Hidden Costs of Energy Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use (2010) / Chapter Skim
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3 Energy for Transportation
3 Energy for Transportation
Pages 154-221
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From page 154... ...
. Of that used, approximately 96% is in the form of petroleum, 2.6% is natural gas, and less than 1% is biomass, electricity, or other fuels.
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From page 155... ...
The result has been substantial reductions in emissions and ambient levels of a number of pollutants, even as vehicle miles have increased. For example, there have been substantial reductions of ambient levels of carbon monoxide (CO)
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From page 156... ...
light-duty vehicle fleet now has an average new-vehicle fuel efficiency of about 25 mpg. Recently, California adopted so-called GHG emission standards that would require substantial reductions in GHG emissions, primarily through enhancements in fuel economy, by 2016; 13 additional states indicated that they would adopt the standards once the U.S.
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From page 157... ...
Diesel engines and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) , such as the Toyota Prius, are currently available and can reduce fuel consumption by more than 25% relative to today's gasoline vehicles.
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From page 158... ...
(2009) of air-emission impacts from transportation fuels both used a bottom-up approach in which environmental benefits and costs are estimated by following the pathway from source emissions through pollutant-level changes in air, soil and water to health and environmental impacts.
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The movement of feedstocks and fuels in the supply chain of transportation fuels is different from that of electricity. Petroleum and petroleum products (for example, gasoline or diesel fuel)
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GREET users are in North America, Europe, and Asia. GREET includes more than 100 fuel production pathways and more than 70 vehicle and fuel systems. Fuels include conventional and oilsands-based petroleum fuel, natural gas, coal-based liquid fuels; biofuels derived from soybeans, corn, sugarcane, and cellulosic biomass; and gridindependent hybrids, grid-dependent hybrids, and all electric and hydrogen fuel cells.
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From page 161... ...
, fossil fuels (petroleum, natural gas, and coal together) , petroleum, coal, and natural gas.
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From page 162... ...
. BD20 = 20% biodiesel blend; CG = conventional gas; CNG = compressed natural gas; E10 = 10% ethanol blend; E85 = 85% ethanol blend; HEV = hybrid electric vehicle; HDDV = heavy-duty diesel vehicle; RFG = reformulate gasoline; SI = spark ignition; SIDI = spark ignition, direct injection.
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From page 163... ...
In this case, the feedstock emissions are those involving such activities as extraction of coal and natural gas that are weighted to reflect a default mix of electricity-generating technologies. (The committee used a national electricity-generation mix of fuel types taken from the national energy modeling system (NEMS)
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From page 164... ...
states, a distribution of damages over all counties was obtained. Thus, for all life-cycle stages, the 5th and 95th percentile range and median county damages are presented for each more detailed description of the APEEP model is given in Chapter 2 and Appendix D
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From page 165... ...
. In 2007, the United States consumed 7.5 billion barrels of crude oil and petroleum products, of which nearly 70% was used by the transportation sector.
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Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production FIGURE 3-2 Overview of petroleum consumption, production, and imports from 1949 to 2007.
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fuels (gasoline, diesel fuel, image have a complex web of production and transport processes that include resource extraction, transport, refining storage, transfers, and combustion. Therefore, to understand externalities, one has to develop a map of the life FIGURE 3-4 Products made from one barrel of crude oil (gallons)
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From page 168... ...
In general, each phase of the cycle can contribute to deleterious effects from components of the hydrocarbon mixture itself; from activities and materials associated with a particular phase in the fuel cycle (for example, road development for oil production) ; and from generated wastes or byproducts that pollute air, water, and soil or that contribute to climatechange effects.
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ENERGY FOR TRANSPORTATION 169 TABLE 3-2 Number of U.S. Aircraft, Vehicles, Vessels, and Other Conveyances 1960 1990 2000 2006 Air Air carriera 2,135 6,083 8,055 U General aviationb (active fleet)
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It does not attempt to quantify effects and does not attempt to assess the efficacy of the various approaches used to manage risks of those effects. FIGURE 3-6 Conceptual stages of fuel life cycle.
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From page 171... ...
Crude oil is prepared for shipment to storage facilities and then to offsite refineries. Natural gas can be separated from the oil at the well site and processed for sale, or the gas can be flared as a waste (usually at onshore operations)
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Nonconventional Oil Reserve: Oil Sand Oil sands (also called tar sands or bituminous sands) contain a viscous oil referred to as bitumen that serves as a nonconventional source of synthetic crude oil.
