Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (2010) / Chapter Skim
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5 Climate Services:Informing America About Climate Variability and Change, Impacts, and Response Options
5 Climate Services:Informing America About Climate Variability and Change, Impacts, and Response Options
Pages 167-204
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announced intentions to create a "NOAA Climate Service" within its agency with a redesigned prototype web interface.2 These initiatives involve substantial reorganization and investments before the services are fully functional and at the time of writing were not coordinated with each other or other federal climate services (e.g., climate information in NASA or the U.S. Department of Agriculture [USDA]
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To date, the ongoing national conversation about the establishment of a new entity called a "National Climate Service" has focused on the provision of information about the impacts of climate change and variability and has not addressed how best to provide broader information such as services related to greenhouse gas emissions and reduction strategies. The nation needs climate services that include both kinds of information.
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, and ongoing evaluation to ensure response to user needs and new science at national and regional scales. As discussed in this chapter, successful and effective climate services need • Leadership and coordination at a high level to ensure focused engagement of relevant federal agencies; • Responsiveness to user needs, including the ability to make scientific informa tion understandable and useful; • Reliable observations and modeling that provide decision-relevant informa tion at the space and time scales of decision making; • The ability to support and incorporate research that delivers improved infor mation, assessments, and decision tools; • Provision of information on an equitable basis to all decision makers, including citizens, communities, states, sectors, and tribes; • Adequate capacity for the development and delivery of climate information; and • The provision and support of relevant international information in support of decision making by U.S.
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national climate services is well established and dates back to the National Climate Service Act of 1978, when Congress recognized that the nation's "ability to anticipate natural and maninduced changes in climate would contribute to the soundness of policy decisions in the public and private sectors" and that "information regarding climate is not being fully disseminated or used, and Federal efforts have given insufficient attention to assessing and applying this information."3 Table 5.1 provides an overview of the types of decisions made by different stakeholders that might be informed by climate services with a focus on the provision of information about climate, impacts and adaptation in the Unites States. Further examples of climate information needs can be found in the boxes scattered throughout this report and in the companion ACC reports (NRC, 2010a; b)
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precipitation and sea level, water and energy Should infrastructure or people be relocated? utilization Private Sector Agricultural producers: What to produce and how Seasonal forecasts for drought and other climate much to invest in insurance, water and other conditions (in both the United States and for inputs international competitors)
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This information needs to be made available to the widest possible range of people and organizations. Climate services have the potential to sustain the application of current and future climate information for government, industry, and individuals.
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. Decision makers are now expecting and demanding up-to-date reliable climate information for them to integrate into management decisions.
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This is due in part to the many participants involved, as well as unclarified institutional roles inhibiting the timely dissemination of climate information. Through stakeholder engagement, climate services can foster the integration of climate information into planning efforts at the local, state, and federal agency levels and help develop management strategies to deal with socioeconomic consequences of climate change and variability.
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. These demands and activities demonstrate the need for a permanent and clearly identifiable national climate service that can coordinate and integrate climate information to develop products and tools; provide access to comprehensive, up-to-date reliable information on current and future climate change, variability, and risks; and provide response options to inform decisions ranging from adaption and emission polices to education and communication initiatives.
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Advances in observations, data integration, and thoughtfully tailored dissemination of climate information provide a foundation for development of an effective national climate service. The development of systems and standards to deliver near real time products to meet national, regional,
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Climate services nationwide could fulfill the rising demand for information to inform adaptation to the impacts of climate change. The timeliness of delivery of credible information is a key issue and the development of new technologies will provide opportunities for rapid and cost-effective dissemination of climate information.
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Through stakeholder engagement, climate services can foster the integration of climate information into planning efforts at the local, state, and federal agency levels, as well as in the private sector (Figure 5.1)
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(bottom right) National Weather Service recognizes San Lorenzo, Puerto Rico, as a StormReady® community.
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Although "downscaling" efforts are being initiated, they are far from answering policy-relevant questions fully. Indicators of Relevance to Decision Making An effective climate service provides information that is relevant to everyday decision making and provides early warnings of changes at local and regional scales.
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The panel welcomes this development but observes that the portal is thus far focused on climate observations and shorter-term predictions with little information on decision tools, vulnerability, adaptation, longer-term future climate change, or information and services available from other federal or local agencies. Timely Delivery of Climate Information A climate service could increase agency capacity to provide near real time climate data, provide access to climate data from observations to archives, and integrate those data into planning and management at multiple government levels.
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. Figure 5.2 illustrates the complex set of information that needs to be provided for an effective climate service, including the wide range of non-climatic information that is needed for effective decision support (e.g., vulnerability information, adaptation options, and decision tools)
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The climate service could provide information to the USGCRP on new and emerging needs of stakeholders to help guide research or modeling priorities (Box 5.4)
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A climate service can help identify critical gaps in the national observation system. Chapter 7 addresses the critical role of international observing systems.
