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Appendix D: Uncertainty Terminology
Pages 491-492

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From page 491...
... . In estimating confidence, scientific assessment teams draw on information about "the strength and consistency of the observed evidence, the range and consistency of model projections, the reliability of particular models as tested by various methods, and, most importantly, the body of work addressed in earlier synthesis and assessment reports" (USGCRP, 2009)
From page 492...
... APPENdIX d TABLE D.1 Language Adopted by the IPCC to Describe Confidence About Facts or the Likelihood of an Outcome Terminology for Describing Confidence About Facts Very high confidence At least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct High confidence About 8 out of 10 chance Medium confidence About 5 out of 10 chance Low confidence About 2 out of 10 chance Very low confidence Less than 1 out of 10 chance Terminology for Describing Likelihood of an Outcome Virtually certain More than 99 chances out of 100 Extremely likely More than 95 chances out of 100 Very likely More than 90 chances out of 100 Likely More than 65 chances out of 100 More likely than not More than 50 chances out of 100 About as likely as not Between 33 and 66 chances out of 100 Unlikely Less than 33 chances out of 100 Very unlikely Less than 10 chances out of 100 Extremely unlikely Less than 5 chances out of 100 Exceptionally unlikely Less than 1 chance out of 100 SOURCE: IPCC (2007a)


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