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Refining Crude Oil Refineries separate conventional and synthetic crude oil into different petroleum products that can be used as fuels, lubricants, chemical feedstocks, and other oil-based products. Fuels make up the vast majority of the output (see Figure 3-5)
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In 2008, more than 338 million barrels of crude oil and refined products were held in storage at refineries. Bulk terminal storage facilities held more than 320 million barrels of refined petroleum products, including distillate fuel oils (diesel fuel)
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The vehicles may be fueled with gasoline, diesel fuel, or alternative fuels, such as alcohol or natural gas. Nonroad sources include vehicles, aircraft, marine vessels, and locomotives, and other vehicles and equipment used for construction, agriculture, and recreation.
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Emissions Characterization Emissions characterization included life-cycle emissions for light-duty gasoline- and diesel-fueled vehicles and for heavy-duty diesel vehicles for 2005 and 2030 fuel and vehicle technology combinations. Life-cycle emissions for gasoline- and diesel-fueled light-duty vehicles are obtained primarily from GREET (Argonne National Laboratory 2009)
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From page 177... ...
Although damages from 2005 to 2030 would be expected to increase due to population growth, the increase is largely offset in these analyses by the substantial increase in fuel economy to 35.5 mpg by 2016. Table 3-4 provides a summary of the modeling results from the GREETAPEEP modeling effort related to gasoline and diesel fuels in heavy-duty vehicles.
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ABBREVIATIONS: GHG = greenhouse gas; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; gge = gasoline gallon equivalent; SI = spark ignition; SIDI = spark ignition, direct injection; CIDI = compression ignition, direct injection.
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bFrom the distribution of results for all counties in the 48 contiguous states in the United States. ABBREVIATIONS: VMT = vehicle miles traveled; gge = gasoline gallon equivalent.
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537 401 HDGV2B heavy-duty gasoline vehicles class 2B 1,095 1,080 HDGV3 heavy-duty gasoline vehicles class 3 1,187 1,165 HDDV2B heavy-duty diesel vehicles class 2B 969 957 HDDV3 heavy-duty diesel vehicles class 3 1,071 1,064 HDDV4 heavy-duty diesel vehicles class 4 1,224 1,216 HDDV5 heavy-duty diesel vehicles class 5 1,262 1,255 HDDV6 heavy-duty diesel vehicles class 6 1,433 1,424 HDDV7 heavy-duty diesel vehicles class 7 1,650 1,647 HDDV8A heavy-duty diesel vehicles class 8A 1,903 1,882 HDDV8B heavy-duty diesel vehicles class 8B 2,007 1,969 NOTE: 2030 estimates assume 35.5 mpg for all light-duty vehicles. ABBREVIATIONS: GHGs = greenhouse gases; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; RFG = reformulated gasoline; SI = spark ignition; SIDI = spark ignition, direct injection; CG = conventional gas.
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From page 181... ...
In recent years, the potential benefit of biofuels to reduce the amount of GHGs per unit energy content of fuel compared with petroleum and other fossil-fuel-based sources of transportation fuels has become another important factor in developing production and vehicle technologies for the use of biofuels. Ethanol produced from corn is currently the largest and most economically viable biofuel being produced in the United States (biodiesel from soy is the second largest)
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From page 182... ...
Given the uncertainties associated with these feedstocks, the committee has identified three that are among the most likely to be relied upon and for which some data are available from which we can produce educated guesses concerning the likely externalities associated with them. The feedstock we focus on for further analysis include the following: corn grain, corn stover, and a perennial grass to produce transportation fuels.
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From page 183... ...
Waste paper and a a paperboard Municipal solid wastes a a aAn analysis of the potential for these fuels can be found in NAS/NAE/NRC 2009c. Another biofuel under consideration and in some use is the so-called biodiesel, that is, fuels derived from biomass that can replace diesel fuels for use in diesel engines.
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From page 184... ...
The AEF report also calls for watershed-specific studies to address the suite of externalities and technological challenges associated with alternative feedstocks. In characterizing the externalities associated with liquid transportation fuels from biomass, the externalities generated at each of the following stages need to be considered: 1.
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From page 185... ...
If corn stover were to be used for ethanol production, it would be removed from the soil and therefore not left to decompose and rebuild the soil. Agronomists and others debate about how much stover can be removed to maintain soil productivity, but there is no reason to believe that soil carbon storage does not decline immediately as stover is removed (although the magnitude could be quite small)
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From page 186... ...
Water Quality and Soil Erosion Corn is a heavily fertilized crop with large water demands. The major water-quality issues related to corn production include the runoff of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment.
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. If corn stover is used to produce biofuels, the same set of water-quality externalities described above will apply, but will be magnified for two reasons.
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. As mandated, EPA performed its lifecycle computation of GHG contributions of corn ethanol, two types of biodiesel, and three cellulosic ethanol feedstocks (sugarcane, switchgrass, and corn stover)
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Thus, when estimating the externalities associated with U.S. biofuel production, analysts shouuld include the externalities associated with direct land-use changes to produce the feedstocks, but not the market-induced indirect effects.
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. The committee's goal throughout this report is to define and estimate the externalities associated with the production of energy sources.
