Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (2010) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C: Scenarios
Appendix C: Scenarios
Pages 44-51
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From page 44... ...
The fuel consumption of ICEV and HEV stored battery energy and capturing regenerative braking vehicles follows projections from the EIA Annual Energy energy to optimize ICE operation. Outlook 2008, meeting CAFE standards by 2020, with only For vehicles with a single source of stored energy, such as modest improvements in fuel economy beyond this time gasoline, hydrogen, or electric battery, modeling the energy (Figure C.2)
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From page 45... ...
70 Figure C-3 45 60 Fuel economy (mpg) 40 Biofuel production R01653 Corn ethanol 50 35 replaced Cellulosic ethanol 30 40 Gasoline ICEV 25 Biobutanol editable vectors 30 Gasoline HEV 20 Biodiesel 20 one-column size below 15 Figure C-6 10 10 R01653 5 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 vectors editable 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 one-column size below Year Year FIGURE C.5 Biofuel supply for the Biofuels-Intensive Case (Hy FIGURE C.2 Fuel economy for vehicles in the Hydrogen Report drogen Report Case 3)
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From page 46... ...
As battery size increases, gasoline consumption Minimum SOC However, several recent studies have simulated a range of falls and electricity increases. The overall energy efficiency vehicles on a self-consistent basis, including gasoline ICEVs, of the vehicle is higher with larger batteries.
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From page 47... ...
uneditable bitmapped image Figure C.11 shows the resulting gasoline use for PHEV-10 and PHEV-40 vehicles for the Optimistic technology case. National VMT fraction available e below one-column siz for substitution by FIGURE C.8 Gasoline ICEV and HEV gasoline use in the Reference a PHEV using 100 percent electric charge-depleting mode.
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From page 48... ...
The breakeven is the year when annual fuel cost savings balance annual purchase cost differences. All cases assume that charging electricity SENSITIVITY STUDIES costs 8 cents per kWh and that gasoline prices, as in the hydrogen study, increase from $2.70 per gallon in 2010 to The sensitivity of the transition analysis was explored $4.00 per gallon in 2050 (see Figure 4.9)
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From page 49... ...
, 0 20 (gas−PHEV) , –60 flow, $B/yr $B/yr $B/yr Cash 0 Cash flow, $B/yr 2010 20200 2030 2040 –5 –20 Cumulative cash Year Cumulative cash flow, $B –40 2020 2030 2040 flow, $B –100 –60 Year –80 2010 2020 2030 2040 –150 Figure C-18 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year YearR01653 Figure C-16 FIGURE C.15 Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Maximum Practi editable vectors R01653 cal case, Optimistic technical assumptions.
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From page 50... ...
Electricity Price 0.75 1 1.875 $ per kWh 0.5 × Base 1.0 × Base 2.0 × Base Gasoline Price 300 $ per gala 250 Vehicle Incremental Buydown cost $B Electricty Price retail price, $b DOE Goal Optimistic Probable 200 $/kWh PHEV-10c Base 0.87 1 Base 1.13 Oil Price 150 PHEV-40d Base 0.62 Base 1.25 PHEV Increm Price 100 aBaseis DOE's High Price Case (EIA, 2008, Annual Energy Outlook)
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From page 51... ...
For the latter case, GHG emissions were extrapolated beyond 2030, assuming that electricity demand and GHG emissions for electric generation continue to grow at the same rate as between 2006 and 2030. Figure C.24 shows the hydrogen GHG emissions per unit of fuel energy assumed for hydrogen in the 2008 Hydrogen Report.
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