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A national climate service cannot do on-demand modeling with accompanying services for every type of user but given federal investment in climate modeling the panel judges that the federally funded modeling enterprise could be more responsive in informing federal choices about alternative mitigation paths and their climate implications. However, the topic on the stabilization of the climate system with the projections of future climate impacts has not been systematically addressed in the United States, and investigation of national policy choices will need to use state-of-the-art climate models.
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identified the growing demand and considerable value in climate information ranging from extended outlooks and seasonal to interannual forecasts used in water and energy management to decadal and century scale climate scenarios for different concentrations of greenhouse gases. The NRC 2001 report identified the following five guiding principles for climate services: • user-centric, • supported by active research, • include predictive and historical information on a variety of time and space scales,
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• Comprehensive databases and archives to manage data relevant to stakeholder needs should be maintained. Modeling and Analysis • Models for decision support are needed to inform various social, economic, and environmental decisions and to promote environmental stewardship and sustainability.
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also address the question of climate services and recommend that federal efforts be coordinated to provide climate services to decision makers and maintain strong links to the U.S climate change research program (NRC, 2009d) , and that any form of national climate service should conform to principles of effective decision support.
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The NOAA Science Advisory Board CWG report echoes others in stating that a climate service should promote interactions between users, researchers, and information providers, be user-centric, and provide useable information and decision support tools based on a sustained network of observations, modeling, research, and user outreach. The report recommends: • the internal reorganization of NOAA with the objective to better connect weather and climate functions, research, operations, and users, but identifying NOAA as the logical lead agency; • clearly defined roles for federal agencies as well as for state and local govern ments and the private and public sectors; • leadership at the highest level, preferably within the White House; and • a large dedicated budget.
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To be successful, climate services need to engage existing institutions that have a track record of providing climate information (on both physical climate and impacts) to a wide range of stakeholders.
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has initiated an interagency program to establish regional climate centers, and several other departments and agencies have built outreach systems that focus on interactions with stakeholders at the regional level. The Agricultural Extension Services and the NRCS of USDA provide useful models for what might be needed for climate services given their engagement with stakeholders (Box 5.6)
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Extension programs also focus on training agricultural extension agents to equip them with knowledge and tools to accurately translate climate information to advise farmers. One example program in the Northeast focuses on financial opportunities, illustrated by the program's tagline, "Promoting Practical and Profitable Responses."Because farmers are concerned with their bottom line, this framing engages them in a way that a strictly "environmental" approach might not.
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These existing networks can be a tremendous resource for mobilizing the climate service in regions and sectors where there might otherwise be inadequate workforce capacity. Climate services will also need to provide information about the climate effects of various emission reduction efforts and polices.
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Response options would be focused on adaptation responses but recognizing that some adaptation options also reduce emissions. The research provided through climate services is relevant to decisions about emission reduction strategies because it can clarify the effects of emission reduction policies and thus help decision makers set goals.
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Another draft National Climate Service Act proposes the establishment of a NCS within the Department of Commerce with NOAA as the lead agency. This proposed approach would include a national office and a network of "regional climate service enterprises" to produce climate information and products guided by an advisory council and coordinated through a climate services board.
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The case studies in Boxes 5.7 and 5.8 provide important examples of how elements of climate services can be designed and implemented -- the RISA program of the United States and the U.K. Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
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A climate service can also demonstrate how science can be relevant to iterative decision processes by providing new information to incorporate into decisions (see Chapter 3)
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By 2008, the RISA program had grown to nine regions and included a wide range of sectors. The RISA program, with its focus on place-based, stakeholder-driven research, partnership, and services, created an effective demonstration-scale climate service for parts of the nation.
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The RISAs provide a model of the functions required for the regional component of a national climate service. changes and variations in the physical climate and changes in the political climate)
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; online tools for estimating costs, identifying adaptation options, and sharing best practices; and training experts to deliver information and tools to their local regions or organizations. The UKCIP experience illustrates the value of climate services as a function that is seen as independent of the agency that collects climate information and runs climate models (the U.K.
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There are also justice concerns regarding timing and access to information in relation to the role of climate information in futures markets, where a climate service must balance the private value of climate information with the public good (NRC, 1999)
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Climate services can meet user needs by providing climate information to improve planning, risk management, resource allocation, impacts assessment, adaptation, and emission reduction strategies. In this chapter we have provided guidance on potential functions, institutional considerations, principles for operation, and performance metrics for climate services, taking into account previous reports and ongoing proposals.
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, can be used for ongoing evaluation of climate change and climate decisions, and has an easily accessible information portal that facilitates coordination of data among agencies and a dialogue between information users and providers.
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