Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010) / Chapter Skim
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4 Integrative Themes for Climate Change Research
4 Integrative Themes for Climate Change Research
Pages 91-150
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From page 91... ...
However, our analysis suggests that the most crucial research needs of the coming decades can be captured in seven crosscutting research themes, whether one is interested in sea level rise, agriculture, human health, national security, or other topics of concern. For example, nearly every chapter in Part II calls for improved understanding of human behaviors and institutions, more detailed information about projected future changes in climate, and improved methods for assessing the economic, social, and environmental costs, benefits, co-benefits, and unintended consequences of actions taken in response to climate change.
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Climate-related Human Behaviors and Institutions Research to Support Effective Responses to Climate Change 3. Vulnerability and Adaptation Analyses of Coupled Human-Environment Systems 4.
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For example, the ability to realistically simulate natural climate variations, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, has been a critical driver for, and test of, the development of climate models (see Theme 7)
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From page 94... ...
• Expand understanding of carbon cycle processes in the context of climate change and develop Earth system models that include improved representations of carbon cycle processes and feedbacks. • Improve understanding of ocean dynamics and regional rates of sea level rise.
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From page 95... ...
Sustained observations will be critical for identifying abrupt changes and other climate surprises if and when they occur, and for supporting the development of improved abrupt change simulations in climate models. Finally, since some abrupt changes or other climate surprises may result from complex interactions within or among different components of coupled human-environment systems, improved understanding is needed on multiple stresses and their potential role in future climate shifts (NRC, 2002a)
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From page 96... ...
The Cryosphere Changes in the cryosphere, especially the major ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, represent another key research area in the physical climate system. Comprehensive, simultaneous, and sustained measurements of ice sheet mass and volume changes and ice velocities are needed, along with measurements of ice thickness and bed conditions, both to quantify the current contributions of ice sheets to sea level rise (discussed below)
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From page 97... ...
Ice dynamics and thermal expansion are the main drivers of rising sea levels on a global basis, but ocean dynamics and coastal processes lead to substantial spatial variability in local and regional rates of sea level rise (see Chapters 2 and 7)
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From page 98... ...
Likewise, projections of changes in the frequency and intensity of severe storms, storm paths, floods, and droughts are critical both for water management planning and for many adaption decisions. Developing improved understanding and projections of hydrological and water resource changes will require new multiscale modeling approaches, such as nesting cloud-resolving climate models into regional weather models and then coupling these models to land surface models that are capable of simulating the hydrologic cycle, vegetation, multiple soil layers, groundwater, and stream flow.
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From page 99... ...
, changes in ocean CO2 uptake could have profound climate implications. Results from the first generation of coupled carbon-climate models suggest that the capacity of the oceans and land surface to store carbon will decrease with global warming, which would represent a positive feedback on warming (Friedlingstein et al., 2006)
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From page 100... ...
Climate variability already makes forecasting the growth of fish populations difficult, and future climate change will increase this uncertainty. There is considerable uncertainty about -- and considerable risk associated with -- the sensitivity of fish species to ocean acidification.
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From page 101... ...
Therefore, in the context of climate change, a better understanding of human behavior and of the role of institutions and organizations is as fundamental to effective decision making as a better understanding of the climate system. Such knowledge underlies the ability to solve focused problems of climate response, such as deciding how to prioritize investments in protecting coastal communities from sea level rise, choosing policies to meet federal or state targets for reducing GHG emissions, and developing better ways to help citizens understand what science can and cannot tell them about potential climate-driven water supply changes.
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From page 102... ...
• Improve understanding of human behaviors and institutional and behavioral impediments to reducing energy demand and adopting energy-efficient technologies. • Improve understanding of what leads to the adoption and implementation of international agreements on climate and other environmental issues and what forms of such agreements most effectively achieve their goals.
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From page 103... ...
For example, climate change is sometimes confused with other types of pollution or with other global atmospheric problems (especially the stratospheric ozone "hole," which some people erroneously think leads to global warming by allowing more solar radiation to enter the atmosphere) (Bostrom et al., 1994; Brechin, 2003; Kempton, 1991)
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From page 104... ...