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From page 191... ...
Further, the estimates are unlikely to be transferable to other regions where biofuels may be produced and to other feedstocks grown for biofuel production. To evaluate the water quality and carbon sequestration externalities associated with biofuels production in the Boone watershed, we analyzed three possible feedstocks: corn grain, corn stover, and switchgrass.
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From page 192... ...
c (kg/acre) d Baseline 0.31 20.11 0.29 Corn stover: 50% 0.44 19.62 0.35 Corn stover: 80% 0.69 21.09 0.48 Corn stover: 100% 1.23 24.53 0.72 Corn, continuous planting 0.45 30.68 0.29 Corn stover, continuous planting: 50% 0.78 29.12 0.43 Corn stover, continuous planting: 80% 1.16 30.46 0.61 Corn stover, continuous planting: 100% 1.55 32.19 0.79 Switchgrass: 25% 0.23 26.11 0.24 Switchgrass: 50% 0.16 31.93 0.18 Switchgrass: 75% 0.08 37.93 0.13 Switchgrass: 100% 0.01 43.79 0.08 aAll values are annual averages.
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From page 193... ...
Ethanol Production and Monetization Each of the scenarios presented are associated with different amounts of potential ethanol production. In Table 3-8, the committee presents estimates of the amount of ethanol that the feedstocks grown in the Boone watershed could produce so that the magnitude of the externalities reported can be compared with the fuel production with which they are associated.
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From page 194... ...
Baseline 112 Corn stover: 50% 167 55 Corn stover: 80% 196 85 Corn stover: 100% 214 103 Corn, continuous planting 217 105 Corn stover, continuous planting: 50% 325 213 Corn stover, continuous planting: 80% 384 272 Corn stover, continuous planting: 100% 421 309 Switchgrass: 25% 150 39 Switchgrass: 50% 187 75 Switchgrass: 75% 226 115 Switchgrass: 100% 264 152 aThese values assume that 105 gallons of ethanol can be produced per dry metric tonne of grain and 100 gallons/metric tonne of stover or switchgrass (GREET default values)
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From page 195... ...
TABLE 3-9 Monetized Land-Use Damages of the Boone River Case Studya Damages Erosion $/gal Damages Loss/Acre $/Acre $/Watershed Ethanol $/gge Corn stover: 50% 0.13 $0.49 $261,427 $0.005 $0.003 Corn stover: 80% 0.38 $1.41 $752,857 $0.009 $0.006 Corn stover: 100% 0.93 $3.43 $1,828,204 $0.018 $0.012 Corn, continuous planting 0.14 $0.52 $278,084 $0.003 $0.002 Corn stover, continuous planting: 0.47 $1.74 $929,355 $0.004 $0.003 50% Corn stover, continuous planting: 0.86 $3.17 $1,690,837 $0.006 $0.004 80% Corn stover, continuous planting: 1.25 $4.61 $2,459,075 $0.008 $0.005 100% Switchgrass: 25% –0.08 –$0.28 –$149,076 –$0.004 –$0.003 Switchgrass: 50% –0.14 –$0.53 –$284,211 –$0.004 –$0.003 Switchgrass: 75% –0.23 –$0.83 –$444,829 –$0.004 –$0.003 Switchgrass: 100% –0.30 –$1.09 –$581,777 –$0.004 –$0.003 aErosion monetized at $3.70 (2000 dollars)
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From page 196... ...
Costs are in 2007 USD. ABBREVIATIONS: GHG = greenhouse gas; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; gge = gasoline gallon equivalent.
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From page 197... ...
ELECTRIC VEHICLES History and Current Status The late 1990s saw the emergence -- in large measure in response to socalled zero-emission vehicle requirements of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) -- of both a small number of all-electric vehicles and the first gasoline hybrid vehicles.
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light-duty vehicle fleet. Recently, there has been increased interest in developing different versions of "plug-in" hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)
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, oils, acids, and solvents. The fuel cycle and potential effects pathways for electric vehicles are similar to other vehicles in a few respects (for example, manufacture of the vehicle)
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a Current gasoline 97-125 Current diesel 99-128 Current gasoline hybrid 114-144 2035 gasoline 115-159 2035 diesel 117-152 2035 plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) 138-175 2035 battery electric vehicle (BEV)
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The use of these vehicles is likely to involve three major externalities: Conventional pollutant and GHG emissions. Potential reductions in urban emissions and exposures (a positive externality)
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Even damages resulting from the operation of grid-independent hybrid electric vehicles (which also consume gasoline) are approximately 20% lower compared with damages resulting from the operation of vehicles fueled solely by conventional gasoline.
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bFrom the distribution of results for all counties in the 48 contiguous states in the United States. ABBREVIATIONS: GHG = greenhouse gas; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; HEV = hybrid electric vehicle.
