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Appendix F: Constructing Multiple Paths to Sustainability
Pages 299-320

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From page 299... ... Details of the spending trajectories for Social Security and defense and domestic programs are discussed in Appendixes C and D, respectively. The health trajectories, which are by their very nature more speculative, are discussed in the first section below. Read the entire page →
From page 300... ... In 2025, for example, CBO's path puts Medicare and Medicaid spending at 7.3 percent of GDP and program spending at 5.9 percent of GDP -- that is, 19.2 percent below the extended baseline. Although the study baseline puts Medicare and Medicaid at 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025, which is slightly higher than CBO's extended baseline, the committee still assumed that the zero percent ECG trajectory would put Medicare and Medicaid at 19.2 percent below the study baseline -- that is, at 6 percent of GDP; see Table F-1. Read the entire page →
From page 301... ... /3) , where high represents Medicare and Medicaid expenditures under the high spending trajectory, and low represents program expenditures under the low spending trajectory. Read the entire page →
From page 302... ... All four scenarios allow the federal debt to grow as a percentage of GDP by 0.9 percent from 2011 to 2012; roughly stabilize it from 2012 to 2014; and then reduce it by 0.3 percent from 2014 to 2015, 0.4 percent from 2015 to 2016, 1 percent from 2016 to 2017, 4.3 percent from 2017 to 2018 (a large decrease made possible by a large projected repayment of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds in 2018, which the scenarios apply toward debt reduction) Read the entire page →
From page 303... ... eDomestic mandatory. 0 bSocial Security. Read the entire page →
From page 304... ... to stay within a given delayed revenue trajectory and attain the debt-to-GDP target, combinations of delayed spending paths. Read the entire page →
From page 305... ... For the 10-year delay, this path follows the study baseline until 2022, after which it grows at the same proportional rate as the zero percent ECG spending trajectory. Read the entire page →
From page 306... ... eDomestic mandatory. bSocial Security. Read the entire page →
From page 307... ... eDomestic mandatory. bSocial Security. Read the entire page →
From page 308... ... eDomestic mandatory. bSocial Security. Read the entire page →
From page 309... ... eDomestic mandatory. bSocial Security. Read the entire page →
From page 310... ... eDomestic mandatory. bSocial Security. Read the entire page →
From page 311... ... eDomestic mandatory. bSocial Security. Read the entire page →
From page 312... ... eDomestic mandatory. bSocial Security. Read the entire page →
From page 313... ... eDomestic mandatory. bSocial Security. Read the entire page →
From page 314... ... , none of the delayed scenarios achieves solvency for the Social Security program.2 Delayed Defense and Other Domestic Spending Trajectories With a 5-year delay, for all four scenarios, defense and other domestic spending follows the baseline until 2017. Mimicking the 7-year phase-in (from 2012 to 2019) Read the entire page →
From page 315... ... Tables F-13 through F-18 present details of the delay scenarios. Wholebudget estimates appear in Tables F-13 to F-16, while financial estimates pertaining to the Social Security trust fund appear in Tables F-17 and F-18. Read the entire page →
From page 316... ... APPENDIX F TABLE F-14 Revenues and Outlays Under a 10-Year Delay of the Intermediate-2 Scenario, as Percentages of GDP Selected Soc Def and M and Ma Secb Domc Years Revenues Outlays Interest Deficit Debt 2012 17.9 22.2 4.9 4.7 10.8 1.7 4.3 66.4 2013 18.1 22.2 5.1 4.7 10.2 2.1 4.0 67.6 2014 18.1 22.2 5.3 4.8 9.6 2.5 4.1 69.0 2015 18.3 22.3 5.4 4.8 9.3 2.8 4.0 70.4 2016 18.3 22.6 5.6 4.9 9.1 3.0 4.3 72.1 2017 18.3 22.7 5.7 5.0 8.9 3.1 4.3 73.8 2018 18.3 22.8 5.7 5.1 8.7 3.4 4.5 73.8 2019 18.3 23.4 6.1 5.2 8.6 3.6 5.1 76.1 2020 18.3 23.8 6.4 5.3 8.5 3.6 5.5 78.8 2021 18.4 24.1 6.6 5.4 8.5 3.7 5.7 81.7 2022 20.9 24.1 6.7 5.4 8.4 3.6 3.2 81.8 2023 22.9 24.2 7.0 5.5 8.3 3.5 1.3 79.9 2024 23.4 24.2 7.1 5.5 8.2 3.4 0.8 77.8 2025 23.6 24.1 7.2 5.6 8.1 3.2 0.4 75.4 2026 23.8 24.2 7.5 5.7 8.0 3.1 0.5 73.0 2027 23.9 24.2 7.7 5.6 7.9 3.0 0.3 70.7 2028 23.8 24.4 7.9 5.7 7.8 2.9 0.6 68.7 2029 24.1 24.6 8.2 5.8 7.8 2.8 0.4 66.5 2030 24.2 24.7 8.2 5.9 7.8 2.8 0.5 64.6 2031 24.8 24.8 8.5 5.9 7.8 2.7 0.1 62.3 2032 24.9 24.9 8.6 5.9 7.8 2.6 0.0 60.0 2033 22.7 25.0 8.7 5.9 7.8 2.5 2.3 60.0 2034 23.1 25.3 9.0 5.8 7.8 2.5 2.2 60.0 2035 23.0 25.3 9.1 5.8 7.8 2.5 2.3 60.0 aMedicare and Medicaid. bSocialSecurity. Read the entire page →
