Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (2010) / Chapter Skim
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4 Resources for Effective Climate Decisions
4 Resources for Effective Climate Decisions
Pages 123-166
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From page 123... ...
Decision tools generate results based on the assumptions and data, which will vary depending on the user. For example, models that estimate the costs of climate change that heavily discount future values tend to produce results with lower costs and less urgency for immediate action, and graphs that only show short-term trends and variability may suggest lower risks than those with longer time scales.
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From page 124... ...
of impacts from a 5 to 95 percent level. A conservative interpretation of this graph, a decision support tool in itself, might select the baseline climate, where only market impacts and the lower end of the probability of impact such that the loss of gross domestic product (GDP)
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From page 125... ...
government's decisions about emission reduction targets and adaptation policy. What the case illustrates are the enormous challenges in providing clear and useful support tools for decision makers, and the importance of transparency about the assumptions that underpin the results.
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From page 126... ...
The Basis for Decision Making in Organizations and Institutions Many tools that exist to support organizational and institutional decision making rest either implicitly or explicitly on rational choice and assumptions. The rational choice perspective sees actors making decisions in order to actualize their preferences in an efficient and calculated manner -- based mostly on an estimate of the economic costs and benefits of actions.
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From page 127... ...
. • Improve the decision tools, messages, and other products, and their use, to enable decision relevant information to be conveyed and understood in ways that enhance decision quality (e.g., models, simulations, mapping and visualization products, and websites)
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From page 128... ...
Indeed, even the use of formal decision support tools to inform decisions about climate change and other issues is embedded in cultural practices that are characteristic of some organizations, but not others. The social science perspective known as institutionalism (DiMaggio and Powell, 1983, 1991; Drori et al., 2006; Meyer and Rowan, 1977; Scott, 2001; Suddaby and Greenwood, 2005)
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From page 129... ...
A risk management approach assumes that decision support tools, whether simple graphs or complex models, provide information about the level
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Technical reports like this one contain executive summaries for just that reason: members of some audiences to which this report is directed lack the time to read the entire report, but will instead read the executive summary and will potentially make decisions based on that condensed information. DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: THEIR CHARACTERISTICS AND USES Decision tools are structured methods for evaluating the results of different decisions and provide a way of assessing the impacts, costs, and benefits or different decisions 0
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From page 131... ...
These include earth system models, impact models, various economic modeling techniques (including cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses) , integrated assessment models, and a range of other computer-based tools and products for engaging users and the public in deliberative decision processes or for helping them access and evaluate information related to alternative strategies.
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From page 132... ...
to understand range of impacts Examine the potential for adaptation to reduce impacts Economic models (e.g., cost- Estimate and analyze the costs and benefits of various effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis, policies and assumptions to limit emissions, develop costindividual choice modeling/agent- effective energy policies based models, input-output models) Understand the results of individual economic decisions about use of energy, land, and other resources Some decision tools are also highly technical, which requires training and also stakeholder engagement in the development of the tools to ensure the output is useful for decision makers.
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From page 133... ...
Policy simulations Explore the implications of alternative policies using games and heuristic methods Decision matrices and use of criteria to Structure and weigh alternative options, identify options search databases from database of available strategies (e.g., adaptation options, greenhouse gas reduction strategies) Participatory decision techniques Collective decision making (e.g., participatory GIS, structured stakeholder involvement)
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From page 134... ...
This chapter discusses decision resources that are used for addressing the following illustrative problems faced by different types of decision makers. These problems include: local level decision making reducing emissions at national and international levels; informing state level emissions reductions; informing efficiency decisions at the firm or household level; understanding impacts and informing adaptation; assessing the value of information for resource allocation; and using assessments as tools for effective climate-related decisions.
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From page 135... ...
-- graphs and maps showing temperature, precipitation, and sea level based on easily understandable best- and worst-case scenarios with confidence and probability estimates and examples of potential climate impacts (e.g., river flows, ecosystem shifts) ; FIGURE 4.2 Lake Powell before and after 2002 drought.
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From page 136... ...
. • Information on trends and patterns in GHG emissions and their drivers -- graphs or spreadsheets for major facilities, land uses, population groups, zip codes, etc., expert opinion on future trajectories and the potential impact of policies; and • Information on the economic and health impacts of climate variability and potential changes -- current costs and benefits, morbidity, and mortality in spreadsheets or tables.
