Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (2010) / Chapter Skim
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7 Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed to Promote Effective Adaptation to Climate Change
7 Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed to Promote Effective Adaptation to Climate Change
Pages 203-218
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From page 203... ...
While options available to the nation for adapting to the impacts of climate change have in many cases been identified, the scientific understanding of the effectiveness of these options is lacking, given that climate change is likely to pose challenges beyond those that have been addressed in the past as adaptations to climate variability. Thus, the need for scientific and technological advances is pervasive across the field of climate change adaptation research.
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From page 204... ...
Advances in science and technology of several kinds are needed to support such analysis and assessments. Improved Information Science and technology advances to support longterm adaptive risk management regarding climate change impacts.
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From page 205... ...
Understanding possible tipping points can help to inform adaptation choices to avoid reaching such points; it can help to design observational strategies and programs to monitor system changes to provide early warning of an impending threshold in time to consider adaptation options; and in some cases it can clarify limits of adaptation, perhaps pointing to the need for structural changes such as voluntary relocation inland. Improved Knowledge of behavioral Dimensions of Adaptation Human behavior that affects prospects and avenues for adaptation.
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From page 206... ...
These gaps currently limit the ability to perform many kinds of adaptation assessments and option evaluations. Needs for fundamental science and technology advances include: improved information about climate change impacts under different assumptions about multiple driving forces and stressors, improved information about costs of impacts and both costs and benefits of adaptation options, and improved capacities to assess and represent uncertainties (Chapter 2)
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From page 207... ...
As part of monitoring the implementation of adaptation options, information needs to be gathered about the decision and regional context and the socioeconomic considerations to enable the transferability of "lessons learned" about the adaptation options. In time, such a database should be interactive, ideally offering users the opportunity to go beyond simply surveying existing answers and to ask questions about database entries and consult experts about issues not covered by those entries.
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From page 208... ...
; • Improvements in the science base for dynamic spatial ecosystem planning -- for example, in oceans and ecosystems in areas facing stress from land use changes; and • Improved maintenance of services from coastal or marine ecosystems, such as flood attenuation and water filtration. Health • Significant advances in the capacity to model health impacts of climate change, such as changes in geographic range of diseases and disease vectors; • Advances in science and technology to reduce vector populations that would otherwise benefit in some regions from climate change; • Contingency planning for responding to multiple concurrent health threats with limited public health care resources; • Analysis of alternatives for improving the resilience of health care facilities and systems to major weather events; and • Analysis of equity considerations -- who actually bears the health-related costs of climate change and receives the benefits of adaptation actions.
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From page 209... ...
Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed Agriculture • Analysis of implications of regional drying for the long-term availability of ir rigation for agriculture; • Advances in the understanding of climate change effects on pests and pathogens; • Analysis of possible roles of microinsurance in agricultural risk management; and • Cross-cutting analysis, such as impacts of heat on the productivity of agricul tural workers, impacts of higher ozone concentration on crops, and relation ship of changes in agricultural productivity to sustainability in developing countries. Energy • Improvements in the efficiency and affordability of space cooling technologies for buildings to assist adaptation to warming; • New approaches for cooling thermal electric power plants that are signifi cantly less water consumptive than most current practices; • Analysis of electricity transmission and distribution systems to determine pos sible vulnerabilities to heat waves; and • Implications of new climate change policies on energy choices, their effects, and adaptation alternatives.
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From page 210... ...
Timing issues are likely to differ among adaptation needs and options, but they include such considerations as whether adaptation now can be more participative and less expensive than emergency-based, reactive, and sudden problem solving; whether adaptation now is more likely to be placed in a broader sustainability context; and how important current uncertainties are in valuing investments in risk management. Furthermore, research is required to evaluate options for encouraging voluntary relocation from high-vulnerability areas such as retreat from vulnerable coastlines.
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From page 211... ...
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOgy ADvANCES FOR ADAPTATION MANAgEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION Climate change adaptation is not just a set of actions. It is an ongoing process of learning and adapting, both to emerging information about climate change impacts and to evolving experience with adaptation strategies and decisions.
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From page 212... ...
Best practices in adaptation management (for example, successes with mainstreaming adaptation in ongoing community and sectoral processes, including institutional structures that sustain attention to adaptation beyond the spans of attention of individual leaders, and successes in improving resilience to climate-related disasters) need to be identified, documented, and disseminated.
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From page 213... ...
For example, most adaptations to climate change considered today are extensions of existing options for adapting to climate variability or extreme events, differing only in the scope of implementation, the frequency of application, and the intensity of effort. But climate change may well exceed the range of current climate variability and extreme events; thus, novel adaptations are very likely to be needed, especially in the event of tipping points and/or abrupt changes.
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From page 214... ...
Involving a wide range of science and technology users and stakeholders in setting agen das for adaptation research. Because suitable adaptations differ according to location, sector, and affected parties, and because knowledge about adaptation is widely distributed, adaptation science and technology agendas should be informed by stakeholder interactions.
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From page 215... ...
Australia has responded to strong national concerns about climate change impacts by establishing a National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility to play a lead role, although it will not be the only source of science and technology advances for adaptation. A solution somewhere between these two approaches might
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From page 216... ...
Advances in science and technology are needed in the following areas: to support adaptation analysis and assessment, to identify and develop adaptation options, and to strengthen adaptation management and implementation. Many of these advances are needed as quickly as possible to inform such issues as: thresholds or tipping points for climate change impacts that may exceed the limits of adaptation; prospects and approaches for encouraging voluntary relocation from high-vulnerability areas; and relationships between climate change adaptation and issues of resilience and sustainability in a context of multiple threats, stresses, and opportunities.
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From page 217... ...
Major Scientific and Technological Advances Needed Conclusion: Studies of autonomous adaptation as well as planned adaptation are needed, along with monitoring and learning from ongoing experiences with adaptation in practice. A national program could prioritize these needs and also expedite advances in adaptation science and technology that have promise in reducing critical national and regional vulnerabilities to climate change impacts in the coming decades.
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