A Transportation Research Program for Mitigating and Adapting to Climate Change and Conserving Energy Special Report 299 (2009) / Chapter Skim
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3 Mitigation Research to Inform Policy and Practice
3 Mitigation Research to Inform Policy and Practice
Pages 27-66
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From page 27... ...
The climate change bill that passed the House of Representatives in June 2009, the similar Senate bill proposed in October 2009 by Chairman Boxer of the Environment and Public Works Committee and Senator Kerry, and the transportation reauthorization legislation introduced by Chairman Oberstar of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee all would require new federal, state, and regional efforts to plan for and reduce transportation GHG emissions, over and above the reductions that will come from more fuel-efficient vehicles. Moreover, reauthorization legislation introduced in the Senate by Chairman Rockefeller and Senator Lautenberg of the Commerce Committee would require reductions in per capita travel, a provision that 60 members of the House have endorsed.
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From page 28... ...
from fuel combustion by transport, A = total transport activity, Si = modal structure of transport activity, Ii = energy consumption (fuel intensity) of each transport mode, and Fi,j = sum of GHG emissions characteristics of each transport fuel used by various modes (i = transport mode, j = fuel type)
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From page 29... ...
Not only the amount of activity and vehicle energy intensity but also the operation, construction, and maintenance of the infrastructure itself have energy and GHG emission consequences. This chapter will focus primarily on research opportunities to affect total transport activity, mode structure, and energy consumption through changes in travel demand; the role that infrastructure construction, operations, and maintenance might play in energy and emission reductions will be touched on.
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From page 30... ...
. One obvious way to reduce transport GHG emissions is to reduce travel or at least the rate of growth in vehicle miles of travel (VMT)
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From page 31... ...
The United States has a large supply of inexpensive land, and vast distances separate population and economic centers, which depend on transportation connections. The nation's extensive highway system, the success of motor carriers in using this ubiquitous system to capture mode share, and the aviation system have allowed economic development to spread across the nation.
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From page 32... ...
Carbon taxes or cap-and-trade proposals that would raise fuel prices, of the type debated in the U.S. Senate in 2008, would have minor effects on total fuel purchases and VMT in part because the impact of such proposals on fuel prices would be modest and in part because the increases in fleet fuel economy standards that Congress enacted will significantly reduce future travel costs (CBO 2008)
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From page 33... ...
For example, concern about imports of petroleum, often from unstable parts of the world, also motivates interest in measures to reduce transportation petroleum consumption, including measures aimed at reducing VMT. If policy makers wish to reduce total transportation demand beyond the levels that would be achieved through a carbon tax or cap-and-trade regime, questions arise concerning how much travel can be reduced and at what cost.
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From page 34... ...
An understanding of the potential cost per ton of GHG emission reduction under the full range of pricing strategies is also needed. Interest in moving away from fuel taxes as the main revenue source for transportation trust funds to a charge on motorists for mileage traveled is growing.
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From page 35... ...
. The scenarios in that report indicate that such changes could result in reductions in VMT, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions ranging from less than 1 to 11 percent by 2050, although the committee disagreed about the plausibility of achieving a doubling of density for 75 percent of future development.
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Models of trip generation need to become much more sensitive to how people change their trip making as circumstances change. In turn, development of such models requires more fundamental research into travel behavior (described later in this chapter)
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Analysis of the cost per ton of GHG emissions reduced by smart growth development should be accompanied by estimates of the other social and economic benefits and costs of this form of development. As a general rule, little is understood concerning what might be thought of as "second-order" effects that might result from more efficient transportation and development.
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From page 38... ...
.5 Such comparisons, however, are notoriously difficult because of data problems, the distortions of comparing averages, and the importance of including life-cycle energy and emissions in the calculations.6 During the peak period when transit buses are full, for example, transit bus energy efficiency outperforms other passenger modes, but the off-peak performance of transit buses is 5 Energy intensity estimates for transit bus differ across sources. In the Transportation Energy Data Book, 28th edition, the value of 4,253 Btu per passenger mile is given for 2006, but in National Transportation Statistics, the most recent value estimated is 3,262 for the same year (see http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/, accessed April 12, 2009)
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From page 39... ...
(2009) no longer provide energy intensity estimates for intercity trucks because of the difficulties of arriving at accurate estimates.
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From page 40... ...
Freight Mode shifts appear to be particularly relevant in freight, because trucking is the most energy-intensive freight mode and has a large and growing share of ton-miles. Trucking market share and total ton-miles have grown rapidly since deregulation of the surface modes in the 1980s; trucking's share of ton-miles increased from 19 to 29 percent between 1980 and 2005 (Table 3-2)
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From page 41... ...
1980 19 27 27 27 100 1985 22 27 27 25 100 1990 24 29 23 24 100 1995 25 32 20 23 100 2000 28 36 15 22 100 2005 29 38 13 20 100 −52 −26 Percentage change, 1980–2005 54 40 SOURCE: BTS 2007, Figure 4. ments, mostly by water, have been growing strongly, but there are no practical substitutes for most commodities moved across oceans, and GHG emissions per ton-mile for freight transported by oceangoing vessels are the lowest of all modes.