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From page 137... ...
Decision Tools to Inform International and National Emission Reduction Strategies Computer simulation models provide a crucial resource for supporting many climaterelated decisions. The success of such decisions will often depend on the extent to which models can take into account the complicated interaction of physical systems such as the ocean and atmosphere, biological systems such as forests and estuaries, and societal systems such as migration, settlement patterns, and various forms of economic activity.
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From page 138... ...
on future climate have been influential internationally by informing discussions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, where the mandate to "avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate change" demands understanding the links between emissions and global and regional climate change risks. The model results informed decisions by the European Union and others to try and limit climate change below 2°C above preindustrial levels, as well as proposals by various countries, scientists, and NGOs to reduce emissions by up to 80 percent by 2050 or set targets such as 350 ppm.
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From page 139... ...
Integrated assessment models lie at the core of attempts by IPCC to link the work of Working Groups I, II, and III by using emission scenarios based on mitigation options to climate change projections and impacts. They also underpin global assessments of the costs and benefits of alternative mitigation and adaptation strategies, such as those conducted by the Stern Review (Stern, 2007)
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From page 140... ...
However, common themes emerge across all such experiments, such as the importance of beginning emission reductions in the near-term in order to reduce the possibility that sudden emission reductions will be needed in the future and to keep open the ability to decide later to hold climate changes below levels that appear especially risky. Models also differ in their treatment of uncertainty (see Box 4.2)
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From page 141... ...
Resources for Effective Climate Decisions FIGURE 4.4 This figure shows the greenhouse gas concentrations and mean surface temperature from a set of climate models across a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Such model results help show the range of emission paths that might prove consistent with a 2°C temperature limit.
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From page 142... ...
Both deterministic and stochastic models can be used to support decision analyses that address uncertainty in a variety of different ways. Integrated assessment models can describe a set of scenarios or support a probabilistic analysis where subjective probabilities are elicited
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From page 143... ...
Even with these limitations, models still can inform decisions within an iterative risk management framework by demonstrating the implications of alternative assumptions and the conclusions that will likely hold despite uncertainties, such as the risks of allowing GHG emissions to continue to increase at current rates. Further complicating matters, the economic components of models typically include key (and sometimes controversial)
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From page 144... ...
In recent years, policy simulations have begun to make use of computer models to better predict the outcomes of policy choices. For instance, a number of computer simulations, available over the web and in other venues, provide a menu of alternative spending cuts or tax increase options and, by giving participants an opportunity to try to balance the federal or a state budget, may provide evidence about the difficulty of some of the tradeoffs involved.
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From page 145... ...
, developed by a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ventana Systems, and the Sustainability Institute, is a simple model that traces the implications of alternative GHG abatement policies and their ability to meet various types of emission reduction targets (see Figure 4.5)
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From page 146... ...
These kinds of simulations have been successful in engaging many members of the public in assessing alternative climate futures. For example, more than 2 million players undertook policy simulations with Red Redemption's Climate Challenge video game on the BBC Science and Nature web site.2 Informing State and Regional Level Emissions Reductions A number of states have taken action to reduce GHG emissions, both on their own and in regional partnerships with other states (see Chapter 2)
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This is normally done in the context of a target for GHG emissions reductions that has been established within political arenas. In developing their reduction plans, states and regions have commonly worked with a facilitating group, such as the World Resources Institute (WRI)
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. The modelers develop the reference case, with which a comparison can be made to the results modeled when factoring in the GHG reduction strategies the group has settled upon.
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. LCA is a technique to assess the environmental aspects and potential impacts associated with a product, process, or service by compiling an inventory of relevant energy and material inputs and environmental releases; evaluating the potential environmental impacts associated with identified inputs and releases; and interpreting the results to improve the quality of decision making.
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From page 150... ...
For example, ISO 14048 sets international standards for nomenclature and frameworks for life cycle inventory but provides little guidance on specific data models. UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS AND INFORMING ADAPTATION DECISIONS Although impact models can be included as elements in the integrated assessment models described in the previous section, they are more commonly used to estimate the impacts of climate change on particular sectors and to assess how adaptation might reduce these impacts.
