Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010) / Chapter Skim
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16 National and Human Security
16 National and Human Security
Pages 389-400
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From page 389... ...
. This assessment arises from concerns about how climate change directly affects military operations and regional strategic priorities, as well as the possible links between environmental scarcity and violent conflict, the role of environmental conservation and collaboration in promoting peace, and relationships between environmental quality, resource abundance, and human security.1 Questions decision makers are asking, or will be asking, about climate change and security include the following: • How will changes in the physical environment, natural resources, and human well-being influence human security, interactions, and conflicts among na tions, and the national security of the United States?
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From page 390... ...
Climate-Related Impacts on 2009 The Royal United An examination of potential climate National Security in Mexico Services Institute change impacts in Mexico and Central and Central America, Interim America, and their projected political, Report social, and security implications. Socioeconomic and Security 2009 The CNA An examination of the security Implications of Climate Corporation implications of climate change in Change in China, Conference China from Chinese, American, and Paper British Perspectives.
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From page 391... ...
Conference Research Reports are intelligence community documents summarizing the security and geopolitical implications of climate change from the perspective of a specific country. India: The Impact of Climate 2009c NIC-CR 2009-07 Change to 2030 -- Geopolitical May 2009 Implications China: The Impact of Climate 2009a NIC-CR 2009-09 Change to 2030 -- Geopolitical June 2009 Implications Russia: The Impact of Climate 2009f NIC-CR 2009-16 Change to 2030 -- Geopolitical September 2009 Implications The following NIC Commissioned Research Reports are intelligence community examinations of the security and geopolitical implications of climate change from the perspective of a specific country.
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From page 392... ...
Other examples include the effects of sea level rise and extreme events on coastal ports, navigable waterways, runways, roads, canals, or pipelines of international significance; changes in precipitation regimes that affect international river systems and ground vehicle mobility; and increases in humanitarian aid/disaster response stemming from changes in climate extremes (NRC, 2010e)
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From page 393... ...
Sea level rise, reductions in sea ice, and changes in precipitation patterns may also affect key navigation routes of military as well as commercial importance, such as the Panama and Suez canals. Summer melting of Arctic sea ice will also make the Arctic Ocean more navigable, albeit with considerable seasonal ice floes, and the U.S.
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From page 394... ...
International Relations While most discussions of climate change and security have examined the role of general environmental stress and resource scarcity on vulnerable populations and the risk of conflict, climate change also has the potential to disrupt international relations and raise security challenges through impacts on specific assets and resources. Such effects may arise as climate change increases or decreases the strategic value of resources of international significance, disrupting the basis for existing arrangements of ownership, control, or benefit sharing, or changing perceptions of national interests and threats to those interests.
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From page 395... ...
Climate change will also affect shorelines and in some cases "exclusive economic zones" and baselines used for projecting national boundaries seaward (Paskal, 2007)
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From page 396... ...
Consideration must therefore be given to data security, authentication, reliability, and transparency. In addition, as noted in Chapter 15, concerns about the possibility of unilateral implementation of solar radiation management schemes or other geoengineering approaches raise the need for improved monitoring of both GHG emissions reduction efforts and other climate intervention methods.
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From page 397... ...
. Human security scholars have examined the potential impacts of many types of environmental change, including food and water security, disaster vulnerability, land use and land degradation, urbanization and migration, the spread of infectious disease, and the associated challenges of building sustainable economic pathways out of poverty and deprivation.
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From page 398... ...
Existing scientific insight is available, and further use-inspired social science research is needed, to inform the establishment of international mechanisms for effective, verifiable, accountable, and just efforts to limit and adapt to climate change. Such mechanisms have been found to be critical to the ability of communities anywhere to pursue sustainable livelihoods, meet fundamental human needs, secure human rights, and ultimately to ensure that climate change does not disrupt the natural environment so severely that it can no longer support the adequate and safe provision of ecosystem goods and services essential to human life and well-being (MEA, 2005)
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From page 399... ...
While considerable progress has been made in monitoring GHG emissions for climate research purposes, less is known about the operational observation standards that may be needed to meet treaty monitoring and verification requirements, and this is an active area of assessment, research, and planning (NRC, 2009h)
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From page 400... ...
Moreover, new methods are needed to understand and predict interactions of climate change impacts, associated environmental changes, and social vulnerabilities, and how they are linked across regions.
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