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The 1996 study Paying Our Way: Estimating Marginal Social Costs of Freight Transportation laid out a methodology by which the social costs and benefits of various freight modes could be compared on an O-D basis (TRB 1996)
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Given the small market share, that would have little impact on national transportation energy consumption or GHG emissions. Furthermore, in many city-pair markets, air travel tickets (whose prices do not include external costs)
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Improved Modal Efficiency Modal fuel intensity and associated GHG emissions could be decreased by reducing congestion, smoothing traffic flow, and curtailing hard accelerations and high speeds. The benefits for highway transportation energy conservation could be important.
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National policy makers have long relied on vehicle and fuel regulation to meet national clean air goals, and they are likely to place similar emphasis on vehicles and fuels to meet GHG emission reduction goals. Indeed, technology and alternative fuels are likely to be the largest sources of future reductions in transportation GHG emissions.
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From page 46... ...
. However, the scenarios imply that CAFE and market forces would not accomplish anywhere near enough GHG emission reductions if policy makers decide that transportation GHG emission levels must be reduced to 60 to 80 percent below 2005 levels by 2050.
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From page 47... ...
The scale and magnitude of the challenge of reducing transportation GHG emissions and the long time dimensions involved in climate change indicate the importance of beginning to take sensible actions now and continuing to improve the knowledge base that will be needed in coming decades. This section describes R&D to develop policy guidance and to disseminate
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, but in many other areas considerable gaps remain to be filled to guide policy decisions. Many strategies are believed by their supporters to have benefits other than GHG emission reduction that society also values.
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summarizes the knowledge base concerning the relationships among development patterns, VMT, energy use, and GHG emissions. Most studies have been unable to control for the many influences on the built environment and travel behavior (TRB 2009)
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(Ways of dealing with this problem have been addressed in the freight rail area.) This project would define the key data about passenger and freight travel needed at all levels of government and in the private sector to make prudent decisions about reducing transportation GHG emissions.
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New Tools and Technologies The new understanding and improved tools for analysis developed by the fundamental research described below should be translated into practical revisions of handbooks, tools, techniques, and technologies that can be disseminated widely, along with appropriate training. Among the new tools might be improved guidance documents, sketch planning models, regional travel models used by MPOs to analyze policy options that are sensitive to how travelers adjust their behavior, and paving materials and techniques with reduced GHG emissions.
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From page 52... ...
The committee expects that experts would be convened early in the program to identify the most promising areas of investment. Measurement and Estimation • Cost-effectiveness of individual mitigation strategies and combina tions of strategies: If the nation comes to support the need to mitigate transportation GHG emissions and reduce energy consumption, the most important research task in the mitigation area will be to inform the selection of strategies that require the least resources.
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From page 53... ...
Scholarly research in this area has not been well supported by transportation research programs in the past. Hence, the knowledge base is not as robust as needed to understand the implications of some of the mitigation proposals being suggested.
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From page 54... ...
– Little is currently understood about the magnitude of freight emis sions and energy consumption within metropolitan areas and how they change with spatial structure (Bronzini 2008)
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From page 55... ...
Cur rent models are based on simplistic representations of decision making. • Opportunities for passenger and freight mode shift: Improved under standing of the effects of policies designed to encourage shifts in travel to modes requiring less energy and with lower emissions of GHGs (transit, water, rail)
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From page 56... ...
Policy Analysis Grouped together under this heading are a variety of analytical tasks needed to inform policy makers: • Successes and failures of past transportation interventions to meet fed eral air quality standards: For nearly 40 years the nation has strug gled to reach national air quality standards through transportation and other measures. The mitigation strategies to reduce GHG emis sions are similar to those implemented to reduce criteria emissions from vehicles.
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From page 57... ...
• Integrated vehicle–fuel scenarios: As indicated in the section on vehicle and fuel energy intensity, there will be an ongoing need for assess ments of the potential of alternative vehicles and fuels to meet GHG emission reduction targets. As useful as such analyses are, they often have to make simplifying assumptions that may not prove realistic.
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From page 58... ...
Analy sis of the particular settings in which transit strategies pay off in terms of energy savings and GHG emission reductions is needed. – Rail transit systems have better fuel efficiency per passenger mile than do buses.
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From page 59... ...
System Management and Operations Many regions have implemented elements of intelligent transportation system technologies that could allow greater fine-tuning of traffic flows. To achieve the 20 percent GHG emission reduction potential cited earlier, 14 Almost all intercity rail now operates on tracks that service both passenger and freight trains.
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From page 60... ...
The benefits from a life-cycle maintenance and GHG emission reduction perspective of switching to illumination with light-emitting diodes should be investigated. Largely underinvestigated are practices that could substantially reduce energy requirements for maintenance, such as median and rightof-way plantings that require less energy for mowing.
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Investments in surface transportation mitigation research in two main areas are recommended in this chapter. The first would provide initial guidance to policy makers and practitioners and help shape the direction of the other recommended research areas.
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Criteria for organizing and administering a research program that meets these standards are described in Chapter 5. REFERENCES Abbreviations BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics CBO Congressional Budget Office NRC National Research Council TRB Transportation Research Board Babcock, M., and J
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In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2010, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., pp.
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From page 64... ...
In Transportation Research Record 648, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., pp.
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From page 65... ...
1996. Special Report 246: Paying Our Way: Estimating Marginal Social Costs of Freight Transportation.
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