human-environment systems rather than individual hu man or environmental systems in isolation; • Evaluates the implications of particular choices across sectors and scales so as to maximize co-benefits, avoid unintended consequences, and understand net effects across different areas of decision making; • Develops and employs decision-support resources and tools that make scien tific knowledge useful and accessible to decision makers; • Focuses, where appropriate, on place-based analyses to support decision making in specific locations or regions, because the dynamics of both human and environmental systems play out in different ways in different places and decisions must be context-specific; and • Supports adaptive decision making and risk management in the face of inevi table uncertainty by remaining flexible and adaptive and regularly assessing and updating research priorities. These points, and the discussion in the preceding chapters, lead to the following conclusion.
|
From page 152... ...
Given this complexity, understanding climate change, its impacts, and potential responses inherently requires integration of knowledge bases from different areas of the physical, biological, social, health, and engineering sciences. Science that supports effective responses to climate change also will require integration of information across spatial and temporal scales.
|
From page 153... ...
Achieving better integration will require significant increases in interdisciplinary science capacity among scientists, managers, and decision makers. It will require changes in cultures within and actions across a range of institutions, including universities, government, the private sector, research institutes, professional societies, and other nongovernmental organizations, including the National Research Council.
|
From page 154... ...
. Climate Change Research Needs to Be a Flexible Enterprise, Able to Respond to Changing Knowledge Needs and Support Adaptive Risk Management and Iterative Decision Making As climate change progresses, past climate conditions and human experiences will serve as less and less reliable guides for decision makers (see Chapter 3 and also NRC, 2009g)
|
From page 155... ...
Recommendation 1: The nation's climate change research enterprise should include and integrate disciplinary and interdisciplinary research across the physical, social, biological, health, and engineering sciences; focus on fundamental, use-inspired research that contributes to both improved understanding and more effective decision making; and be flexible in identifying and pursuing emerging research challenges. SETTING PRIORITIES Recommendation 1 calls for a broad, integrative research program to assist the nation in understanding climate change and in supporting well-crafted and coordinated opportunities to adapt to and limit the magnitude of climate change.
|
From page 156... ...
. Given these detailed, well-established processes, this panel can contribute to priority setting only at a comparably coarse level -- for example, by suggesting the high-level research themes discussed in Chapter 4.
|
From page 157... ...
Interactions between decision makers and scientists have the additional benefits of enhancing the trust decision makers place in the scientific process and ensuring that researchers use actual input from decision makers, rather than educated guesswork, to help identify and prioritize research topics.
|
From page 158... ...
INFRASTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAM Scientific progress in measuring climate change, attributing it to human activities, projecting future changes, and informing decisions about how to respond has and will continue to rely on significant investments in a wide range of global observational programs and modeling efforts. As noted in Chapter 4, these efforts are limited in part by infrastructure, especially the lack of a comprehensive, integrated climate observing system and of reliable, detailed projections of climate and climate-related changes at regional and local scales.
|
From page 159... ...
Unfortunately, many of the critical observational assets needed to support climate research and climate change responses are either in decline or seriously underdeveloped, and the data that are being collected are not always managed as effectively or used as widely as they could be. A number of specific steps are needed to rectify this situation and develop a coordinated, comprehensive, and integrated climate observing system.
|
From page 160... ...
In addition to a robust and flexible network of remote and in situ assets to monitor physical, chemical, and biological changes, observations and data sets from a wide range of human systems are needed. Observations of emission trends and the effectiveness of various climate policies and action plans are particularly important for informing actions taken to limit the magnitude of future climate change, while observations of climate change impacts at regional to local scales are particularly important for informing adaptation decisions.
|
From page 161... ...
Finally, the system should allow ready access to data by a wide range of users, including decision makers. This will require the federal climate change program to work closely with programs involved in informing and supporting effective responses to climate change.
|
From page 162... ...
As with the integrated climate observing system -- and perhaps more so, given the highly technical and interdisciplinary nature of many model development activities -- the federal climate change research program is the logical entity for coordinating and integrating these development efforts. Input and buy-in will be needed from its partner agencies, action-oriented response programs, and other stakeholders.
|
From page 163... ...
. Most of these reviews have praised the USGCRP for its support and facilitation of major advances in our understanding of the natural science aspects of global change, including the physical climate system, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, and ecosystems, and also for supporting national and international scientific assessments.
|
From page 164... ...
Moreover, without strong coordination, leadership, and buy-in from the full range of federal agencies affected by climate change, the program has been limited in its ability to support the evolving needs for climate science, including research that could support more effective responses to climate change. Additionally, as discussed in the next section of the chapter, the activities of the USGCRP have not been very well coordinated with the Climate Change Technology Program (NRC, 2007f, 2009k)
|
From page 165... ...
