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7 Overall Conclusions and Recommendations
Pages 337-371

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From page 337...
... It provides factors to keep in mind when interpreting the results of the evaluations, overall conclusions, and recommendations for research to inform future consideration of various issues. THE COMMITTEE'S ANALYSES Our study examined external effects over the life cycle of electricity generation, transportation, and production of heat for the residential, com 337
From page 338...
... We considered climate-change effects associated with energy production and use, and we reviewed various attempts that have been made in the literature to quantify and monetize the damages associated with the effects of climate change. We also considered the literature on a variety of damages that are associated with the nation's energy infrastructure: disruption in the electricity transmission grid, vulnerability of energy facilities to accidents and possible attack, external costs of oil consumption, supply security considerations, and national security externalities.
From page 339...
... Although this section presents estimates of GHG emissions due to electricity generation, it does not present damages associated with effects related to climate change. Those damages are discussed in separate sections in this chapter.
From page 340...
... The lowest decile represents the 40 plants with the smallest aggregate damages per plant. The figure on the top of each bar is the average across all plants of damages associated with SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 Figure 7-1 (particles with diameters less than or equal to 2.5 and 10 microns, respectively)
From page 341...
...   These estimates are not weighted by electricity generation.
From page 342...
... Damages related to climate-change effects are not included. For 2030, despite increases in damages per ton of pollutant due to population growth and income growth, average damages per kWh (weighted by electricity generation)
From page 343...
... Thus, on average, nonclimatechange damages associated with electricity generation from natural gas are an order of magnitude lower than damages from coal-fired electricity generation. The distribution of damages across plants is, however, highly skewed (see Figure 7-4)
From page 344...
... As discussed later in this chapter, nonclimate-change damages from natural-gas-fired electricity generation are likely to be much smaller than its damages related to climate change. Electricity from Nuclear Power The committee did not quantify damages associated with nuclear power; however, we reviewed studies conducted by others and consider   These estimates are not weighted by electricity generation.
From page 345...
... their conclusions relevant. Overall, other studies have found that damages associated with the normal operation of nuclear power plants (excluding the possibility of damages in the remote future from the disposal of spent fuel) are low compared with those from fossil-fuel-based power plants.
From page 346...
... For example, aggregate land-use damages over the entire life cycle are also likely to be smaller for electricity generation from wind than for coal and natural gas. However, better information is needed, especially in light of the probable increase in the number and density of wind turbines.
From page 347...
... Societal damages associated with the killing of bats by wind turbines are currently small by comparison with the aggregate damages associated with electricity generation by coal, natural gas, and the sum of all other sources. Electricity from Solar Energy Much of the United States receives enough solar energy to produce about 1 kWh per square meter of panel area per day, with considerable local variability from north to south and regionally as a result of sun angles and weather patterns.
From page 348...
... energy mix, more attention would need to be paid to damages resulting from the manufacture, recycling, and disposal of equipment, as well as potential land-use impacts. Electricity from Biomass No attempt has been made to estimate damages associated with generating electricity using biomass feedstock derived from forestry practices, agricultural activities, and municipal solid waste because the amount of electricity generated from biomass feedstock is relatively small (total installed capacity is less than 1,600 MW)
From page 349...
... . This section also presents estimates of GHG emissions due to transportation, but it does not present estimates of climate-change-related damages associated with those emissions.
From page 350...
... Category of Aggregate Damage Estimates (Cents/VMT) 2005 2030 1.10-1.19 CNG Diesel with low sulfur and biodiesel 1.20-1.29 E85 herbaceous E85 corn stover E85 corn stover E85 herbaceous CNG Grid-independent HEV 1.30-1.39 Conventional gasoline and RFG Conventional gasoline and RFG E10 E10 Hydrogen gaseous E85 corn 1.40-1.49 Diesel with low sulfur and biodiesel Electric vehicle Grid-dependent HEV 1.50-1.59 E85 corn Grid-independent HEV Grid-dependent HEV >1.60 Electric vehicle Hydrogen gaseous ABBREVIATIONS: VMT, vehicle miles traveled; E85, ethanol 85% blend; E10, ethanol 10% blend; HEV, hybrid electric vehicle; CNG, compressed natural gas; RFG, reformulated gasoline.
From page 351...
... Although the underlying level of aggregate damages in the United States could be expected to rise between 2005 and 2030 because of projected increases in population and increases in the value of a statistical life, the results in our analysis of most fuel and technology examples in 2030 are very similar to those in 2005, in large measure because of the expected improvement in many technology and fuel combinations (including conventional gasoline) as a result of enhanced fuel efficiency (35.5 mpg)
From page 352...
... Damages related to climate change are not included. AB BREVIATIONS: VMT, vehicle mile traveled; CG SI, conventional gasoline spark ignition; CNG, compressed natural gas; E85, 85% ethanol fuel; E10, 10% ethanol fuel; HEV, hybrid electric vehicle.
From page 353...
... We urge the reader to be cautious when interpreting small differences in results among the wide range of fuels and technologies we assessed. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Similar to the damage estimates presented above, the GHG emission estimates for each fuel and technology combination can provide relative estimates of GHG performance in 2005 and 2030.