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From page 151... ...
Coastal management also uses a range of modeling and decision tools to prepare for severe storms, assess alternative land uses, and analyze management options that might include coastal protection, warning systems, and building regulations. These models must be carefully calibrated to take into account local conditions because of the ways in which particular coastal formations and human activities influence the impacts of climate and management options.
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From page 152... ...
. Urban impact assessments can involve modeling and integration of multiple elements of the urban system, including the sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources, energy use, industrial production, and transport to climate conditions.
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Table 4.2 provides a useful overview of key advantages and disadvantages relating to the use of various methods of constructing regional climate change scenarios in climate impact assessments. Examples of decision support tools for climate change adaptation used by U.S.
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Assumes that the same socioCommunication, Institutional, no future climate change economic or environmental Sectoral information; 3. Reveals multi- responses recur under similar sector impacts/vulnerability climate conditions; 2.
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Dynamical downscaling 1. Maps regional climate 1.
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The site also enables users to access CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products, materi als that can be used in education and outreach programs, and information on how to obtain funds for local programs. CREP also assists decision makers through publications that structure problems and lay out options for climate change adaptation, including maintaining and restoring wetlands; maintaining sediment transport; preserving coastal lands development and infrastructure; maintaining shorelines through both "soft" measures such as marsh creation to slow shore erosion and "hard" measures such as the construction of sea walls and breakwaters; and maintaining water quality and availability.
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From page 157... ...
PlaNYC uses a variety of strategies to aid decision making, providing decision makers with information on a range of climate-related indicators, including climate change scenarios, downscaled regional scenarios, projections regarding future extreme events, and physical and social vulnerability indicators.The New York metropolitan region faces significant hazards related to sea level rise -- in particular storm surges from extreme weather events, which will become more severe as sea level rise progresses. In studies carried out for the New York City Department of Environmental Protection, researchers at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
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has used a water management simulation model, down-scaled climate projections, and decision support software in a participatory stakeholder process to implement an iterative risk management approach to improve its ability to respond to climate change. The IEUA,a wholesale water and wastewater provider in Riverside County,California,is legally required every few years to prepare or update a plan demonstrating how they will ensure their community's access to water.
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From page 159... ...
The RAND team then used a decision analytic approach called robust decision making to implement the iterative risk management approach using this simulation model and ensemble of future climate projections. With decision support software designed for this purpose, the study used the simulation model to follow its current plan into several hundred different futures, each characterized by one of the future weather sequences and one set of assumptions about the agency's future level of success in implementing its plans, and future supplies of imported water.
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From page 160... ...
That value -- the value of information that could define the actual probability -- is useful for resource allocation decisions for research. The model results indicate that if the research determined that low damage was a certainty, the value of perfect information would be zero.
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From page 161... ...
Additionally, information that does not necessarily reduce uncertainty, in the sense of narrowing the width of the probability distribution of outcomes, such as information generated from deterministic models and scenarios, can still have a high value for improving decisions. ASSESSMENTS AS TOOLS FOR CLIMATE-RELATED DECISION MAKING Integrated assessment models are just one method used in the process of developing broader assessments of environmental issues which bring together a wide range of scientific information and analysis to provide state of the art summaries for decision makers.
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4. A timeline consistent with assessment objectives, the state of the underlying knowledge base, the resources available, and the needs of decision makers.
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, our panel identified other considerations that should be taken into account when assessments are used as decision support tools, such as the following: • Assessments, such as the IPCC and CCSP, have become overwhelming in their scope, size, and demands on the scientific community. It is often hard for deci sion makers to identify the key messages and information that are relevant to the choices they face.
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It is frequently argued that a major purpose of analysis is insights, rather than numbers. Decision tools work best when they provide decision makers with an analytical framework for thinking about a particular problem.
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We therefore conclude that there could be a stronger role for the Federal government to provide better guidance on decision support tools for climate decisions, perhaps through a climate tools database, network, and best practice examples. This could be considered part of a broader attempt to provide climate and carbon management services.
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Recommendation 5: a) The federal government should support research and the development and diffusion of decision support tools and include clear guidance as to their uses and limitations for different types and scales of decision making about climate change.
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