Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (2010) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 19-46
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From page 19... ...
Decision makers in business and government require economic cost-benefit analyses and information to judge how best to allocate finite resources and make tradeoffs between competing values. People need information, which is often derived by trial and error, to help clarify over time particular aspects of each climate related problem, the emerging options available to respond to the problem, the plausible range of outcomes, and the types of institutions required for supporting effective action in the face of uncertainty.
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panels, the Informing panel chose to investigate the following key questions for this report: • Who is making decisions and taking action on climate change in the United States? What are their needs for information and decision support, and what are the barriers to good decisions?
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. The IPCC also recommends an iterative risk management approach1 that includes adaptation and emissions reduction strategies and that takes into account damages, co-benefits, sustainability, equity, and attitudes toward risk (IPCC, 2007b)
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Not only is the climate a chaotic system, but humans are pushing it into poorly understood patterns and processes where there are chances of rapid climate change and surprise. The uncertainties regarding the details of future climate change depend on which decisions 2 For GHG emissions inventories and mitigation, the common practice is to compare and aggregate emissions by using global warming potentials (GWPs)
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From page 23... ...
Decision makers and stakeholders will need sector specific information to respond to climate change and may assign different values both to the impacts of climate change and to the costs and benefits of policy actions to limit or adapt to these impacts. Hence, a fundamental part of climate change policy must be deciding how to allocate finite resources among the diverse options available for limiting emissions, adaptation, or research.
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I N F O R M I N G A N E F F E C T I V E R E S P O N S E T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E FIGURE 1.2 This simple visualization of how climate change might affect temperatures in the southwestern United States portrays uncertainty in two ways: through a low and high emissions scenario (one where fossil fuel use continues to increase, one where use is limited) and through brackets that show the range of uncertainty for temperatures under each scenario.
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Because climate change decisions often involve benefits related to health, safety, equity, and environmental concerns, policy makers must decide whether and how to include such non-monetary benefits in the return on investment analysis. The ability to create and implement effective climate policy will likely come down to the availability of resources, and the choices policy makers make will be directly linked to the price assigned to the harms against which one hopes to protect.
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population, how to respond to potential national security risks of climate change, and how and whether to respond to human security concerns in other regions of the world What is the best way to educate and communicate about climate change to the public State, tribal, and local How to control GHG emissions, especially from utilities, transport, and government buildings, and whether to join regional trading initiatives, and how to encourage citizens to reduce their emissions Setting renewable portfolio and energy efficiency standards How to incorporate climate change into land use planning, infrastructure projects, and disaster planning How to amend the building code to reduce GHG emissions and to address the impacts of climate change, including the increased potential for flooding, droughts, high winds, heat waves, and disruption of utility services, as well as the need for buildings to be inhabitable without energy How and whether to limit emissions from state and local government operations How to facilitate adaptation through policy decisions about insurance cover, environmental protection, land use, etc. Potential information campaigns and educational guidelines Private sector How to reduce GHG emissions from operations and supply chains, and whether to participate in regional and global carbon markets and offsetting
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Funding research and development Non-governmental How to reduce their own GHG emissions and influence the emissions of organizations (e.g., trade, their members or the public religious, environmental, Where and how to facilitate adaptation humanitarian, foundations) Whether and how to influence government, the private sector, and the public through information, communication, action, networks, and lobbying Funding research and responses to climate change Individuals How seriously to judge the threat of climate change and how to weigh current costs against future benefits How to prepare by adapting homes, lifestyles, and landscapes to climate change What actions to take to reduce their emissions in household energy use, travel, and purchase of household goods and food Should their investments (including pensions)
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From page 28... ...
This choice is especially challenging given both the general need for more and better scaled information on climate change and its impacts, and also the uncertainties associated with new energy development. Decision makers are wary of making wrong choices, such as picking the wrong technology or building the wrong "infrastructure of the future." On the other hand, many policy makers have embraced the idea that taking action to respond to climate change is urgent and that they play a vital role in catalyzing change through successful policy action, even providing inspiration for other decision makers to take action.
