Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (2010) / Chapter Skim
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3 What Are America's Options for Adaptation?
3 What Are America's Options for Adaptation?
Pages 61-120
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From page 61... ...
Unfortunately, adaptation to climate change has been a low national priority, and very little research has been devoted to identifying and evaluating options for adaptation. In the short term, the nation can draw lessons from past experience with adaptations to climate variability, limited experience with climate change adaptation already undertaken in some regions of the world, a limited number of careful analyses of adaptation possibilities, and from an onrush of creative thinking in connection with emerging efforts to do adaptation planning.
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From page 62... ...
. Support from such diverse organizations indicates that the nation has considerable experience with planning at multiple scales and suggests that planning for climate change adaptation within the United States is likely to require coordinated public-private planning partnerships to span these scales.
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From page 63... ...
funds to strengthen buildings and develop hurricane shelters; engaged 250 stakeholders from multiple backgrounds and sectors and established the Climate Change Advisory Task Force; developed a report on adaptation strategies for the built environment and recommended developing minimum criteria standards for public investment. Working as a member of the Florida Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group, released a report to the governor on policy recommendations.
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From page 64... ...
The chapter follows with an examination of lessons that can be learned from a suite of integrated climate change adaptation planning processes under way in the United States and elsewhere. From these sectoral elements and lessons learned from early
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From page 65... ...
They often build logically on past programs that have dealt with variability and extremes, such as extreme drought in agricultural areas, heat waves, or disease outbreaks in cities. This section summarizes possible options for adapting to climate change that have been identified in each of a number of sectors, including long but not exhaustive lists of ideas as illustrations of current perspectives and knowledge.
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From page 66... ...
. Development of such long-term adaptation strategies will require experimentation (adaptive management)
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From page 67... ...
. Experimenting, modeling scenarios of alternative futures, and engaging stakeholders in transparent decision-making processes will be critical to developing long-term adaptation strategies that can successfully address the indirect effects of climate change (Carpenter et al., 2009; MEA, 2005)
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From page 68... ...
Synergies can also be developed, such as taking advantage of the diversity of predators in natural ecosystems as a component of integrated pest management in agriculture and forestry. Water Because of the widespread occurrence of both chronic and periodic water shortages, many potential adaptation strategies have been developed and tested for variations in water availability, from building dams to encouraging conservation by households and other water users (Table 3.4)
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From page 69... ...
. In cities, flooding associated with storms and sea level rise will challenge the capacity of storm drains and water and wastewater treatment facilities to handle increased flows and in extreme conditions may threaten the integrity of water supplies.
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From page 70... ...
Reducing health risks related to climate change over the longer term may require new decision-support tools and changes in other sectors that affect public health, such as urban design to minimize the urban heat island effect through greater use of trees and green spaces. Education and training programs for health care professionals have been identified as important adaptation options to build capacity to address climaterelated health needs, including postdisaster mental health needs (Frumkin et al., 2008; Jackson and Shields, 2008)
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From page 71... ...
For example, several of the major Gulf Coast highway bridges destroyed by storm surges during Hurricane Katrina have been redesigned and replaced by new bridges elevated well above anticipated future storm surges. Because most
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From page 72... ...
Planning for climate change adaptation in the nation's transportation infrastructure will require new approaches to engineering analysis, especially the use of probabilistic analysis (i.e., risk analysis based on uncertain climate changes)
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From page 73... ...
. A somewhat different issue is the vulnerability of coastal energy facilities, especially in the Gulf Coast region, to combined impacts of sea level rise, more intense storms, and land subsidence (CCSP, 2008a)
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From page 74... ...
Coastal Area vulnerabilities The key issues for adaptation to climate change in the coastal zone are the erosion and flooding that will become more pronounced with sea level rise, along with exposure to more intense severe weather events in some regions, all combined with land uses that are often extensive and valuable. In cases where these effects are projected to become more severe as climate change intensifies, a spectrum of potential adaptation options that vary in effectiveness over time are available (Table 3.8)
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From page 75... ...
; and incorporation of climate change adaptation into other state, regional, and local plans. The states also identified a number of key information needs for coastal adaptation planning, including high-resolution topography and bathymetry (CSO, 2007, 2008)
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From page 76... ...
urgency of Climate Change Planning and Institutional Readiness for Implementation Development of climate change adaptation plans has occurred most conspicuously in regions around the globe that currently experience severe climate change impacts (e.g., Alaska, Australia) or where leaders are concerned about vulnerability to impending impacts, particularly of sea level rise (e.g., Pacific Island States, Bangladesh, Maryland, Florida, California, and New York City)
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From page 77... ...
have been slow to develop comprehensive climate change adaptation plans, indicating that vulnerability, by itself, does not necessarily lead to comprehensive adaptation planning. The success of climate change planning efforts varies considerably, depending on the complexity of tasks undertaken and institutional capacity to support the actions needed.