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From page 204... ...
Natural gas is sold in units of gasoline gallon equivalent. One gasoline gallon equivalent represents the same energy content (124,800 British thermal units)
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If gas that otherwise would be flared or landfill gas is used as the feedstock, net GHG emissions can be negative. Modeled Estimates of Damages from Light-Duty CNG Vehicles Table 3-14 contains a summary of the modeling results from the GREET-APEEP modeling effort related to natural gas light-duty autos and trucks (with a row for reformulated gasoline autos for comparison purposes)
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From page 206... ...
ABBREVIATIONS: GHG = greenhouse gas; CNG = compressed natural gas; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; gge, gasoline gallon equivalent; SI = spark ignition. In fact, damages for CNG autos are 1.2 cents per VMT or about 23 cents/gge.
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From page 207... ...
ABBREVIATIONS: VMT = vehicle miles traveled; RFG = reformulated gasoline; SI = spark ignition; CNG = compressed natural gas. One caveat with these estimates is that they take, as given, GREET default assumptions with respect to LNG imports.
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From page 208... ...
ABBREVIATIONS: GHG = greenhouse gas; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; gge = gasoline gallon equivalent; SI = spark ignition. that assumes the vehicle carries a liquid fuel on the vehicle that is converted to hydrogen gas in a reformer.
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From page 209... ...
ABBREVIATIONS: GHGs = greenhouse gases; RFG = reformulated gaso line; SI = spark ignition. outperforms gasoline vehicles for CO2-equivalent, with only about 60% of the latter's emissions.
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From page 210... ...
ABBREVIATIONS: VMT = vehicle miles traveled; CNG = compressed natural gas; HEV = hybrid electric vehicle; RFG = reformulated gasoline. there are some differences that provide useful insight into the levels of damages attributable to different fuel and technology combinations in 2005 and 2030.
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From page 211... ...
As noted above, these vehicles have significant advantages over all other fuel and technology combinations when considering only damages from operations. However, the dam ages associated with the current and projected mixes of electricity generation (the latter still being dominated by coal and natural gas in 2030, albeit at significantly lower rates of emissions)
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From page 212... ...
Damages related to climate change are not included. ABBREVIATIONS: VMT, vehicle miles traveled; CG SI, conventional gasoline spark ignition; CNG, compressed natural gas; E85, 85% ethanol fuel; HEV, hybrid electric vehicle.
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From page 213... ...
. Battery electric vehicles: Potential effects from exposures to air toxics in battery manufacture, in battery disposal, and during accidents.
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From page 214... ...
result in most technologies becoming much closer to each other in per VMT life cycle GHG emissions. There are, however, some differences: As with the damages reported above, the herbaceous and corn stover E85 have relatively low emissions; in terms of aggregate g/VMT of CO2-equivalent emissions, E85 from corn also has rela tively low emissions.
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From page 215... ...
ABBREVIATIONS: GHG = greenhouse gas; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; CNG = compressed natural gas; HEV = hybrid electric vehicle; RFG = reformulated gasoline. wide range of vehicle types and configurations.
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From page 216... ...
ABBREVIATIONS: g CO2-eq, grams CO2-equivalent; VMT, vehicle miles traveled; CG SI, conventional gasoline spark ignition; CNG, compressed natural gas; E85, 85% ethanol fuel; HEV, hybrid electric vehicle.
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From page 217... ...
10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 B 8B 2B 8A V3 7 3 5 6 4 V2 DV DV DV DV DV DV DV DV G G D D D D D D D D D D H H H H H H H H H H Operation Feedstock Fuel FIGURE 3-9 Aggregate operation, feedstock, and fuel damages of heavy-duty vehicles from air-pollutant emissions (excluding GHGs) (cents/VMT)
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2000 1500 1000 500 0 B 8B 2B 8A V3 7 3 5 6 4 V2 DV DV DV DV DV DV DV DV G G D D D D D D D D D D H H H H H H H H H H Operation Feedstock Fuel FIGURE 3-10 Aggregate operation, feedstock, and fuel damages of heavy-duty vehicles from GHG emissions (cents/VMT)
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From page 219... ...
other than in the phase of vehicle operation. There some differences though, and from these, some conclusions can be drawn: • The gasoline-driven technologies have somewhat higher damages and GHG emissions in 2005 than a number of other fuel and technology combinations.
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From page 220... ...
• The choice of feedstock for biofuels can significantly affect the relative level of life-cycle damages, herbaceous and corn stover having some advantage in this analysis. • Additional regulatory actions or changes in the mix of electricity generation can significantly affect levels of damages and GHG emissions.
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From page 221... ...
5. Because a substantial fraction of life-cycle health impacts comes from both vehicle manufacture and fuel production, it is important to improve and expand the information and databases used to construct emissions factors for these life stages.
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