For climate change research, a consolidated agency would facilitate coordination and allow for priority setting based on a systematic analysis, such as the seven research themes identified in Chapter 4. Neglected high-priority areas could thus be allocated the resources needed to move them forward.
|
From page 166... ...
In fact, a careful reading of the Global Change Research Act of 1990 indicates that the program was intended to accomplish many of the goals identified in this report. The main disadvantages of a continuation of the USGCRP are the weaknesses highlighted in the previous subsection.
|
From page 167... ...
Next Steps for the USGCRP A careful reading of the Global Change Research Act indicates that the legislation provides most of the necessary authority for implementing a strategically integrated climate change research program (see Appendix E)
|
From page 168... ...
The relative ease with which the USGCRP structure can integrate new agencies or departments is a key advantage over a single consolidated entity or agency. Likewise, some of the traditional research and mission agencies could be more actively involved in engaging with decision makers to help shape the program's scientific agenda and ensure the results are used effectively.
|
From page 169... ...
Mechanisms are also needed to ensure that critical areas of research that are currently underrepresented in federal agency activities receive appropriate attention. Finally -- and perhaps most difficult -- program managers need to have the authority, willingness, and capability to emphasize the interdisciplinary, decision-relevant science needed to both improve understanding and support effective responses to climate change.
|
From page 170... ...
These modifications are described in the paragraphs above and include • An expanded mission that includes both understanding climate change and supporting effective decisions and actions taken to respond to climate change; • Establishing a wide range of activities and mechanisms to support two-way flows of information between science and decision making, including im proved mechanisms for input from decision makers and other stakeholders on research priorities; • Establishing more effective mechanisms for identifying and addressing gaps and weaknesses in climate research, as well as the barriers that give rise to such gaps; • High-level leadership both within the program and among its partner agen cies; and • Budgeting oversight and authority.
|
From page 171... ...
The scientific enterprise is also inherently local to global in scope -- scientific contributions to understanding or responding to climate change appear in international journals, get assessed by international scientific bodies, and contribute to improved understanding and responses to climate change worldwide. The international research community has established a number of scientific programs to coordinate and facilitate international participation in global change research.
|
From page 172... ...
Climate change science conducted in the United States can thus play an essential role in improving the knowledge of and scientific capacity to respond to climate challenges in the developing areas of the world, where knowledge about possible responses to climate change is much more limited. National and international coordination are essential, but decision-relevant research is often focused at regional and local scales.
|
From page 173... ...
Partnerships with Programs to Limit, Adapt to, and Inform Decisions Makers About Climate Change As discussed in Chapters 3 and 4, climate change science can make a wide variety of contributions to action-oriented programs that focus on responses to climate change. Working collaboratively with action-oriented programs, both at the federal level and across the country, would help response programs take more effective actions and would help the federal climate change research program ensure that its research activities support effective decision making, in addition to improving fundamental understanding.
|
From page 174... ...
As noted in Chapter 4, an effective national research effort on limiting the magnitude of climate change will require integration of knowledge across a wide range of fields and collaboration with engineers, policy makers, and others involved in developing and implementing actions to limit climate change. However, collaboration and linkages between the USGCRP and existing programs relevant to limiting climate change -- most notably the Climate Change Technology Program -- are currently weak (NRC, 2009k)
|
From page 175... ...
recommends that a national adaptation strategy be established to engage decision makers, stakeholders, and researchers at all levels in developing and implementing adaptation plans. The USGCRP and other elements of the nation's climate change science research enterprise will be essential partners in the success of these adaptation efforts.
|
From page 176... ...
The recent NRC report Restructuring Federal Climate Research (NRC, 2009k) called for the USGCRP to begin planning a comprehensive national assessment of climate change impacts, adaptation options, and actions to reduce climate forcing, as called for in the Global Change Research Act, and it is encouraging that planning for such an activity is now under way.
|
From page 177... ...
Moreover, the more integrative and decision-relevant research program described in Chapter 4 will require expanded intellectual capacity in several previously neglected fields as well as in interdisciplinary research areas. It will also require greater intellectual capacity among state, local, and national government agencies, universities, and other public and private research labs, as well as among science managers coordinating efforts to advance the science of climate change.
|
From page 178... ...
Likewise, organizational changes in advice-giving bodies (such as the NRC) may help by enabling them to emphasize the integrative nature of climate change science when providing advice for the government and the larger science community.
|
From page 179... ...
Climate researchers and research managers will also need training in decision-support and outreach activities needed to shape a decision-relevant science agenda. In addition, growing demands for climate information will require more people with skills and practice in effective communication, science-policy interaction, and activities at the interface between research and decision making.
|
From page 180... ...
Moreover, climate change is not just an environmental problem; it is a sustainability challenge that affects and interacts with other environmental changes and efforts to provide food, energy, water, shelter, and other fundamental needs of people today and in the future. In response to the risks posed by climate change, actions are now being taken both to limit the magnitude of future climate change and to adapt to its unavoidable impacts.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.