From page 317... ... Scenarios, as Percentages of GDP Selected Soc Def and M and Ma Secb Domc Years Revenues Outlays Interest Deficit Debt 2012 17.9 22.2 4.9 4.7 10.8 1.7 4.3 66.4 2013 18.1 22.2 5.1 4.7 10.2 2.1 4.0 67.6 2014 18.1 22.2 5.3 4.8 9.6 2.5 4.1 69.0 2015 18.3 22.3 5.4 4.8 9.3 2.8 4.0 70.4 2016 18.3 22.6 5.6 4.9 9.1 3.0 4.3 72.1 2017 19.9 22.4 5.6 5.0 8.8 3.1 2.5 72.0 2018 20.1 22.4 5.6 5.1 8.5 3.2 2.3 69.8 2019 20.6 22.5 5.9 5.2 8.2 3.3 1.9 69.1 2020 20.8 22.4 6.1 5.3 7.9 3.2 1.6 68.1 2021 20.9 22.3 6.2 5.3 7.6 3.1 1.4 67.1 2022 20.8 21.9 6.3 5.3 7.3 3.0 1.1 65.7 2023 20.8 21.8 6.5 5.4 7.1 2.8 1.0 64.2 2024 20.5 21.6 6.6 5.4 6.8 2.8 1.1 63.0 2025 20.5 21.7 6.6 5.5 6.9 2.6 1.2 61.9 2026 20.4 21.9 6.9 5.6 6.8 2.6 1.5 61.0 2027 20.8 22.0 7.0 5.6 6.9 2.5 1.2 60.0 2028 20.0 22.2 7.2 5.6 6.8 2.5 2.2 60.0 2029 20.1 22.4 7.4 5.7 6.8 2.5 2.2 60.0 2030 20.3 22.5 7.4 5.8 6.8 2.5 2.2 60.0 2031 20.5 22.7 7.6 5.8 6.8 2.5 2.2 60.0 2032 20.5 22.8 7.7 5.8 6.8 2.5 2.3 60.0 2033 20.6 22.8 7.7 5.7 6.8 2.5 2.3 60.0 2034 20.8 23.0 8.0 5.7 6.8 2.5 2.2 60.0 2035 20.7 23.1 8.0 5.7 6.8 2.5 2.3 60.0 aMedicare and Medicaid. bSocialSecurity. Read the entire page →
From page 318... ... APPENDIX F TABLE F-16 Revenues and Outlays Under a 10-Year Delay of the Low Scenario, as Percentages of GDP Selected Soc Def and M and Ma Secb Domc Years Revenues Outlays Interest Deficit Debt 2012 17.9 22.2 4.9 4.7 10.8 1.7 4.3 66.4 2013 18.1 22.2 5.1 4.7 10.2 2.1 4.0 67.6 2014 18.1 22.2 5.3 4.8 9.6 2.5 4.1 69.0 2015 18.3 22.3 5.4 4.8 9.3 2.8 4.0 70.4 2016 18.3 22.6 5.6 4.9 9.1 3.0 4.3 72.1 2017 18.3 22.7 5.7 5.0 8.9 3.1 4.3 73.8 2018 18.3 22.8 5.7 5.1 8.7 3.4 4.5 73.8 2019 18.3 23.4 6.1 5.2 8.6 3.6 5.1 76.1 2020 18.3 23.8 6.4 5.3 8.5 3.6 5.5 78.8 2021 18.4 24.1 6.6 5.4 8.5 3.7 5.7 81.7 2022 20.7 23.8 6.6 5.4 8.3 3.6 3.2 81.8 2023 22.4 23.7 6.8 5.5 8.0 3.5 1.3 79.9 2024 22.7 23.5 6.9 5.4 7.8 3.4 0.8 77.8 2025 22.6 23.0 6.8 5.5 7.6 3.2 0.4 75.4 2026 22.5 22.9 7.0 5.5 7.3 3.1 0.5 73.0 2027 22.4 22.7 7.1 5.5 7.1 3.0 0.3 70.7 2028 22.0 22.6 7.2 5.5 6.9 2.9 0.6 68.7 2029 22.1 22.5 7.4 5.6 6.8 2.8 0.4 66.5 2030 22.0 22.5 7.3 5.6 6.8 2.8 0.5 64.6 2031 22.4 22.5 7.5 5.6 6.8 2.7 0.1 62.3 2032 22.4 22.5 7.5 5.6 6.8 2.6 0.0 60.0 2033 20.2 22.4 7.5 5.6 6.8 2.5 2.3 60.0 2034 20.4 22.6 7.7 5.6 6.8 2.5 2.2 60.0 2035 20.2 22.6 7.7 5.5 6.8 2.5 2.3 60.0 aMedicare and Medicaid. bSocialSecurity. Read the entire page →
From page 319... ... TABLE F-18 Projected Social Security Trust Fund Ratios: Current Law Compared with Four Committee Scenarios Current Law and Four Scenarios 2020 2035 2050 2084 Current Law 315 50 0 0 Low (Option 1) 351 202 100 114 Delayed 5 yrs 322 136 0 0 Delayed 10 yrs 315 107 0 0 Intermediate-1 (Option 2) Read the entire page →
From page 320... ... Because Tables F-17 and F 18 are to be compared with Tables C-1 and C-2 for the "on-time" scenarios, the same conventions and assumptions apply. Specifically, all four tables rely on assumptions of the 2009 Social Security Trustees' Report, rather than the CBO-based study assumptions that are applied in the report other than Chapter 6 and Appendix C Read the entire page →

From page 299...

... Details of the spending trajectories for Social Security and defense and domestic programs are discussed in Appendixes C and D, respectively. The health trajectories, which are by their very nature more speculative, are discussed in the first section below.

Appendix F: Constructing Multiple Paths to Sustainability Pages 299-320

Appendix F: Constructing Multiple Paths to Sustainability
Pages 299-320