. Improved knowledge of how individuals, groups, networks, and organizations understand climate change and make decisions for responding to environmental changes can inform the design and evaluation of tools that better support decision making (NRC, 2009g)
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From page 105... ...
, and demand for beachfront homes increases vulnerability and shapes adaptation options related to sea level rise, storm surges, and other coastal impacts. Considerable research on consumption decision making has been carried out in economics, psychology, sociology, anthropology, and geography (NRC, 1997a, 2005a)
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From page 106... ...
To evaluate the effectiveness of policies or other actions designed to limit the magnitude of climate change, increased understanding is needed about both the elasticity of climate drivers -- the extent to which changes in drivers produce changes in climate impacts -- and the plasticity of drivers, or the ease with which the driver can be changed by policy interventions (York et al., 2002)
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From page 107... ...
THEME 3: VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ANALYSES OF COUPLED HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT SYSTEMS Not all people, activities, environments, and places are equally vulnerable1 or resilient to the impacts of climate change. Identification of differences in vulnerability across space and time is both a pivotal research issue and a critical way in which scientific research can provide input to decision makers as they make plans to adapt to climate 1 Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse ef fects of climate change, including changes in climate variability and extremes.
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From page 108... ...
. A number of climate and climate-related processes have the potential to damage human and environmental systems in the coastal zone, including sea level rise; saltwater intrusion; storm surge and damages from flooding, inundation, and erosion; changes in the number and strength of coastal storms; and overall changes in precipitation amounts and intensity.
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From page 109... ...
Vulnerability assessments of human, social, physical, and biological resources in the coastal zone can help decision makers identify the places and people that are most vulnerable to climate change and help them to identify effective steps that can be taken to reduce vulnerability or increase adaptive capacity. To help coastal managers and other decision makers assess risks, evaluate trade-offs, and make adaptation decisions, they need a scientific research program that improves understanding and projections of sea level rise and other climate change impacts at regional scales, integrates this understanding with improved understanding or nonclimatic changes relevant to decision making, identifies and evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of different adaptation options, and facilitates ongoing assessment and monitoring.
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• Advance understanding of how climate change will affect transportation systems and how to reduce vulnerability to these impacts. • Develop improved vulnerability assessments for regions of importance in terms of military operations and infrastructure.
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Such analyses consider both the natural characteristics and the human and social characteristics of a system, evaluate the consequences of climate change and other stresses acting on the integrated system, and explore the potential actions that could be taken to reduce the negative impacts of these consequences, including the trade-offs among efforts to reduce vulnerability, enhance resilience, or improve adaptive capacity (see Figure 4.1) (Eakin and Luers, 2006; Kasperson et al., 2009; Turner et al., 2003a)
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From page 112... ...
. Integrated vulnerability analyses also allow improved understanding and identification of areas in which climate change works in combination with other disturbances or decisions (e.g., land-management practices)
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, there is little empirical research on the vulnerability of places, communities, economies, and ecological systems in the United States to climate change, nor is there much empirically grounded understanding of the range of adaptation options and associated constraints (Moser, 2009a; NRC, 2010a)
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Progress here will rely on improved understanding of human behavior relevant to adaptation; institutional barriers to adaptation; political and social acceptability of adaptation options; their economic implications; and technological, infrastructure, and policy challenges involved in making certain adaptations. THEME 4: RESEARCH TO SUPPORT STRATEGIES FOR LIMITING CLIMATE CHANGE Decisions about how to limit the magnitude of climate change, by how much, and by when demand input from research activities that span the physical, biological, and social science disciplines as well as engineering and public health.
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The companion report Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (NRC, 2010c) suggests that the U.S.
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From page 116... ...
• Improve understanding of links between air quality and climate change and develop strategies that can limit the magnitude of climate change while improving air quality. • Improve understanding of the potential efficacy and unintended consequences of solar radiation management approaches and direct air capture of CO2, provided that this research does not detract from other important research areas.
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From page 117... ...
. Thus, while the following subsections describe a number of key research needs related to limiting the magnitude of future climate change, progress in many other research areas will also be needed.