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Thus, decision makers today need information and support to help them make the major infrastructure investment choices that will be effective across a wide range of possible future conditions. BARRIERS TO EFFECTIVE DECISION MAKING Framing of Climate Change Affects Decision Making and Responses Decision making about climate change is often conducted not only under conditions of scientific uncertainty but also by people who may be unfamiliar with the details and weight of scientific evidence.
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Nisbet (2009) argues that people "rely on frames to make sense of and discuss an issue; journalists use frames to craft interesting and appealing news reports; policy makers apply frames to define policy options and reach decisions; and experts employ frames to simplify technical details and make them persuasive." The way an issue is framed often affects the way in which people use information and choose information sources and can constrain the range of decisions and choices they see as available to themselves and others.
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.4 China is the third largest emitter in the historical frame. Arguably then, the United States and China bear particular historical responsibility for the already high concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere.
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Solving the nation's energy challenges will require many of the same policies and investments needed to reduce GHG emissions, such as improved energy efficiency, conservation, and the development of new renewable sources of energy. Some argue, therefore, that a more effective way to address climate change is to focus not on emission targets and timetables (a "pollution frame")
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Resource allocation constraints and conflicting frames are only two of the barriers to effective decision making about climate change. At the most fundamental level, efforts to inform effective decisions in the climate change arena face the same major barriers, mainly political and economic, as other major social problems, such as health care.
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Different decision makers require different levels of certainty (Slocum et al., 2003) and types of information which may
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It also emphasizes the need to conduct scientific investigations in ways that address the concerns of decision makers, which can be quite different from those of the scientists who generate the information. The reports review experience with decision support in coping with climate variability and change, and stress the importance of developing appropriate frameworks for supporting climate related decisions.
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Decision support systems require networks and institutions linking information producers with decision makers. The cultures and incentives of science and practice are different, for good reason, and, in order to build productive and durable relationships,those differences need to be respected.Some ways to accomplish this rely on networks and intermediaries, such as boundary organizations.
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. Political Challenges Can Delay Making Informed and Effective Decisions Like other major social policy issues that the nation faces, such as immigration and border security, health care, and defense, climate change is a politically charged topic, in part because the costs and tradeoffs of policy strategies threaten different political and economic interests.
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The broader social, economic, and political context should be taken into account in understanding why some initiatives move smoothly through the policy process while others do not, how and why policy windows open in some cases but not in others, and why some policy entrepreneurs succeed while others fail. In the case of climate change, this means recognizing the impact on decision support activities of the current national and global macroeconomic climate, public opinion regarding national policy issues, and other significant political issues such as health care.
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However, when institutions are incapable of adapting to new circumstances and information, or cannot do so in a timely manner, it impedes effective responses to climate change. A recent NRC report, Restructuring the Federal Climate Change Science Program (NRC, 2009d)
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As discussed in Chapter 6, the nation currently lacks consistent standards for how to report emissions reductions, as well as sound ways of monitoring emissions and verifying compliance with whatever standards might be developed. Without these and other types of information, there can be no national strategy for managing GHGs.
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include the lack of detailed, timely, and consistent information on GHG emissions and the activities that produce them, uncertainties in how climate will change at the regional scale and what it means for sectors, landscapes, livelihoods, human needs, and the need to link information about climate change and responses in the United States to what is happening internationally. Some decision makers may understandably resist using information when uncertainty is high (Slocum et al., 2003)
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. This panel was asked to consider what can be done to inform effective decisions and actions related to climate change.
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Climate change presents a technical, social, and political challenge that is in some ways similar to, although in other ways quite unique from, many challenges the United States has faced before. The United States has the proven ability to revolutionize technology and the nation's infrastructure, mobilize around a common purpose, work with other nations to combat common threats, and solve major environmental problems at far less cost than originally expected (see Appendix B)
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Chapter 3 builds on previous NRC reports and the IPCC, proposing iterative risk management as the best approach to informed decisions, and discusses why this framework is best suited for a variety of decision makers in responding to climate change. Chapter 4 evaluates specific decision support tools and other resources used for a variety of decisions related to climate change at the international, national, and state scales.
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Chapter 8 discusses what is known about communication and education about climate change, with some recommendations for improvements. During the early stages of the America's Climate Choices study there were several opportunities for public input.
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