From page 354...
... In the latter vehicle technologies, the dominant contributor to life-cycle GHG emissions is electricity generation and the production of hydrogen rather than vehicle operation. Heavy-Duty Vehicles The committee also undertook a more limited analysis of the nonclimatechange-related damages and GHG emissions associated with heavy-duty vehicles.
From page 355...
... ABBREVIATIONS: g CO2-eq, grams CO2-equivalent; VMT, vehicle mile traveled; CG SI, conventional gasoline spark ignition; CNG, compressed natural gas; E85, 85% ethanol fuel; E10. 10% ethanol fuel; HEV, hybrid electric vehicle.
From page 356...
... households use a space-heating fuel other than gas, electricity, or petroleum-based fuels This section summarizes the above assessment, as well as estimates of GHG emissions due to heat generation. Climate-change-related damages are discussed later in this chapter.
From page 357...
... As discussed below, nonclimate-change damages from natural gas combustion for direct heat are likely to be much smaller than natural gas combustion damages related to climate change. In Sum Aggregate damages from combustion of natural gas for direct heat are estimated to be about $1.4 billion per year (2007 USD)
From page 358...
... Increased damages would also be possible, however, if new domestic energy development resulted in higher emissions or if additional imports of liquefied natural gas, which would increase emissions from the production and international transport of the fuel, were needed. Combustion of natural gas results in relatively lower GHG and criteriapollutant-forming emissions, as compared with similar emissions from coal (the main energy source for electricity generation)
From page 359...
... . • Holding the discount rate constant, the choice of damage function can alter estimates of marginal damages by an order of magnitude; for example, at a 3% discount rate, the marginal social cost of carbon is approximately $2 per ton of CO2-eq using the FUND model and $22 per ton of CO2-eq using the PAGE model.
From page 360...
... Climate damages for electricity generation from coal and for transportation can be larger than nonclimate damages if a high value is chosen for the social cost of carbon. Estimates of damages presented in this report do not by themselves provide a guide to policy.
From page 361...
... (See Table 7-1 for relative categories of nonclimate damages and Table 7-2 for relative categories of GHG emissions.) cOften called the "social cost of carbon." ABBREVIATIONS: CO2-eq, carbon dioxide equivalent; VMT, vehicle miles traveled; MCF, thousand cubic feet; E85, ethanol 85% blend; HEV, hybrid electric vehicle; CNG, compressed natural gas; RFG, reformulated gasoline.
From page 362...
... OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Electricity Generation Our analysis of the damages associated with energy for electricity focused on air-pollution damages -- both local and global -- associated with electricity generation. These estimates can be used to inform the choice of type of fuel used to generate electricity and to guide policies regarding the regulation of air emissions from electricity generation.
From page 363...
... The grid-dependent electric vehicle options had somewhat higher damages than many other technologies, even in our 2030 analysis, in large measure because of continued conventional emissions and GHG emissions from the existing grid and the likely future grid. • The choice of feedstock for biofuels can significantly affect the relative level of life-cycle damages, and herbaceous and corn stover feedstock have some advantage in our analysis.
From page 364...
... • The climate-change-related damages from the use of energy (primarily natural gas) for heating in the buildings and industrial sectors are low relative to climate-change-related damages associated with transpor
From page 365...
... • Holding the damage function constant, changing the discount rate from 4.5% to 1.5% in an IAM will cause the marginal social cost of carbon to change by an order of magnitude. • In all IAMs, marginal damage estimates for 2030 GHG emissions are 50-80% larger than estimates of damages from emissions occurring within the past few years.
From page 366...
... oil and gas transmission network -- of negligible magnitude per barrel of oil or thousand cubic feet of gas trans-shipped. • The monopsony component of the oil consumption premium is not an externality.
From page 367...
... Electricity • Although life-cycle activities pre- and post-generation generally appear to be responsible for a smaller portion of the life-cycle externalities than electricity generation itself, it is desirable to have a systematic estima
From page 368...
... • The health effects associated with toxic air pollutants, including specific components of PM, from electricity generation should be quantified and monetized. Given the importance of the "value of a statistical life" in determining the size of air-pollution damages, further exploration is needed to determine how willingness to pay varies with mortality-risk changes and with population characteristics, such as age and health status.
From page 369...
... • Improved understanding is needed of the currently unquantifiable effects and potential damages related to transportation, especially as they relate to biofuels (for example, effects on water resources and ecosystems) and battery technology (for example, effects throughout the battery life cycle of extraction through disposal)
From page 370...
... • Estimates of the marginal damage of a ton of CO2-eq include aggregate damages across countries according to GDP, thereby giving less weight to the damages borne by low-income countries. This aggregate estimate should be supplemented by distributional measures that describe how the burden of climate change varies among countries.
From page 371...
... Similarly, major initiatives to further reduce other emissions, improve energy efficiency, or shift to a cleaner electricity-generating mix (for example, renewable sources, natural gas, and nuclear) could substantially reduce the damages of external effects, including those from grid-dependent hybrid and electric vehicles.


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