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This and other codependencies between the energy and transportation sectors underscore the need for an integrated, holistic national approach to limit the magnitude of future climate change as well as related research investments. Widespread adoption of new transportation or energy technologies would also demand significant restructuring of the nation's existing transportation and energy infrastructure, and scientific and engineering research will play an important role in optimizing that design.
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. Institutions and Decision Making The 20th century saw immense social and cultural changes, many of which -- such as changes in living patterns and automobile use -- have had major implications for climate change.
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For example, individual and household food choices, the layout of communities, and the design of supply chains all have effects on climate. Understanding social and cultural changes is important for projecting future climate change, and, in some cases, these changes may provide substantial leverage points for reducing climate change.
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The research needs highlighted in this report are intended to both improve fundamental understanding of and support effective decision making about climate change. As explored in the companion report Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (NRC, 2010b)
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• Improve knowledge and decision-support capabilities for all levels of governance in response to the challenges associated with sea level rise. • Develop effective decision-support tools and approaches for decision making under uncertainty, especially when multiple governance units may be involved, for water resource management, food and fiber production issues, urban and human health issues, and other key sectors.
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The recent report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g) identified a set of basic principles of effective decision support that are applicable to the climate change arena: "(1)
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. The basic principles of effective decision support are reasonably well known (see, e.g., BOX 4.4 Seasonal Climate Forecasts For the past 20 years, the application of seasonal climate forecasts for agricultural, disaster relief, and water management decision making has yielded important lessons regarding the cre ation of climate knowledge systems for action in different parts of the world at different scales (Beller-Sims et al., 2008; Gilles and Valdivia, 2009; NRC, 1999b; Pagano et al., 2002; Vogel and O'Brien, 2006)
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From page 125... ...
Expanded research on decision support would enhance virtually all the other research called for in this report by improving the design and function of systems that seek to make climate science findings useful in adaptive management of the risks of climate change. The main research needs in this area are discussed in Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g)
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From page 126... ...
THEME 6: INTEGRATED CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEMS Nearly all of the research called for in this report either requires or would be considerably improved by a comprehensive, coordinated, and continuing set of observations -- physical, biological, and social -- about climate change, its impacts, and the consequences (both intended and unintended) of efforts to limit its magnitude or adapt to its impacts (Table 4.6)
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From page 127... ...
series of satellites deployed in the late 1990s and early 2000s provide critical input into process and climate models that have provided key insights into Artic sea ice decline, sea level rise, changes in freshwater systems, ozone changes over Antarctica, changes in solar activity, ocean ecoystem change, and changes in land use, to name just a few. Box 4.5 provides an example of a key satellite-based measurement that has promoted enhanced understanding of the physical climate system and how it is changing over time.
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From page 128... ...
. Since sea level rise is driven by a combination of ocean warming and shrinking glaciers and ice sheets (see Chapter 7)
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Box 4.5.pdf Trends (mm/year) in sea level change over 1993-2007 from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 altimeter measurements.
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presented near- and longer-term recommendations to address these troubling trends. The report outlined near-term actions meant to stem the tide of capability deterioration and continue critical data records, as well as forward-looking recommendations to establish a balanced Earth observation program designed to directly address the most urgent societal challenges (see Figure 4.3)
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From page 131... ...
was created in 1994 to merge various military and civil meteorological and environmental monitoring programs. Unfortunately, by 2005, cost overruns triggered a mandatory BOX 4.6 The Development of a Long-Term, Space-Based Earth Observation Systema "There is a crisis not only with respect to climate change .
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. Given the importance of the climate change challenge, and the recent struggles of the civilian satellite program, the climate science community should take advantage of such data sets to the extent that they can be made available for scientific purposes.
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These systems will have to be integrated and maintained for decades to realize their full potential as components of a climate observing system. The recent study Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks (NRC, 2009j)
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Census data, economic productivity and consumption data, data on health and disease patterns, insurance coverage, crop yields, hazards exposure, and public perceptions and preferences are just some of the types of information that can be relevant for developing an improved understanding of human interactions with the climate system and for answering various decision-relevant questions related to the human dimensions of climate change. Socioeconomic data are also critical for linking environmental observations with assessments of climate-related risk, vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity in human systems.