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From page 78... ...
reduced sea ice extent, which increases the intensity of storm surges; (3) increased windiness; and (4)
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From page 79... ...
on a landscape where water management had reduced sediment delivery to a protective fringe of barrier islands and where development activities had contributed to land subsidence, making the region more vulnerable to coastal storms (NRC, 2006)
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From page 80... ...
. Similarly, in Germany, recent climate change planning to ensure food security now addresses not only agriculture but also the transportation sector and the global trade network, and several cities and states are integrating climate change adaptation plans into broader smart-growth or sustainability strategies (see the section "Integrating Adaptation Planning into Programs that Address Broader Societal Goals" in this chapter)
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From page 81... ...
. This argues for a comprehensive climate change adaptation planning effort at all scales (global, national, state, and local)
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From page 82... ...
The region also holds critical highway and rail links between the eastern and western parts of the nation. This region is at risk from sea level rise and storm surges; adaptation options need to be evaluated to identify appropriate adaptations for both short- and long term benefits to the region, while also taking national interests into account.
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From page 83... ...
projects that, by 2050, the Gulf Coast between Mobile and Galveston will see "apparent" sea level rise (actual sea level rise plus land subsidence) of 2 to 4 feet, threatening coastal systems of many kinds: communities, transportation facilities, energy facilities, ecosystems, and others (CCSP, 2008a)
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From page 84... ...
. Partly in response to heat waves in 1993 and 1994, Philadelphia developed its Hot Weather-Health Watch/Warning System (PWWS)
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From page 85... ...
Adaptive management allows flexibility for climate change programs to adjust when conditions change in unexpected ways, the adaptive plan fails to achieve desired outcomes, or program goals are modified. Adaptive management requires regulatory flexibility for local managers and decision makers to monitor outcomes and adjust appropriately (Armitage et al., 2007; West et al., 2009)
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From page 86... ...
The framework draws on expert knowledge to translate climate change projections into a portfolio of adaptation actions. The identified portfolio of actions can then be evaluated in the social, political, regulatory, and economic contexts that motivate and constrain manage ment goals and policies.
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From page 87... ...
. NGOs knowledgeable about other planning efforts and state and federal programs whose mandates were consistent with local climate change planning informed and facilitated the development of climate change adaptation plans in Keene.
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From page 88... ...
Many climate change adaptation plans emphasize either societal impacts (e.g., Gulf Coast) or ecological impacts (e.g., Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem)
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From page 89... ...
Climate change adaptation plans are particularly relevant to local populations when they incorporate programs, plans, and experience that address current climate extremes such as severe storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves (e.g., New York City, Philadelphia, United Kingdom)
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From page 90... ...
. Reforest riparian areas with native species to create shaded thermal refuges for fish species if water supply is adequate (4-4; NEC)
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From page 91... ...
Protect areas along climate gradients to provide a wide range of climate adaptation options (WWF) ; protect areas that have enduring features unlikely to be affected by climate change (e.g., high relief, limestone karst)
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From page 92... ...
. Assisted migration where appropriate: explore the establishment and growth of plant species more adapted to expected future climate conditions (4-4; CCAL; DOI-LW)
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From page 93... ...
. More Increased Allow natural fires to burn where they sustain long-term ecosystem integrity; extreme wildfire restore natural disturbance regimes (NEC; WWF)
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From page 94... ...
The suitability of each adaptation option must therefore be evaluated in the context of local conditions. Where possible, the table refers to assessments and syntheses that consider multiple adaptation options and provide references to specific studies.
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From page 95... ...
(4-2) develop cost effective strategies to address climate change through integration of models based on long-term monitoring of agricultural lands (4-3)
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From page 96... ...
Sea level rise Brackish water Backfill irrigation ditches; install tide gates to control flooding. infiltrating coastal farmland (4-1)
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From page 97... ...
Increased Climate changed- Shift grazing to new lands; shift to species and breeds more resistant to temperature: induced shifts in plant droughts and reduce animal stocking density; change feedstocks. effects on productivity and type livestock will impact livestock operations (4-3)
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From page 98... ...
