Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010) / Chapter Skim
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10 Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production
10 Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production
Pages 291-308
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From page 291... ...
The potential ability of agricultural and fishery systems to limit climate change adds yet another dimension to be considered. Questions that farmers, fishers, and other decision makers are asking or will be asking about agriculture, fisheries, and food production in the context of climate change include the following: • How will climate change affect yields?
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From page 292... ...
Finally, the chapter provides examples of a broad range of research that is needed to understand the impacts of climate change on food production systems and to develop strategies that assist in both limiting the magnitude of climate change through management practices and reducing vulnerability and increasing adaptive capacity in regions and populations in the United States and other parts of the world. CROP PRODUCTION Crop production will be influenced in multiple ways by climate change itself, as well as by our efforts to limit the magnitude of climate change and adapt to it.
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From page 293... ...
, an expected result given the range of projected climate changes and diversity of food crops around the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
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From page 294... ...
These critical factors include changes in extreme events (such as heat waves, intense rainfall, or drought) , pests and disease, and water supplies and energy use (for irrigation)
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From page 295... ...
Similar to crop production, commercial forestry will be affected by many aspects of climate change, including CO2 fertilization, changes in length of growing season, changing precipitation patterns, and pests and diseases. Models project that global timber production could increase through a poleward shift in the locations where important forest species are grown, largely as a result of longer growing seasons.
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From page 296... ...
Longer growing seasons may also extend overall forage production, as long as precipitation and soil moisture are sufficient; however, uncertainty in climate model precipitation projections makes this difficult to determine. Although CO2 enrichment stimulates production on many rangelands and pastures, it also reduces forage quality, shifts the dominant grass species toward those with lower food quality, and increases the prevalence of nonforage weeds (CCSP, 2008b; Eakin and Conley, 2002)
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From page 297... ...
, and this portends major changes in fish populations under future climate change scenarios. Successful management of fisheries will require an improved ability to forecast population fluctuations driven by climate change; this in turn demands significant new investments in research, including research on various management options (e.g., Mora et al., 2009)
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From page 298... ...
. Although such projections are based upon relatively simple models and should be treated as hypotheses, they suggest that displacements of species ranges may be sufficiently large that the fish species harvested from any given port today may change dramatically in coming decades.
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From page 299... ...
Hence, the potential impacts of acidification -- especially in combination with other climate changes on marine fisheries -- is potentially enormous, but the details remain highly uncertain (NRC, 2010f )
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From page 300... ...
SCIENCE TO SUPPORT LIMITING CLIMATE CHANGE BY MODIFYING AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY SYSTEMS Food production systems are not only affected by climate change, but also contribute to it. Agricultural activities release significant amounts of CO2, methane (CH4)
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From page 301... ...
. Typically, the projected future of global agriculture is based on intensification -- increasing the output per unit area or time -- which is typically achieved by increasing or improving inputs such as fertilizer, water, pesticides, and crop varieties, and thereby potentially reducing agricultural demands on other lands (e.g., Borlaug, 2007)
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From page 302... ...
. For example, minimizing soil tillage yields multiple benefits by increasing soil carbon storage, improving and maintaining soil structure and moisture, and reducing the need for inorganic fertilizers, as well as reducing labor, mechanization, and energy costs.
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From page 303... ...
. Integrated assessment models, which combine climate models with crop models and models of the responses of farmers and markets, have been used to simulate the impacts of climate changes on productivity and also on factors such as farm income and crop management.
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From page 304... ...
With careful analysis and institutional design, these efforts may be able to complement one another while also enhancing our ability to improve global food security. However, without such integrated analysis, various practices and policies could easily work at cross purposes, moving the global food production system further from, rather than closer to, sustainability.
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From page 305... ...
. Climate change affects all four dimensions directly or indirectly; all can be affected at the same time by nonclimatic factors such as social norms, gender roles, formal and informal institutional arrangements, economic markets, and global to local agricultural policies.
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From page 306... ...
Identifying which regions, human communities, fisheries, and crops and livestock in the United States and other parts of the world are most vulnerable to climate change, developing adaptation approaches to reduce this vulnerability, and developing and assessing options for reducing agricultural GHG emissions are critical tasks for the nation's climate change research program. Focus is also needed on the developing world, where the negative effects of climate change on agricultural and fisheries production tend to coincide with people with low adaptation capacity.
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From page 307... ...
Assess food security and vulnerability in the context of climate change. Effective adaptation will require integration of knowledge and models about environmental as well as socioeconomic systems in order to project regional food supplies and demands, understand appropriate responses, to develop institutional approaches for adapting under climate variability and climate change, and to assess implications for food security (NRC, 2009k)
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From page 308... ...
Integrated assessments would help to evaluate both trade-offs (e.g., conservation versus agriculture) and co-benefits (e.g., increasing soil carbon storage while also enhancing soil productivity and reducing erosion)
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