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Likewise, data on the impacts of climate change on human systems and on vulnerability and adaptation of human systems to global environmental changes are critically needed (NRC, 2009g,k)
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They simply need to be inventoried, archived, and made broadly accessible to enable the kinds of integrative analyses that are necessary for the new climate change research. A major effort is needed both to develop appropriate local data collection efforts and to coordinate them into national and global systems.
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From page 137... ...
Regular observations of the Earth system, for example, are needed to improve climate models, monitor climate and climate-related changes, assess the vulnerability of different human and environmental systems to these change, monitor the effectiveness of actions taken to limit the magnitude of climate change, warn about impending tipping points, and inform decision making. However, creating such systems and making the information available in usable formats to a broad range of researchers and decision makers involves a number of formidable challenges, such as improving linkages between human and environmental data, ensuring adequate support for data archiving and management activities, and creating improved tools for data access and dissemination.
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From page 138... ...
recommends that the federal government "expand and maintain national observation systems to provide information needed for climate decision support. These systems should link existing data on physical, ecological, social, economic, and health variables to each other and develop new data and key indicators as needed" for estimating climate change vulnerabilities and informing responses intended to limit and adapt to climate change.
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• Develop tools and approaches for understanding and predicting the impacts of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems and infrastructure. • Improve models of the response of agricultural crops, fisheries, transportation systems, and other human systems to climate and other environmental changes.
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Scenario Development Scenarios help improve understanding of the key processes and uncertainties associated with projections of future climate change. Scenarios are critical for helping decision makers establish targets or budgets for future GHG emissions and devise plans to adapt to the projected impacts of climate change in the context of changes in other human and environmental systems.
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From page 141... ...
. An advanced generation of climate models with explicit and improved representations of terrestrial and marine ecosystems, the cryosphere, and other important systems and processes, and with improved representations and linkages to models of human systems and actions, will be as important as improving model resolution for increasing the value and utility of climate and Earth system models for decision making.
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From page 142... ...
Integrated assessments -- which are done through either formal modeling or through informal linkages among relevant disciplines -- have been used to develop insights into the possible effectiveness and repercussions of specific environmental policy choices (including, but not limited to, climate change policy) and to evaluate the impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of both human and natural systems to a variety of environmental stresses.
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From page 143... ...
Enhanced integrated assessment capability, including improved representation of diverse elements of the coupled human-environment system in integrated assessment models, promises benefits across a wide range of scientific fields as well as for supporting decision making. A long-range goal of integrated assessment models is to seamlessly connect models of human activity, GHG emissions, and Earth system processes, including the impacts of climate change on human and natural systems and the feedbacks of changes in these systems on climate change.
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From page 144... ...
illustrate both the value of the method and some of the complexities in applying it. Because corn ethanol is produced from sugars created by photosynthesis, which removes CO2 from ambient air, it might be assumed that substituting corn ethanol for gasoline produced from petroleum would substantially reduce net GHG emissions.
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From page 145... ...
As discussed in Chapter 17, the current limits of benefit-cost analysis applied to global climate change decision making are substantial. A research program focused on improvements to benefit-cost analysis and other valuation approaches, especially for ecosystem services (see below)
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Such analyses can yield maps and other methods for conveying complex information in ways that can effectively engage decision makers and allow them to compare alternative decisions and their impacts on the ecosystem services of interest to them (MEA, 2005; Tallis and Kareiva, 2006)
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. Metrics and Indicators Metrics and indicators are critical tools for monitoring climate change, understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and evaluating the effectiveness of actions taken to respond to climate change.
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Certification schemes are increasingly being used to address climate change issues,
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From page 149... ...
While scientific research alone cannot determine what actions should be taken in response to climate change, it can inform, assist, and support those who must make these important decisions. The seven integrative, crosscutting research themes described in this chapter are critical elements of a climate research endeavor that seeks to both improve understanding and to provide input to and support for climate-related actions and decisions, and these themes would form a powerful foundation for an expanded climate change research enterprise.
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