; reforest with species genetically adapted or compatible with the anticipated future climate (NRC) ; find alternatives for timber (NRC)
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From page 99... ...
crops Extreme events Increased climate Produce hybrids more resistant to the diseases and pests. extremes may promote plant disease and pest outbreaks (IPCC)
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From page 100... ...
The suitability of each adaptation option must therefore be evaluated in the context of local conditions. Where possible, the table refers to assessments and syntheses that consider multiple adaptation options and provide references to specific studies.
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From page 101... ...
. Participate in water supply protection through watershed management, including protecting surface water sources and groundwater recharge zones.
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From page 102... ...
. Revise or update environmental regulations to facilitate resolution of competing demands for water in light of changing conditions (e.g., adaptive management)
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From page 103... ...
; enhance dam safety inspections and modeling and consider relocation where engineering solutions make life and property more vulnerable to extreme events (CCAWS)
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From page 104... ...
. lakes Sea level rise Saline Insert sea water barrier injection wells (to limit migration of saltwater intrusion into aquifers inland)
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From page 105... ...
The suitability of each adaptation option must therefore be evaluated in the context of local conditions. Where possible, the table refers to assessments and syntheses that consider multiple adaptation options and provide references to specific studies.
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From page 106... ...
. intensity, death Implement early warning systems and emergency response plans, including and duration medical services (J and S; Ebi; Frumkin)
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From page 107... ...
. Develop education and training programs for health professionals on the risks of and appropriate responses during heat waves (J and S; Ebi)
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From page 108... ...
. Modify water and wastewater treatment facilities, and drainage and stormwater management to take climate change into account.
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From page 109... ...
Climate Impact Possible Adaptation Action Change Federal State Local Government Private Sector NGO/Individuals Long-term sea Permanent Build or enhance levees/dikes for protection. level rise flooding of coastal Elevate critical infrastructure that is at risk for sea level rise.
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From page 110... ...
New patterns Existing airport Increase airport runway lengths. of prevailing runways may winds become less efficient; time of travel on long distance flights and transoceanic shipping may be affected Time of travel on Evaluate effects on logistics; adjust schedules.
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From page 111... ...
. More frequent Provide federal incentives to avoid development in flood plains.
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From page 112... ...
Replace at-risk roads, runways, and railroads. Sea level rise and Produce relative sea level projections under different emissions coastal erosion scenarios for each coastal region.
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From page 113... ...
with sea level coastal flooding Revise federal, state, and professional engineering guidelines to rise reflect current and anticipated future climate changes (e.g., precipitation intensity and duration curves) and require their use as a condition for federal investments in infrastructure and incorporate climate.
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From page 114... ...
Where possible, the table refers to assessments and syntheses that consider multiple adaptation options and provide references to specific studies. SOURCE: Reference citations were abbreviated as follows to conserve space: RFF-PI (Neumann and Price, 2009)
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From page 115... ...
Changes in Disruption of energy conversion Harden infrastructures to withstand increased flood, intensity, timing, and generation due to extreme wind, lightning and other storm-related stress (4-5) ; and location of events, especially major storms, consider relocation of infrastructures to less vulnerable extreme weather can affect oil and gas platforms regions in longer term (see sea level rise)
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From page 116... ...
. Sea level rise Risks to infrastructures in Conduct regional analysis of vulnerability of coastal vulnerable coastal areas energy infrastructure to sea level rise; advocate responsible land use planning and contingency planning.
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From page 117... ...
Use natural shorelines, setbacks, and buffer zones to allow inland migration of shore habitats and barrier islands over time (e.g., dunes and forested buffers mitigate storm damage and erosion)
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From page 118... ...
reach coast Increased Increased storm surge Strengthen and implement building codes that make existing intensity/ and flooding; increased buildings more resilient to storm damage along the coast. frequency wind damage; sudden Increase building "free board" above base flood elevation coastal storms coastal/shoreline alterations Identify and improve evacuation routes in low-lying areas (e.g., causeways to coastal islands)
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From page 119... ...
precipitation non-point source pollution or Improve stormwater management systems and infrastructure. eutrophication; changes in coastal hydrology Improve early warning systems for beach and shellfish closures.
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From page 120... ...
Where possible, the table refers to assessments and syntheses that consider multiple adaptation options and provide references to specific studies. SOURCE: Reference citations are abbreviated as follows to conserve space: NRC (NRC, 2007c)
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